NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +78.1 units profit, from 296 winning NFL picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in Wild Card Weekend:

Rams vs Panthers

Packers vs Bears

Bills vs Jaguars

49ers vs Eagles

Chargers vs Patriots

Texans vs Steelers

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Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers +3.0(-105)

Reasoning

One game-ending missed field goal is what saved the Steelers’ season, but they still deserve their flowers. Without DK Metcalf, easily their best offensive weapon, Aaron Rodgers followed a smart game plan by Arthur Smith, resulting in 26 points, 24 first downs and 390 total yards. It was one of the Steelers’ best offensive performances of the season, and they did it when it mattered most. That’s good news for the Wild Card round considering who their opponent will be.

Pittsburgh has hope thanks to Aaron Rodgers, a legendary coach in Mike Tomlin (19 straight winning seasons, no big deal) and a defense of stars that make big plays when they need to. They also have home-field advantage, at least in the first round. Whenever we analyze a Pittsburgh game, it’s impossible not to mention intangibles. Again, Tomlin has outperformed doubters’ expectations and produced another winning campaign, despite a lack of talent at crucial skill positions and season-long metrics that suggest they shouldn’t have. According to EPA stats, the Steelers rank 14th on offense and just 20th on defense. But it just doesn’t seem to matter. Whether it’s calling the right plays at the right moment, a crafty snap count by Rodgers or a forced fumble by TJ Watt, the Steelers have shown they can play up when the chips are down. Watch their 2nd-half victories over the Lions and Ravens (twice) for further evidence.

The biggest matchup advantage on Monday night is in favor of the visitors. The Texans’ defense has been the standard in the AFC this season, ranked 1st overall in total EPA metrics, including the #1 spot in defensive EPA per pass. Their combination of relentless pressure (they lead the NFL) and a secondary that’s as disciplined and sticky as any in the league makes it nearly impossible for enemy quarterbacks to win the day. Of course, Rodgers is not your average quarterback, but at 42, how successful can he be under constant duress?

The Texans’ offense has underperformed for most of the season, but when they’ve needed to make big plays, they have. Their 23.8 points per game rank 13th, more than enough to outpace their opponents in most contests, considering their defensive prowess. Like the Steelers, they lack a consistent rushing attack (22nd in rush yards per game), but CJ Stroud had far better protection in 2025, a group that was top-8 in sacks allowed and led to solid marks for Stroud in interceptions thrown (also among the best, 8th lowest overall) and a solid-enough 218.1 pass yards per game (14th).

Entering the postseason, few programs have been as tested as Houston. They enter with 9 straight victories, including wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Kansas City and the Chargers. It’s been a rockier road for Pittsburgh, but since this spread remains at the key number of “3” and we expect a lower-scoring battle, the value still lies with the home team.

Texans vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 39.5(-110)

Reasoning

Pittsburgh will be predictably cold, well-under freezing, for this Monday night battle. We wouldn’t have it any other way. While the Steelers’ defense hasn’t exactly played up to its standards (see 2 remarkably bad blown coverages last week against Baltimore, resulting in 2 of the easiest touchdowns you’ll ever see), it’s also clear that the talent is there. Cameron Hayward, the defense’s team captain, was stellar in key moments last Sunday night, stifling Derrick Henry runs and in Lamar Jackson’s face for most of the contest. He had 7 tackles. Others made big plays, too. While the Steelers lack consistency in their secondary, their front-seven is as formidable as any in the NFL. After starting the season well below expectations, they’ve climbed to 12th overall in sacks, accruing 3 more last week against the ultra-elusive Jackson. Houston’s offense is below average (23rd in total EPA metrics), which means the Steelers have a chance to keep this game within distance.

On Monday, they’ll have a greater onus to hold up their team, since the Steelers’ offense will be facing arguably the league’s best unit. Despite finishing the season with a perplexing performance against the Colts (they allowed a Riley Leonard-led offense to drop 30 points on 354 yards — what?), Houston’s defense has been their stalwart unit all season. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a comfortable pocket for nearly the entire game in Week 18, an experience that will almost certainly not repeat in this Wild Card battle. The Texans are ferocious at the line of scrimmage, #1 in the NFL in pressures and 8th overall in sack percentage (8.03%). They’re also top-3 in takeaways and 2nd in turnover margin. If the Steelers’ offense, a group that’s already simplistic and limited (16th in EPA per pass, 26th in rush yards per game), wants to succeed, they’ll need to apply maximum creativity and perfect execution.

