NFL Picks

There’s a ton of negative press coming out of Miami. Some of that is well-founded and justified, some of it isn’t. The reality is, the Dolphins lost again in Week 2, allowing the Patriots to put 33 points on the board along the way, yet another indictment for Mike McDaniel and his current influence over the Fins’ locker room. The visitors also made fewer mistakes in the 4th quarter, which ended up deciding the contest. 

Offensively, there was much to appreciate about Miami. Tua Tagovailoa completed 26 out of 32 passes (81%) for 315 yards at a 9.8 yards per pass clip. Tyreek Hill finally caught a ball over 30 yards and eclipsed 100 receiving yards, too. Tua had 1 bad interception, but overall the Dolphins offense looked similar to what it once was, minus a productive run game. One area of concern was their offensive line, which struggled blocking on runs and allowed 5 sacks and 5 quarterback hits.

Miami’s defense was also largely horrific for the entire contest. An offense not known for its explosiveness, New England gained 18 first downs and 333 total yards, going 7-12 on 3rd-down conversions and 3-4 in the red zone. The Dolphins’ defensive showings the first two weeks are extremely concerning, to say the least, especially before traveling up to face a juggernaut at Orchard Park.

There is less to say about Buffalo because their Week 2 outcome was predictable. The Bills’ offensive line dominated the Jets all game, enabling 224 rushing yards for an offense that barely needs a run game with Josh Allen under center. Justin Fields eventually got injured, and Tyrod Taylor couldn’t do much better against a Buffalo defense that came ready to dominate, too. We didn’t learn much about the Bills last Sunday, besides the fact that they are still on a different planet than the Jets.

In the last 2 seasons, Buffalo has dominated Miami. 2 games were close, 2 games were not. Oddsmakers think this one will not be close at all, thus a giant spread, but we’re going to stick our necks out for Miami. There is nothing in pro football that makes a team more desperate than the potential of going 0-3. We think they put up some offense and hang around, in what feels like ultimately an inevitable loss.

Dolphins vs Bills prediction: Dolphins +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 12.

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If Miami can stay somewhat consistent offensively, this is a team that could become a darling for “overs” all season, and that’s mostly because of their defense. It’s hard to put into words how bad the Dolphins’ defense was in Week 2. When the Patriots needed a 4th-down conversion, they got it. When they were in the red zone, they scored, and it was the best New England’s run game looked like since December 22 of last season. The Dolphins were able to generate pressure on a few plays, sacking Drake Maye 3 times, but part of that was on a 2nd-year quarterback holding onto the ball for far too long. In short, the Dolphins’ defense is heading to Buffalo without any confidence or belief that they can stymie the Bills at all, and we can’t blame them.

In 2weeks, the Bills have already stacked up 900 total yards. Whether through the air or on the ground, Buffalo’s pass-protection has largely been amazing (Allen has only been sacked twice), and their creative run-blocking schemes have immediately freed up James Cook. The crafty running back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and already has 3 touchdowns.

The biggest question for Thursday’s total is on Miami’s side. In support of points, Tua finally settled in and looked more like himself, generating an 81% completion rate on 9.8 yards per pass. DeVon Achane never had a big run, but he has the same explosiveness and speed that made him so dangerous last season. He had 8 catches for 92 yards. The same can be said for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combined for 11 catches and 177 yards. 

Interestingly, Miami has put up more points every season under Mike McDaniel when they’ve played at Buffalo, not in South Florida. Orchard Park will be in the low-70s and perfect football weather at gametime, so we simply can’t look any other way.

Dolphins vs Bills best bet: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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I was on Khalil Shakir’s receiving yards last week against the Jets on the notion that Sauce Gardner would shadow Keon Coleman, and while that part was correct, the game got out of hand and the Bills went run-heavy in a 30-10 victory. Historically, Shakir has struggled against the Jets and against my better judgment, I disregarded that, but will not let that hamper my Week 3 approach.

Shakir’s reception line opened at 3.5 and has since been bet up to 4.5 at plus-money odds. Assuming that 4 number is a baseline, Shakir is over 40.5 in 9/11 last season when getting 4+ receptions. The TNF game against the Dolphins does reek of a blowout if you look at the spread, but the total sits at 49.5 after opening at 48.5, indicating some semblance of offense from the Dolphins. I believe this 40.5 is an overreaction to Week 2’s 1 reception for 12 yards, which would be his worst outing since 2023. Shakir is over this line against the Dolphins in 3 straight games. Miami ranks dead last this season in EPA/Pass allowed and has the 4th-lowest pressure rate, which benefits Shakir, who is targeted on 32% of routes when Allen is not under pressure.

