NFL Picks

Both Tampa Bay and Houston impressed in Week 1, albeit for different reasons. The Texans didn’t get a win but that doesn’t mean it was all bad news. Their defense looked in heavyweight form, limiting the Rams to just 74 rushing yards and they were in Matthew Stafford’s face for 4 quarters. Stafford and an elite group of receivers eventually figured it out enough to put up 2 touchdowns, but the Rams couldn’t eke out a score in the 1st or 4th quarters. Houston’s offense is a different story.

Surprisingly, they ran for 114 yards, but CJ Stroud faced much of the same pressure that stunted his 2024 progress. Sacked 3 times and just 2-9 in 3rd downs, Stroud struggled to accelerate his offense’s production when the team needed it most. To be fair, they were up against an underrated Rams defense, one that plainly exhibited its scary potential in Week 1. But Stroud wasn’t happy, telling the media that it was a “wake-up call.” The Texans’ chances of making any noise this season feel decreased already, with no evidence suggesting things will change along their offensive line. 

However, Monday night’s contest may offer a better opportunity. Tampa’s offense is capable of explosive plays, but they didn’t quite look like themselves in Week 1. Perhaps the loss of Liam Coen and/or the absence of Tristan Wirfs (currently recovering from a knee surgery), by far the most important piece of their offensive line, matter more than we thought. Baker still managed to overcome a feisty Atlanta defense and win on Sunday, but they were considerably outgained (258-360). Speaking of which, Michael Penix Jr. threw all over the Bucs defense last Sunday with 298 yards on 7 yards per pass. Tampa’s defensive line, a group that struggled last season, mustered just 1 sack and 3 QB hits. They were stingy against the run, but the Bucs looked below average against the pass. At home and with Stroud rallying the troops, we like the Texans to come out on fire, from the 1st quarter, and that should make all the difference.

Bucs vs Texans prediction: Texans -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have a feeling that Texans games will look very similar all season. Immediately, against a very good defense, we saw the setbacks of Houston’s offensive line, a group that couldn’t protect CJ Stroud from having to run from danger all game against the Rams. According to the New York Times, Stroud faced pressure on 41% of plays. He was also sacked 3 times and hit another 7. Without Laremy Tunsil to protect his blind side, Stroud is in the most dangerous pocket of his young career. The Texans ran the ball better than we thought they would last Sunday (114 yards), but they will face a Tampa Bay defense that held a potent Falcons’ rushing attack to just 69 yards in their opener. For years, the Bucs have been a known commodity in run defense (looking at you, Vita Vea), and this season looks no different.

Defensively, Houston was very impressive in Week 1, despite the loss. They held the Rams to just 2.9 yards per carry, 72 in total, and sacked Matthew Stafford 3 times. Of course, like Tampa, the Rams have exceptional pass catchers and Stafford was able to produce at a good enough level to score 14 points. He also converted 7-13 3rd downs. Overall, Houston’s defense protected the team’s margin throughout their first contest, a responsibility that doesn’t seem too big for them at this juncture. After opening at 46.5, this opening total fell quickly. Going to Houston will be a tough test for any offense this season, while the Texans’ offense has too many issues to trust in a higher total.

Buccaneers vs Texans pick: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Schultz went for 3 receptions and 28 yards on 5 targets in Week 1, but the shocker was his 54% of offensive snaps. I watched the game fairly closely (being the Rams fan that I am) and was waiting for him to pop, but the Rams defense was swarming over the middle of the field. This time around, Schultz should see a snap boost with Cade Stover out now with a broken foot. Despite Schultz landing on 28 yards against a Week 1 line of 30.5, this line still sits at 35.5 with some sites flashing as high as 39.5. That alone should tell you that the market is bullish in Schultz in Week 2, and for good reason.

The Buccaneers are a much softer defensive scheme and showed major signs of withering against tight ends in 2024. Last season after their bye, tight ends averaged 6.4 targets for 4.6 receptions and 49 yards per game against Tampa Bay. Schultz led the team in targets Week 1 and I’m expecting him to be near the top again, with 6 or 7 targets likely being the case. Kyle Pitts flashed against Tampa Week 1, finishing with 8 targets, 7 receptions and 59 yards, so that indicates that Schultz has a much easier matchup in Week 2. The Texans lack a real second option in the passing game, and until that person steps up, Schultz props are ripe for the picking. 

The data doesn’t do justice to how well Justin Herbert and the Chargers played last Friday night. Battling their divisional foe and reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers conquered their foe in methodical fashion. Herbert played one of the greatest games of his career, answering the Chiefs at every turn, leading scoring drives in every quarter. Along the way, the LA defense recorded 8 quarterback hits, 2 sacks, 3 tackles for a loss and 4 deflected passes. Jim Harbaugh’s defense was flying all over the field, unrelenting in their pursuit of the ball and permitting just 5 out of 14 conversion on Kansas City’s 3rd downs. It was a comprehensive showing from the Chargers and a startling indication of Harbaugh’s impact on the franchise. Herbert looked different, more confident and aggressive, and it made the Bolts feel like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We were extremely impressed.

Harbaugh and Herbert now bring their roster to Las Vegas, against a Raiders team that also looked better than expected in Week 1. Of course, Pete Carroll’s new team was facing a Patriots program that had a ton of new parts, including a young quarterback only in his 2nd season. Raiders’ QB Geno Smith again proved why Carroll views him as such a valuable asset, carrying the offense on his shoulders and maintaining a lead throughout the game, even in hostile territory. Eventually the Patriots slowly caught up and the game was close at the end, but Vegas held on in an otherwise uneventful opener. In truth, besides a crisp performance by Geno Smith, it was a sloppy game. The Raiders got off to a nice start, but it wasn’t nearly as impressive as what we saw from the Chargers. With momentum and renewed optimism in the direction of their franchise, we love the Chargers to cover a short line.

Chargers vs Raiders prediction: Chargers -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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The Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers have only experienced success against the Raiders, putting up 34 and 22 points against their division rival last season, both wins. We think the narrative will stay the same — the Chargers are still the better team, but we saw some aspects of the Raiders’ defense that we really liked in Week 1. Firstly, they were aggressive all game, sacking Drake Maye 4 times and permitting just 60 rushing yards. They were also good when it mattered, limiting the Patriots to just 1-3 in the red zone and 4-14 on 3rd-down conversions. Eventually, Maye and his teammates moved the ball and stacked up a respectable amount of total yards (336), although most of it came after the Raiders took a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, although Geno Smith had success in his opener, he was still sacked 4 times and the Raiders were equally pedestrian on the ground (56 rushing yards). That doesn’t bode well against a Chargers defense that played with maximum aggression last week, holding back Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s historic offense in a dominant manner. A stoic Herbert and Smith give their teams the best chance of putting up points, but we see this as a defensive, divisional war between 2 programs that want to remain undefeated.

Chargers vs Raiders pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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