NFL Picks
NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +32 units of profit, from 104 winning picks so far this season is the proof.
Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 7, highlighted by Bengals vs Steelers on Thursday night football, 49ers vs Falcons on SNF and Monday Night football, featuring both Lions vs Bucs & Seahawks vs Texans
At this point, no one should be surprised that Mike Tomlin is likely to complete his 19th consecutive non-losing season as the Steelers’ head coach. Through 5 weeks, Pittsburgh is 4-1 and at the top of the AFC North. It hasn’t always been pretty, which is also very Steelers-like, but the addition of Aaron Rodgers and a defense that finds a way to wreak havoc every week is usually enough to put the steel-team-town on top.
The market is now starting to respond, posting the Steelers as assertive 5.5-point favorites on the road and on a short week, in a battle that’s against a division opponent. In this case, it’s plain to see why their opponent is getting no love.
After losing Joe Burrow, the Bengals have now lost 4 straight games. In a seemingly desperate move, Cincinnati‘s front office decided to sign 40-year-old Joe Flacco last week. At Green Bay, the results were what one might expect. Flacco is confident in his arm and the Bengals’ offense was able to score more points than projected (their team total was 14.5), but in the end, it was a relatively easy 27-18 victory for the home team Packers.
With a defense that still ranks as one of the worst in the NFL (30th in opponent points, 31st in opponent yards per game), Zac Taylor’s roster must pull itself together and hope that they can get back in the win column fast. Needless to say, oddsmakers and bettors aren’t very confident that they can do that.
We would like to challenge that notion. Sure, the Steelers have had things go their way for the most part, but they’ve also played a friendlier schedule than most. They easily could have lost to the Jets on opening day, Seattle completely humbled them at home, New England turned the ball over 5 times and still almost beat them, and their last 2 wins were against backup, mistake-prone quarterbacks in a tough spot. In addition, Pittsburgh has real issues generating any production on the ground, ranked 30th in yards per rush (3.4), and they still permit far too many yards (355.6 per game, 26th).
At home, the Bengals should be hyper-motivated to save their season, and we see this as a great spot for the Steelers to regress. Let’s take the points with Cincinnati.
Steelers vs Bengals prediction: Bengals +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.
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At first glance, this may not seem like a pristine spot for points. After all, Joe Flacco is a Super Bowl-winning veteran quarterback, but he hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. This season he is 22nd in the NFL in passing yards, 27th in touchdowns and one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to throwing interceptions (6). Some of that is because he’s not on any explosive offenses; the other part is simply because his team is always losing and he’s always playing catch-up.
Against the Packers, Flacco played a much cleaner game, achieving his 2nd-highest completion percentage this season (64.4%) for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero turnovers. He also quickly connected with Ja’Marr Chase, who snagged 10 balls for 94 yards and a brilliant late-game catch in the end zone. That’s a good sign for a Cincinnati offense that has been extremely pedestrian since their star quarterback got injured, and it’s also the 2nd straight week that they’ve exceeded scoring expectations.
On the other side, this is a majestic matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. Rodgers, who qualifies as a bottom-third quarterback according to most ratings (a 49.2 QBR, for example) is stunted most when he’s under pressure. Fortunately for the 41-year-old, the Bengals are just 22nd in sack rate (5.14%) and permit 7.9 yards per pass (28th). In the red zone, they are completely incapable, allowing a touchdown on 71.43% of opponent drives (30th).
We like Cincinnati to keep it close but that’s only because they have the firepower on offense to do so. On both sides, the offenses are in favorable positions, especially if the Bengals can keep Flacco safe in the pocket (in his first start for the Bengals, Flacco was only sacked once against an elite Green Bay front-seven). It also helps that the home team is 4-2 to the Over and Ohio will be warm, calm, and a beautiful night for scoring.
Steelers vs Bengals best bet: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.
