NFL Picks

Thursday night games are always tough to predict. In general, there are more outlier results than most contests. Take, for example, the last three weeks, when the 49ers, Giants, and Bengals all won outright as considerable underdogs. This game provides an even tougher challenge to handicap, since the Chargers and Vikings are wholly unfamiliar opponents that only face each other once every four years. Adding to the puzzle is the fact that both outfits are entering Week 8 following losses at home.

From a coaching perspective, this is a very evenly matched battle. Jim Harbaugh’s prowess as a football coach is common knowledge at this point, a former quarterback who’s as good as any head-man at cultivating his franchise leader, and Harbaugh’s teams are usually known for their playing tough, hard-hitting style. Kevin O’Connell is right there with his elder, one of the NFL’s best young minds who produced multiple playoff rosters with multiple quarterbacks in just four years at the helm. 

The most significant difference between the Chargers and Vikings is health. LAC is undergoing a crisis, with important players like left tackle Joe Alt and linebacker Khalil Mack now missing multiple games. Their running back room has also been decimated. Najee Harris was out before the season began and their promising rookie, Omarion Hampton, is on the injured reserve. In Week 7 they only ran for 54 yards against the Colts, forcing Justin Herbert to throw 55 times in what ended up being a blowout loss. 

Minnesota has their share of injuries too (linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, running back Aaron Jones, center Ryan Kelly) but they’re in a better overall position. The Vikings’ depth has proved formidable. Carson Wentz will make his fourth start of the season on Thursday and he’s mostly played well, and O’Connell’s roster still has game-changing star power on both sides of their roster. We can’t support the direction of the home team here.

Vikings vs Chargers prediction: Vikings +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Predicting the total may be even more difficult between two unfamiliar teams, but the Chargers and Vikings both have similar patterns of performance. Most weeks each offense finds itself scoring 20 or more points. The Chargers have eclipsed the 20-point mark in five out of seven games, whereas the Vikings have done so in five out of six. Both rosters came into the season known for their defensive prowess, but injuries have held each unit back.

So far, Minnesota would qualify as the better resistance, permitting just 20.8 points and 301.7 yards per game, both top-10 marks. But the Chargers aren’t far behind, permitting 23.3 points (17th) and just 315.9 yards per game (13th). Neither defense limits opposing run games as well, particularly the Chargers. The Vikings are 15th in opponent yards per carry (4.2) but the Chargers are a pitiful 28th, allowing 5.1 yards on each run. 

We like that for both offenses on Thursday. In each case, neither Justin Herbert nor Carson Wentz can depend on their rushing attacks on a weekly basis, both ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rush yards per game. This matchup presents a plus-opportunity for both ground games, while Wentz and Herbert will both want to avenge performances from last Sunday where they threw multiple interceptions in a loss. Thursday’s forecast in Los Angeles is forecasted to be clear with barely any wind, just another beautiful night in southern California. This number sits in “no man’s land,” between key numbers for low-scoring and high-scoring projections, but we like the offenses to eventually thrive.

Vikings vs Chargers pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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The Packers have been unimpressive now for four straight weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, which feel like a century ago, Green Bay looked like they might have one of the best rosters in the NFL, anchored by their newest x-factor in Micah Parsons. But since two impressive wins at home, it’s been less than stellar. The Packers lost at Cleveland in Week 3, allowing Joe Flacco to score 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points. Then they tied with Dallas in overtime, then they barely got by the hapless Bengals and Cardinals. Jordan Love has been consistent, but that doesn’t mean it’s been anything above average. Through six weeks he ranks 13th with 1,438 passing yards and 15th with 10 touchdowns. Perhaps his greatest quality so far is he doesn’t turn over the ball, submitting just two interceptions entering Week 7.  The Packers eventually seem to find ways to score, thriving on third downs (1st, 49.33%), fourth downs (8th, 71.43%), and in red-zone TD-rate (5th, 72%). But they’ve also mostly faced pedestrian defenses. When they have faced above average defenses (CLE, AZ), it hasn’t been pretty (230 and 262 total yards).

The Steelers are a mirror image of the Packers offensively, with above average marks (25 points per game, 12th) and at their best on third downs (8th) and in the red zone (4th). The difference in this game is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers undoubtedly cares a lot about this game. In the years to come he will be memorialized as a first ballot Hall of Famer because of his time in Green Bay, but he also still holds resentment and regret from his time there. He also gets to face his former coach, the same guy who he had plenty of sideline battles and drama with. Following a loss, we love the Steelers to show up for their quarterback, to wreak havoc on defense, and to expose a Green Bay program that’s been regressing for weeks.

