NFL Picks

Since the Falcons shocked bettors and beat the Rams on Monday Night Football, the race for the NFC South crown just got more complicated. In simpler terms, Tampa’s chances of making the playoffs just decreased significantly. Even if they win this game on Saturday, they need the Saints to knock off the Falcons (at Atlanta) on Sunday to win the division. 

Regardless, motivation will be at its peak on Saturday afternoon as these 2 NFC South rivals clash in the final week of the 2025 NFL season. The Bucs’ demise has been startling. Halfway through the season, they looked like one of the league’s most dangerous outfits (they were 6-2 entering Week 10). They have only 1 victory since, and December has churned out one perplexing loss after another (at home fails against New Orleans and Atlanta and last week falling to the Fins in Miami). They also dropped their first clash against the Panthers just 2 weeks ago, thanks to a Baker Mayfield interception on what could have been the game-winning drive. Since Week 10, they’ve been the favorite in 6 out of 8 contests, a designation they’ll receive once again at home in this crucial battle. Not once have they covered the spread since Week 10, either.

Injuries to key players on both sides of the ball have been their biggest challenge, but we also can’t ignore the absence of Liam Coen, the distinguished offensive coordinator who left to coach the Jaguars this season. Jacksonville now sits 12-4 and is one of the top seeds in the AFC.

The Panthers have rarely played consistently well this season, either, but their journey to the top of the NFC South has been far more impressive than their rival. Halfway through the season, they were 4-4, a nice surprise considering their downtrodden years prior. Key wins at Lambeau Field, at Atlanta, at home against the Rams and most recently against the Bucs have carved a path for Dave Canales and his roster. Much to the chagrin of Tampa and their other rivals, the Panthers simply won’t go away. Anchored by a defense that plays its best in the clutch (they’re 13th in opponent red-zone success) and a formidable rushing attack (11th in rush yards per game), they’ve only lost consecutive games once this season, in Weeks 1 and 2. In his 3rd year, Bryce Young has also emerged as a more dependable thrower, although his numbers are never eye-popping (21st in yards, 24th in turnovers, 23rd in total QBR).

It’s really hard to support Tampa right now, especially as the chalk. They’re just 2-7 against the spread as the favorite this season, while Carolina revels in the underdog role (8-5 ATS). All things considered, the Panthers feel like the right side to be on.

Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction: Panthers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Saturday’s opener is set at a total that’s in limbo by all standards, and it’s not-coincidentally a tick below the same number (43) that their Week 16 battle ended on. At this point, neither team is trustworthy on offense. 

Tampa started the season as one of the NFL’s hottest offenses. Their 6-2 run was highlighted by many big Baker Mayfield moments, catalyzed by a receiving corps that was clearly one of the deepest and most talented in the league. In those 8 games, Baker totaled 210+ pass yards in 5, with the offense soaring over 345+ total yards in the same number of games. An early injury to Mike Evans changed the offense, though, taking away the Bucs’ #1 threat. Starting running back Bucky Irving had to sit out in October and returned in the final weekend of November, too, further hampering an offense that was a top unit early on. Off and on injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Tristan Wirfs, didn’t help either.

Fast forward to Week 18, and the Bucs are much healthier, with Evans, Irving, and Wirfs free of any injury designation heading into Saturday. But that’s been the case for a few weeks now, and something just feels off. Of course, Mayfield might not admit it but a left shoulder injury in Week 12 might still be slowing him down. No Liam Coen, their first-class play-caller in seasons past, might be limiting their potential, too. Tampa has failed to surpass 301 total yards in 4 of 8 games.

The Panthers’ offense is subpar by most metrics. They have a good ground game, rated in the top half of the NFL in nearly every category (122.4 per game, 11th), but they rarely produce points (18.6 on average, 27th), nor do they ever create big plays (27th in points and yards per play). They’re average, which means much better, in most of the same categories defensively, and in their first clash with the Bucs, they held Baker and company to just 20 points and 296 total yards (along with a pathetic 4.9 yards per play).

This total is rightly low but not low enough. Considering what’s on the line, the animosity between 2 rivals and the lack of consistent production from both offenses, there’s only one way to look.

Panthers vs Bucs pick: Under 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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NFL schedule makers have done it again, as 2 NFC titans will clash for not only the claim of NFC West champions but the #1 seed in the conference. Both rosters are rounding into their best form to end the season. As if this game wasn’t hard enough to predict, the home team has been great in front of their fans, 5-2 straight up, while the Seahawks have been road warriors all season (7-1). In a span of 2 days, Seattle has moved from a slight underdog to a slight favorite. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if that switched again before kickoff. 

Look at either program, and you will see nothing but wins throughout December and beyond. After a 2-point loss to the Rams in Week 11, Seattle has won 6 straight games. They had a memorable comeback win against the Rams in the rematch and proceeded to display impressive margin victories over the Vikings, Falcons and Panthers in recent weeks. Just 2 years in, coach Mike Macdonald has taken full advantage of his defensive talent, the side of the ball where he has the most expertise, and newcomer Sam Darnold proved his worth immediately. He’s looking to achieve his 2nd straight 14-3 season with 2 different teams. Even better, the Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, sprinting full speed towards the postseason with very few holes on their roster. Their offense has sputtered here and there down the stretch (now 16th in total offensive EPA), but they have more than enough firepower to get the job done when they need to.