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Tee Higgins stands to have the most to gain from Flacco’s presence under center, in my opinion. Ja’Marr Chase was being force-fed targets from Browning to minimal success outside of garbage time, but Flacco has shown he still has the ability to spread it around. Higgins’ 8 targets last week were a season high, finishing with 5 receptions and 62 yards. He was over this line in both games last season against Pittsburgh and in 4 of his last 5. The Steelers rank top 10 in terms of man coverage rate and that is Higgins’ bread and butter — he leads the Bengals in fantasy points per route run against man defense, according to PFF. This is a buy-low spot for Higgins with Flacco’s uncertainty, and I see it as an upgrade for Higgins’ stock.
Cincinnati’s path to victory in this game can happen in multiple ways, but regardless of how the Bengals go about this contest, they’ll need to have some success through the air. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Tee Higgins to find the end zone at over 2-1 odds. The Bengals’ #2 wideout shouldn’t garner much focus in this game, and he was able to establish a good rapport with new quarterback Joe Flacco a week ago. In fact, Higgins turned in his best performance of the season in Flacco’s first outing under center, which gives us confidence in his ability to haul in a few red-zone targets on Thursday. Let’s take Higgins to find paydirt for the 3rd time this season.
On the Pittsburgh side of things, the passing game has been a bit up-and-down to this point, as Aaron Rodgers has only put up 1,021 passing yards through the first 5 games of the campaign. With that in mind, it’s nice to have Kenneth Gainwell as a security blanket for Rodgers and this Pittsburgh passing attack. Just in the last 2 weeks alone, Gainwell has 12 receptions and has recorded multiple touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense has been woeful this season, with Cincinnati sitting at 30th in success rate allowed and 29th in EPA per pass allowed on the year. Look for the Steelers’ veteran running back to be targeted on multiple occasions in the red zone in this one, which should give this number some value.
The New England Patriots surprisingly find themselves atop the AFC East heading into Week 7 of the NFL season. They are 4-2 and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, having taken down Josh Allen and company in Buffalo earlier this month. New England now faces arguably the worst team in football, the Tennessee Titans, on Sunday afternoon. This is a tale of 2 franchises going in opposite directions — and with the spread set at no more than a touchdown, my Patriots vs Titans pick is for the visitors to win and cover. Tennessee just fired head coach Bill Callahan — and for good reason. The Titans 1-5 and their only win is a miracle (“fluke” would probably be an even more accurate description) fourth-quarter comeback from 15 points down against the Cardinals, made possible by Arizona RB Emari Demarcado dropping the ball before going into the endzone followed by one of the luckiest touchdowns in football history after Arizona fumbled an interception.
Teams can sometimes galvanize around an interim head coach, but that’s usually when they have a chance to really turn around the season. That obviously isn’t the case with Tennessee. The Titans know as well as everyone else that this is a rebuilding process that will require multiple years. Now they are being asked to compete with a team is on a 3-game winning streak and has lost just once since Week 1 in a 1-possession game against the 4-1 Steelers? Drake Maye looks like the real deal at quarterback and New England is 3-0 on the road. It’s not like the Titans have any kind of significant home-field advantage, either, so the Patriots should be even bigger favorites and can be expected to win by more than a touchdown.
Patriots vs Titans prediction: Patriots -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Titans do not inspire any confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Cam Ward was the #1 overall pick in 2025 and obviously has some talent, but this is a terrible situation for the Miami product. His offensive line is awful and he also isn’t getting any help from skill-position players. Ward has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3) and has already been sacked a ridiculous 25 times. As a team, Tennessee is averaging an anemic 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.
Maye has been slinging it around nicely so far this season, but New England is still a team that wants to win by playing fundamental football — dominating on defense and running the football. That should certainly be the game script for Sunday. The Patriots will likely jump out to a quick lead and can then work the clock with running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. New England is outside the top 15 in total offense and outside the top 10 in scoring offense, so — even though it is playing well overall — it’s not setting the world on fire.
Patriots vs Titans prediction: Under 42.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.
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Not many people expected the Indianapolis Colts to own the best record in the AFC through 6 weeks at 5-1. The Colts needed a late comeback to get past the short-handed Cardinals last week, 31-27, but Indianapolis failed to cover as 10-point home favorites.
Indianapolis travels to Los Angeles for the 2nd time this season, as the first loss for the Colts came against the Rams in Week 4. The Colts square off with the Chargers on Sunday, who snapped a 2-game slide in Sunday’s 29-27 victory over the Dolphins.