Both the Steelers and Patriots enter this matchup at Gillette Stadium with 1-1 records. Pittsburgh couldn’t capitalize off its last-minute victory over the Jets in Week 1 as the Steelers were tripped up by the Seahawks at home, 31-17, as 4-point favorites. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers tossed 4 TD passes in the season opener at New York, but the future Hall of Famer was intercepted twice against Seattle and completed 54.5% of his passes. The Patriots outlasted the Dolphins, 33-27, as 2.5-point road underdogs to give Mike Vrabel his first victory as head coach. New England blew an early 12-0 lead as Miami took a 27-23 advantage in the 4th on a punt return for a score. Antonio Gibson took the ensuing kickoff back for a touchdown to put the Pats back in front and they eventually kicked a field goal to put the game away for their first win over the Dolphins since 2022.

Patriots QB Drake Maye is coming off an efficient 82.6% completion rate against the Dolphins, marking the 7th time in his short career he has completed at least 65% of his passing attempts. Since the start of last season, the Patriots are 2-7 at Gillette Stadium, which includes the opening week defeat to the Raiders. New England has won 2 of its last 11 home contests dating back to Week 9 of the 2023 campaign. The Steelers have lost 6 of their last 7 games since last December, while covering only once in this span. Mike Tomlin’s club is 3-5 against the spread in their past 8 contests in the favorite role. The Patriots held off the Steelers, 21-18, as 5.5-point road underdogs in their last matchup in 2023. That game can be thrown out since the starting QBs were Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky. Both teams have negative numbers entering this game as far as recent trends go. Looking past that, the Steelers’ defense should be able to get back on track after getting torched in the first 2 games and that should make the difference.

Steelers vs Patriots prediction: Steelers -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Pittsburgh’s defense closed last season allowing opponents to score 20.8 points per game, ranking 8th in the NFL. The Steelers have yielded 32 and 31 points, 1 of 3 teams to give up at least 30 points in each of the first 2 games. Pittsburgh has easily gone Over the total through 2 weeks with low totals of 38 and 40.5, as Sunday’s total against New England is set at 44.5. The Patriots remained Under the total in their opening week loss to the Raiders, 20-13, on a 44.5 total. New England and Miami eclipsed the Over of 42.5 points in a 33-27 victory by the Pats last Sunday. It marked the 7th Over in the last 9 games for the Pats dating back to last November. New England owns the worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 315 yards per game. Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa each topped the 300-yard passing mark, but the Pats have managed one interception in each game.

To close out the 2024 season, the Steelers hit the Under in 5 of the final 6 contests. The offense has been limited to 17 points or less in 6 of the last 7 games. Granted, Aaron Rodgers has only been a part of 2 of those games, while leading Pittsburgh to 34 points in the season-opening victory over the Jets. This is actually a good spot to look at the Under with this total adjusted up after the Steelers played to 2 Overs on low totals.  The Patriots were 7-1 to the Over at home last season, but finished Under the total against the Raiders in Week 1. Let’s look at this game to finish in the low 20s on each side.

Steelers vs Patriots pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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You may have heard it before, but the Ravens are pretty good against NFC opponents. In the era of Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is 24-2 when the 2-time MVP starts. That’s gone on far too long to ignore, so there must be something to it. The reality is we often find Baltimore stumbling against familiar opponents like the Browns and Steelers, or the Bills (too soon?).

Against unfamiliar opponents, Jackson and his comrades seem to settle in more easily and freely in their playing style. The result has been catastrophic for their NFC foes, with the Eagles last year and the Giants 3 years ago as the only programs to overcome the juggernaut. And the Ravens often win in dominant fashion. Take 2 years ago, for example, the same season where the Lions went 12-5 and ascended to an NFC championship game. When they traveled to Baltimore in Week 7, they were decimated, 38-6. Jackson had 4 total touchdowns and 327 passing yards on just 27 attempts.