Like the Seahawks, the 49ers’ last loss was against the Rams in Week 10, but since then, they’ve been relatively flawless. An easier schedule has certainly helped, but with Brock Purdy back in the fold, San Francisco has gone 6-0, winning by an average margin of +14.3 points per game. That doesn’t happen by accident. Even with virtually no defense last Sunday, the 49ers scored at will on the Bears at home, putting up 42 points and going 5-5 in the red zone. Their Achilles heel will continue to be their defense, which was heavily injured midway through the season, but their offense is firing on all cylinders (now 6th in total EPA).

This is a very tough pick and would probably work better as a teaser (San Francisco from +1.5 to +7.5 feels ideal), but since we must pick a side, we’ll go with the visitors, who are a more complete operation right now.

Seahawks vs 49ers prediction: Seahawks -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There is no doubt that the Seahawks are one of the most complete rosters in football, although their offense has regressed a little down the stretch. Underwhelming opponents like Tennessee and the banged-up Colts have been less demanding matchups, which may have something to do with the underperformance. On Saturday, the situation will be entirely different, and they’ll be facing a San Francisco defense that’s been allowing plenty of production from their enemies lately.

The 49ers’ home win against the Bears, who were a fellow threat for the #1 seed, was impressive in Week 17, but they had no answer for the visitors’ offense. The Bears put up 440 yards on the Niners’ resistance on Sunday night, par for the course for Robert Saleh’s group this season. Early on, they weren’t great, but since they lost Fred Warner in Week 6, the difference is glaring. In the preceding games, the San Francisco defense allowed 475 yards to the Texans, 488 to the Cardinals, 306 to the lowly Titans and 312 to the Colts with 44-year-old Phillip Rivers at quarterback. In short, the Seahawks will have their chances on Saturday night.

Where this total will finish will likely depend on the other side of the ball. The Seattle defense is ranked 2nd in total EPA behind only the Texans, who are a historic unit this season. In Week 1, before the Seahawks’ defense had a chance to round into form, the 49ers got the better of the 2 programs, winning 17-13 in a close battle. San Francisco still gained 384 yards and 24 first downs on that day, but we have reason to believe they won’t be quite as potent in Week 18. Seattle’s defense is for real, ranked 1st in opponent yards per pass and rush, and no team allows fewer explosive plays. Just like he did during his tenure in Baltimore, Macdonald has instilled discipline and moxie in his roster. We like them to show up fiery for this nighttime matchup, which should slow down scoring right from the opening kickoff.

As much as we’d like to see both offenses light up the scoreboard, we’re fading the market in this one. Saleh and Macdonald know how to coach up their guys for playoff football, which is the exact feel this game will have.

Seahawks vs 49ers best bet: Under 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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Although Minnesota had a disappointing season, the Vikings are finishing strong to end the campaign. Now, Minnesota hosts Green Bay, who is looking to end a 3-game slide even though the Packers are headed to the postseason at 9-6-1. The Pack will hit the road for the first round of the playoffs trying to get on track after losing the last 3 games to the Broncos, Bears, and Ravens. Green Bay led in the fourth quarter against Denver and Chicago, but played without QB Jordan Love in last Saturday’s 41-24 defeat to Baltimore.

Love was a full participant in practice on Wednesday as his status is up in the air for Sunday. He has led Green Bay to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons as starter, although they have not played any of those games at Lambeau Field. The Packers head into Week 18 owning a dreadful 5-10-1 ATS mark, with the lone underdog cover coming in the Thanksgiving victory at Detroit. Minnesota has covered four consecutive games since an 0-4 ATS slump to close out November. The Vikings beat the Lions last Thursday, 23-10 as 7-point home underdogs, while forcing 6 turnovers in spite of the passing game producing very little yardage.

In the first matchup at Lambeau Field in Week 12, the Packers cruised past the Vikings as 6.5-point favorites. Minnesota was held to 10 first downs, 145 yards, and a pair of 50+ yard field goals, as Green Bay avenged a pair of losses from last season. However, there is a good chance Love may sit and rest for the Wild Card round. The Vikings certainly want to end on a 5-game winning streak and avoid a sweep to the Packers, so let’s roll with Minnesota on Sunday.

Packers vs Vikings prediction: Vikings -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Minnesota’s offense has been non-existent the last two weeks, but somehow the Vikings did enough to beat the Giants and Lions. After scoring 65 points in a pair of victories over the Commanders and Cowboys, the Vikings posted a total of 39 points in the past two games. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy hopes to play after suffering a right hand injury in the Week 16 win over the Giants. Backup Max Brosmer threw for 51 yards against the Lions, but after taking away yardage from seven sacks, Minnesota finished with 3 passing yards. However, the Vikings took advantage of 6 Detroit turnovers for the win as Minnesota moved to 7-1 to the Under in the last 8 games.

On the other side, the Packers are on a 4-1 Over run the last five games, including last week’s loss against Baltimore. Green Bay played without QB Jordan Love, who is questionable for Sunday, and the Packers will also be without All-Pro LB Micah Parsons as well. In last Saturday’s loss to Baltimore, Green Bay yielded a whopping 4 rushing TDs to Derrick Henry. As for this matchup, Sunday’s total dropped to 35.5 considering Brosmer may start again for Minnesota and Love may sit for Green Bay. Considering these teams have nothing to play for since the Packers are going on the road in the first round and the Vikings are eliminated, let’s look for another low-scoring affair between these division rivals.

Under 35.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 35.