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in 4 consecutive games, all as a favorite. The Chargers lost outright to the Giants and Commanders, as LA owns a perfect 4-0 record against AFC opponents.
Colts QB Daniel Jones has thrown a TD pass in each of the first 6 games for Indianapolis, but has been held to 212 passing yards in each of the last 2 wins. RB Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards with 603, while posting 2 games of 3 rushing TDs.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has also posted a TD pass in all 6 games, but has not had a multiple-TD passing performance at SoFi Stadium this season. Los Angeles is running out of players at the running back position with all its injuries, but 2nd-year man Kimani Vidal rushed for 124 yards in the last-minute victory over Miami.
These teams have met once since the 2020 season, as the Chargers knocked off the Colts 20-3 late in the 2022 campaign in Indianapolis.
The Colts are 2-5 straight-up in their last 7 games as a road underdog since last season, although 4 of those games were decided by 3 points or less.
The Chargers definitely saved face with the win at Miami to avoid a 3rd consecutive loss following a 3-0 start. Los Angeles should capitalize on that victory back at home and knock off an Indianapolis team that has barely been tested this season.
Colts vs Chargers prediction: Chargers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.
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Indianapolis has topped the 29-point mark in 5 of 6 games this season, but also yielded at least 27 points 3 times. The Colts have faced 3 of the 10 worst defenses this season from a yardage standpoint (Titans, Dolphins, Cardinals), but put up 473 yards against Denver, which is 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game.
Los Angeles was riding a 4-game Under streak prior to cashing the Over in last Sunday’s 29-27 triumph at Miami on a 43 total. The teams combined for 34 2nd-half points after 1 touchdown was scored in the first half to go along with 5 field goals.
The Chargers scored a combined 28 points in losses to the Giants and Commanders before busting out for 29 points against the Dolphins. At home, Los Angeles has cashed the Under twice in 2 games after closing out last season on a 5-game Over streak at SoFi Stadium.
The Colts are 3-3 to the Over this season, as the 3 Overs have seen Indianapolis and its opponents combine for 57 points or more. In the 3 Unders, they have combined for 47 or fewer points.
Los Angeles and its opponents totaled 48 points or less in each of its first 5 games before the combined 56 points against Miami. The total sits at 48.5 across the board, which is the highest total for the Chargers this season. Against Washington, the total closed at 48 as the Chargers scored 10 points in the opening quarter and were outscored, 27-0, in the final 3 quarters.
The Chargers rank 7th in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 301.7 and 6th in passing yards allowed at 177.5. Jones is averaging 250 passing yards per game, while getting sacked only 5 times, the fewest of any starting QB in the league.
This game will likely see these teams combine to score in the low 20s and stay Under the total.
Colts vs Chargers pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.
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These two teams sit right behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East as Washington (3-3) heads to Dallas (2-3-1) on late Sunday afternoon. Both squads are coming off losses last week in heartbreaking fashion. The Commanders rallied from a 13-0 deficit to lead the Bears on Monday night, 24-16 in the fourth quarter. Chicago scored the final 10 points of the game, capped off by a game-winning field goal in the final seconds for a 25-24 triumph. Meanwhile, Dallas went back and forth with Carolina on the road before allowing the go-ahead field goal as time expired in a 30-27 defeat to the Panthers. It marked the fourth time in the last five games that the Cowboys yielded at least 30 points, while being the only team in the league to give up an average of over 400 yards a game.
Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels has thrown four touchdown passes in the past two games after returning from a knee injury. In each of his last three starts, Washington has trailed by double-digits before scoring their first points. Dallas has played probably the two of the most exciting games of the season at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys outlasted the Giants in overtime in Week 2, 40-37 and rallied to tie the Packers, 40-40 in Week 4. The offense has been great, but they will get back one of its top weapons in WR Ceedee Lamb, who is expected to return following a four-game absence with an ankle injury.