History doesn’t always repeat, but the Ravens seemed to return to form last Sunday; that’s not a good sign for Detroit. After a slow-moving first half, Baltimore dominated Cleveland and covered a 12-point spread by double digits. Their defense was particularly effective, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass to Joe Flacco. 

Of course, Detroit was even more impressive in Week 2, obliterating the hapless Bears and posting a 52-point scoreboard in a loud response to their Week 1 failure. Detroit may not be of the exact same caliber this season, but they’re still good enough to stomp on opponents at home.  On the road will likely be a different story, especially against a Ravens’ team that gets to stay in Charm City, rest and refine their product for 2 weeks leading into this battle. Detroit is an above-average team, but the Ravens are a different animal in these scenarios.

Lions vs Ravens best bet: Ravens -4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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It would be easy to expect an Over in this matchup because of the most obvious factor: what happened last week. Baltimore and Detroit combined for 93 points against their respective opponents in Week 2. But both were against subpar defenses, and both were at home, too. We’re not suggesting the Lions can’t be productive and explosive on the road, we saw plenty of evidence of that last season (31 points per game). Then again, in their 1 road spot this season, it was less than adequate. And the Lions are different.

While a franchise like the Bears can occasionally get blown out by Detroit, better defenses may not find it as difficult opposing Jared Goff and company. The Lions lost 2 stalwart offensive linemen in the offseason. A younger, newly formed offensive line was completely dominated in Week 1 at Green Bay. Contrarily, through 2 weeks PFF ranks Chicago the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL. Last week, the Lions were super explosive (500 total yards), but they had a damn good matchup, too. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense ranks 3rd overall, and their front 7 is due positive regression (they’re currently 29th in sack rate). At home, Monday Night Football provides an inviting spot for that regression.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense will score, we’re bullish about that, but there’s a real chance that the Lions are greatly limited. We’ll play contrarian and side with the Under.

Lions vs Ravens prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The lone undefeated team in the AFC South is the Indianapolis Colts at 2-0, as they hit the road for the first time this season on Sunday to face the winless Tennessee Titans. The Colts rolled past the Dolphins in the season opener, 33-8 as QB Daniel Jones threw for 272 yards and was responsible for 3 touchdowns (1 passing and 2 rushing). Indianapolis had to work for its 2nd victory, defeating Denver in the final seconds on a 45-yard game-winning field goal, 29-28. Jones tossed 316 yards through the air, while RB Jonathan Taylor amassed 165 yards on the ground for the Colts.

The Titans are seeking their first win under rookie QB Cam Ward following a pair of losses to the Broncos and Rams. To be fair, Tennessee hung around in both games, but it has scored only 1 touchdown so far. In Sunday’s home defeat to Los Angeles, Ward threw his first career TD pass as the Titans led the Rams, 16-13, late in the 3rd quarter. LA outscored Tennessee 20-3 the rest of the way for the 33-19 victory and cover as 5.5-point road favorites. Ward has failed to reach 200 passing yards in each of his first 2 pro starts. Following 112 passing yards in his debut at Denver, he slightly improved against the Rams with 175 yards. The more telling number is his completion percentage improvement, going from 42.9% against the Broncos to 57.6% against the Rams.

Last season, the Colts swept the Titans, extending Indianapolis’ winning streak over Tennessee to 4 games since the start of 2023. Indianapolis won all 4 games by 8 points or less, including back-to-back 3-point victories in Nashville. In 2024, Indianapolis compiled a 3-6 road record, including a 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 against the spread mark as a favorite. The Titans posted a 4-2-1 ATS mark as a home underdog in head coach Brian Callahan’s first season before losing last week.

Here’s an interesting angle to take on the Titans heading into this week — since 2013, underdogs that are 0-2 have put together an incredible 44-24 ATS (64.7%) mark. Let’s look at the Titans here to cash as a home underdog and at least keep this one within a field goal.

Colts vs Titans prediction: Titans +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Both Indianapolis and Tennessee have split their totals through each of the first 2 games. The Colts hit the Under in their opening-week blowout of the Dolphins, prior to an easy Over on a 43 total in the 29-28 thriller against Denver. Tennessee and Denver never threatened the Over in Week 1, as the Broncos held off the Titans 20-12 on a 42.5 total. The total dropped slightly against the Rams, but the huge 2nd half for LA helped drill the Over of 41 in a 33-19 victory in Nashville.