Packers vs Steelers best bet: Steelers +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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Normally we would look to fade defense in a battle like this. At face value, this is Green Bay’s current stud-quarterback against their former stud quarterback, so a battle of two elite arms slicing and dicing the opposing resistance is the built-in narrative that comes with these clashes. We don’t see that happening in this case. Firstly, while the Green Bay defense has had its head-scratching moments, they play well when they’re in a good spot and/or they’re motivated. Weeks 1 and 2 were prime examples of that, squashing last year’s NFC championship game contestants in consecutive matches. Last week they turned up the heat on Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals when they needed to, led by a monstrous performance from Micah Parsons (three sacks, four tackles for a loss, five QB-hits). Pro Football Focus ranks Parsons as easily the best edge defender in the NFL, while Rashan Gary ranks top-11 against the run and others on their front-seven grade highly. We expect them to come after Rodgers and his colleagues.

The Steelers will look to do the same. Following a startling Week 7 upset where Joe Flacco played like a 25 year old, Pittsburgh’s defense was beyond humbled, forfeiting 33 points and 47 points to a Bengals’ offense that was anemic leading into that battle. The duo of Cameron Hayward and TJ Watt will look to avenge that failure from a week ago, and we like how they match-up against a Packers’ offense that hasn’t been explosive on the ground (4 yards per carry, 22nd) and uses their quarterback fewer than 29 other teams (30th in pass-play percentage). The Steelers, who are top-6 in sack-rate (8.49%) can expose a Green Bay front that’s very average (13th in sacks allowed). Against the only elite front-seven they faced this season (CLE), Love was sacked five times. Pittsburgh is forecasted to be chilly with a chance of rain; perfect weather conditions for a clash between two historic franchises with two defenses ready to pounce.

Packers vs Steelers prediction: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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The Washington Commanders, who have been suffering through a few key injuries, are really going through a tough time right now. Heading into Week 7 they were already without their top-two wideouts, Deebo Samuel and Terry McClaurin, both of whom may sit again in Week 8. They were already missing Noah Brown, who’s currently on the injured reserve. Against the Cowboys things turned for the worst when star quarterback Jayden Daniels went down with a hamstring injury. Considering that Daniels already missed time this season and the franchise can’t afford to lose the former LSU quarterback long-term, trusted medical professionals project Daniels will sit at least 2-3 weeks. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Commanders, who will likely start Marcus Mariota in Week 8, since they have a road-spot against one of (if not the) best teams in the NFL on Monday night. The Chiefs started off 2025 in rocky fashion but they are quickly becoming the same program that’s made three straight Super Bowls. In some ways, they look even better than those teams.

Week after week, important Chiefs’ players have returned from injury or suspension, and each week it’s meant better results from Mahomes and his teammates. In Week 7 it was Rashee Rice who returned, further aiding a Kansas City roster that’s already reaching its apex less than halfway through the season. In one of the most disparate box scores you’ll ever see, the Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 434-95 in total yards and, get ready for it, 30-3 in first downs. Of course the Raiders are a complete dumpster-fire and it was hardly a surprise to see a dominant Chiefs’ win, but it was akin to a Super Bowl outfit against a college team. We just don’t see it very often in the modern NFL.

The Commanders are far better than the Raiders overall, but in their current predicament we’re not sure if it’s enough to cover this line. In two starts Mariota has been a decent back-up for Daniels (363 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception). But last week against a motivated Dallas-defense, he instantly proved why he’s a huge step down from #5, throwing a hellacious interception and unable to move the offense in Daniels’ absence. Aside from left tackle Josh Simmons, who’s dealing with something mysterious that’s keeping him off the field (Andy Reid has yet to expand on what’s happening), the Chiefs are completely healthy, at home, and look as potent and buttoned up as they ever have. The choice is clear.

Commanders vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5.

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Although Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will always get more flowers, what their defense has done the last two weeks may be the most impressive. At home against the Lions in Week 6, an offense that’s typically a juggernaut against any opponent, Kansas City held Jared Goff and company to just 297 total yards and 18 first downs. Last week the Raiders never had a chance, earning an unbelievably low 3.2 yards per play and just 3 total first downs for the entirety of the contest. Las Vegas also went 0-7 on third down and didn’t reach the red-zone once.  At home, the Kansas City defense is clearly at its best. Even if we take away a scoreless showing from the Raiders, Kansas City is holding opponents to just 21 points per game at Arrowhead. 

Of course, teams that scored more against KC were led by significantly better offenses. Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts both found some success in Weeks 1 and 2, even though the Eagles only gained 216 yards. The Commanders, who might be without their three most important offensive starters, are in a very vulnerable position, one that simply cannot mimic what LAC or Philadelphia brought to the table.

On the other side, the Commanders have a respectable defense that ranks 18th overall on Pro Football Focus and permits 24.3 points per game (21st). In general they are good, not great, but head coach Dan Quinn was brought to Washington because of his defensive acumen and leadership. Against a Kansas City offense that’s humming, Quinn knows that their only chance to win is an A+ performance on the defensive side of the ball. Since we don’t anticipate much from Washington on offense, there’s only one way we can look.

Commanders vs Chiefs pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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