The fact that Pittsburgh is led by one of the greatest arms in NFL history gives their offense a shot, but we still don’t feel good about the matchup. Either way, both defenses are in a much better situation. This is our favorite bet of the entire Wild Card Weekend.

Texans vs Steelers best bet: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.

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Chris R. Farley

Player Rushing Yards Pick

A. Rodgers (PIT) - Over 0.5 rush yds(-108)

Reasoning

Raw data-wise, Rodgers has cleared this line in 9 of 16 games this season, including in 3 straight contests. Rodgers was reluctant to use his legs at all early in the season and the goal was longevity. However, we’ve seen a different approach later in the season as the games became more meaningful and it’s become less about longevity and more about getting the yards needed. It was evident in the Week 18 game that Rodgers was not afraid to use his legs and pick up yards. After all, he still has a little bit of burst despite his age and Achilles injury. For Houston, it’s not worth keeping a safety in the box to monitor his rushing upside and Rodgers will lay it all on the line to get a first down should the opportunity present itself. This will be a fun one!

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

C. Kirk (HOU) - Over 16.5 rec yds(-116)

Reasoning

I’m reading between the lines here on this one. Kirk’s receptions line is HEAVILY juiced to over 1.5 across multiple books and when he has 2 receptions this season, he’s cleared this yardage total in 6 out of 7 games. The big reason he should be a factor Monday night is due to his veteran experience, as Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are rookies in their first playoff games. But most importantly, he has a schematic advantage. The Steelers run single-high coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league and Kirk has a massive disparity in his stats when the middle of the field is open compared to closed. On Monday, he should expect the middle of that Steelers defense to be wide open.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

HOU Texans -3.0

Player Rushing Yards

W. Marks (HOU) - Over 56.5 rush yds

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

D. Schultz (HOU) to score a TD

Reasoning

Houston Texans -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-102)

The Texans are simply a great team that probably should have won the AFC South and would have if not for a dreadful 3-5 start. Their defense is incredible. It is a unit that ranked #1 in the NFL overall, #2 in scoring, #6 against the pass, #3 in interceptions and #6 in sacks. Facing a 42-year-old quarterback – even one as accomplished as Aaron Rodgers – is a recipe for total domination. Houston is nothing special on the other side of the ball, but CJ Stroud is a capable quarterback who has lots of big-game experience – including in the NFL playoffs (advanced 1 round in each of his first 2 seasons).

The Steelers do deserve at least some credit for winning their division, but the Ravens, Bengals and Browns were all total disasters. Pittsburgh’s defense will have to play lightyears better than it did in Week 18 against Baltimore, because you know the home team isn’t going to score much against this defense.

Woody Marks over 56.5 rushing yards (-115)

Marks rushed for 64 yards or more in 4 of his last 6 regular-season contests. One exception was a defeat of the Cardinals that was such a blowout (40-20) right from the start that Marks got just 7 carries; the other was the regular-season finale against the Colts that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that the Jaguars were going to crush the Titans and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks almost always delivers whenever his volume of work is at a standard level.

I expect the USC product to get plenty of carries on Monday, as my projected game script has Houston in the lead from start to finish – thus being able to keep the ball on the ground. Marks is going up against a Steelers defense that has given up 113.1 yards per game on 4.3 yards per attempt.

Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown (+245)

Schultz has scored only 3 touchdowns this season, but all 3 have come since the start of November and 2 have come in the last 4 games. The veteran tight end is on a heater heading into the playoffs, which is generally the time of year when he thrives. In 2 postseason outings with Dallas during the 2022 campaign, Shultz hauled in 3 TD passes to go along with 122 yards on 12 receptions. In the 2023 playoffs with Houston, the Stanford product scored a touchdown during wild-card action against Cleveland. Schultz now faces a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends – including 11 touchdowns.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

At the conclusion of the 2025 regular season, our team of NFL handicappers accumulated 296 wins (and 4 pushes) across sides and totals picks for every game, over those 18 weeks our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks have scored +78.1 units of profit so far this season.

NFL Pick	Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (Moneyline/ATS)	151	3	116	+55.4
Totals (Over / Under)	145	1	124	+22.7
Total	296	4	240	+78.1

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.