Daniel Jones ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards at 588, sitting behind New York’s Russell Wilson, who is coming off a 450-yard performance against Dallas to rank 1st. In the 2 matchups last season, the game in Nashville finished under the total of 41.5 as the Colts snuck by the Titans, 20-17. In the 2nd meeting in Indianapolis, the Colts outlasted Tennessee, 38-30, on a 43.5 total. The yardage per game numbers are overwhelmingly in the Colts’ favor, as Indianapolis is 2nd in the league at 445.5, while Tennessee sits in last at 192.5.

The Colts are riding an 8-2 Over run in the last 10 games dating back to last November. In each of the past 4 games away from Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis has drilled the Over. The Titans are in the midst of a 6-3 Over stretch in the past 9 contests. Tennessee has hit 3 consecutive home Overs, allowing at least 23 points in each of those games. Through 2 games, Titans kicker Joey Slye has knocked through 4 FGs in each loss. The good news is Tennessee has put up 4 and 5 scores in the first 2 games, but they just need to mix in some TDs. The Colts kicked 5 FGs in last week’s win over the Broncos and 4 FGs in the opener against the Dolphins. These teams are scoring, but once they can convert those FGs into TDs, there’s no reason to think they can’t cash the Over on Sunday.

Colts vs Titans pick: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Two 0-2 teams clash on Sunday Night Football, and while one was expected to be in this position, the other has never been winless at this juncture. In fact, at no point during the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era have the Chiefs started 0-2, until now. 

After Week 2, oddsmakers and NFL critics are feeling better about the New York Giants. While no one expects a Super Bowl this season, they put up 37 points on the Cowboys in Dallas last week, finally showing signs of life on an offense that’s been dead for a decade. Russell Wilson looked like the 2013 Super Bowl version of himself, hoisting up one long ball after another and connecting with Malik Nabers frequently. The dynamic 2nd-year wideout tallied 167 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. The Giants’ defense wasn’t quite as stingy, but they were hitting hard and their front 7 made life difficult for Dak Prescott all game.

Normally, even with New York showing signs of improvement, this would be an automatic wager on the Chiefs. After all, the legendary tandem of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have repeated Super Bowl visits in 5 of the last 6 seasons, so they know a thing or 2 about rising to the occasion. But last week was another indication of how difficult life currently is for Kansas City, particularly on offense. Against the Eagles, Kansas City’s offense looked good in moments, but they also made mistakes in the worst spots. A turnover at the goal line that would have meant the go-ahead score, and their inability to convert on 3rd downs (they were just 4-12) ended up being the story of the game.

The Giants’ defense is good enough to cause turmoil for an offensive line that has not protected Mahomes well enough (4 sacks, 18 QB hits in the first 2 weeks), and the Giants’ offense has enough momentum to re-create some magic and hang with last season’s AFC champions. We expect another close game, as nothing seems to be coming easy this year for the Mahomes and company.

Chiefs vs Giants prediction: Giants +6 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We realize the Giants looked like the greatest show on turf last Sunday, but there’s a fat chance of that repeating. Firstly, New York will go up against the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense that limited the Super Bowl champions to just 216 yards last weekend. Ultimately, Philadelphia did enough to win the game, but even all-world runner Saquon Barkley was kept to just 88 yards on the ground. So far, the Giants have virtually no rushing attack, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and 79 rushing yards per game. That means Kansas City can focus solely on interfering with Russell Wilson‘s comfort in the pocket. In Week 1, we saw that make a huge difference in the Giants’ production, and we doubt the home team will fly the same way they did against a porous Dallas resistance in Week 2.

On the other side, although the Giants’ defense is still under development and needs to limit offenses in the red zone (they are 31st in this category, allowing a touchdown on 85.71% of red zone possessions), their talent matches up well with Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has been rushed and hurried constantly for 2 straight games, possibly a consequence of a more shallow offensive line following losses during the offseason. Most notably, Mahomes no longer has Joe Thuney, the all-pro left guard who protected his blind side. He’s also arguably the best pass protector in the NFL. The Giants’ front 7 has yet to completely dominate, but this is a good setup for them to do so. Most Chiefs games may look the same this season — low scoring, defensive battles, and this one is no exception.

Chiefs vs Giants pick: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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