Last season, the road team won each matchup as Dallas held off Washington, 34-26 in D.C., while the Commanders rallied late against the Cowboys in Arlington, 23-19. In both games, the Cowboys played without QB Dak Prescott, who was sidelined for the season halfway through. Prescott threw four TD passes in each of the two wins over Washington during the 2023 season, but the Commanders finished 4-13 before drafting Daniels the following spring. Dallas is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight opportunities as an underdog since last November. However, seven of those covers came as a ‘dog of at least four points. In this spot, let’s back Washington as a short favorite to grab the road victory.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys best bet: Commanders -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
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Dallas is one of the top Over teams in the NFL at 4-2 this season. It’s a simple formula as the Cowboys are third in the NFL in points per game and rank 31st in most points allowed per contest. The only Under for the Cowboys came in the 31-14 defeat at Chicago in Week 3 on a 50 total. Surprisingly, that was the highest total of the season for Dallas, who are 4-1 to the Over on totals of 48.5 or less.
Washington has cashed the Under in each of the last two games and are 4-2 to the Under this season. In the four games that Jayden Daniels has started, the Commanders are 4-0 to the Under, compared to a 2-0 Over mark when Marcus Mariota started at quarterback. In both games that Mariota started, the Commanders put up 41 and 27 points. In four games started by Daniels, Washington has scored 27 points once. Dallas scored 40 points in each of the two home games against the Giants and Packers, as they kicked a field goal in overtime each time. Since the start of last season, the Cowboys are 5-0 to the Over in the past five home contests when QB Dak Prescott plays. The season series in 2024 is tough to apply to this matchup as Prescott missed both meetings due to injury. In the first matchup in D.C., these rivals combined for 60 points on a 44.5 point total, while Washington came back for a 23-19 road victory on a 43 total in Dallas.
This total has reached 55 at several books, which is by far the highest total for Washington this season and the highest in Week 7. This total is high for a reason and with the potential return of WR Ceedee Lamb to the Dallas lineup, look for the points to be scored at AT&T Stadium on Sunday.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys pick: Over 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 55.5.
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The Tampa Bay Bucs are arguably the best team in the NFL through five weeks. Baker Mayfield and an extremely deep wide-receiver corps has been their x-factor, a passing game that ranks in the top-ten and is the major catalyst behind the Bucs averaging 27.5 points per game (6th). Mayfield has been damn-near perfect. He’s fourth overall with 1,539 yards and tied for third with 12 passing touchdowns. Entering Week 7 he’s only thrown one interception. Lead running back Bucky Irving is doubtful for Monday night’s game and their ground attack isn’t as prolific (20th in rush yards per game), but they make up for it in their run-defense, a group that permits just 3.7 yards per carry and 88.5 rush yards per game (5th). Cohesive and with veterans in the most needed positions, Tampa is an early NFC contender for a Super Bowl run and there’s nothing fluky about it.
But this profiles as a very tough spot. The spread on this game keeps moving in the home team’s direction and we agree with it. Detroit was humbled last week at Arrowhead, which may be the case for most teams for the rest of the season, but the Lions are a true juggernaut at home. Since the 2023 season, Dan Campbell’s outfit has averaged a ridiculous 34 points per game in front of their fans. This season they’ve already dropped 52 and 34 at Ford Field.
The Bucs are a solid run-defense, but they’re not as adept against the pass. The Bucs rank 26th in opponent yards per pass (7.6) and allow 231.2 pass yards per game (21st). They’ve only provided solid resistance against teams that are struggling through the air (Philadelphia, Houston, NYJ). The Lions have some issues on defense, again dealing with injuries, but they’re one of the most potent (31.2 points per game) and explosive (2nd in points per play) offenses in the NFL, and they’re at their best at home.
Combine that with the fact that Detroit is off a loss and Tampa is entering this contest with maximum, perhaps inflated confidence, and this is a recipe we love for the home team.
Bucs vs Lions prediction: Lions -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.
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The Lions are already in a vulnerable position on defense, without Terrion Arnold and damaged depth in their cornerback and safety rooms. It’s even more dire now that Brian Branch, who lost his cool and started a fight after their loss at Kansas City last week, is now suspended for one game. Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense doesn’t need any help getting off the ground, ranked in the top-10 in nearly every offensive category, including a sixth best 27.5 points per game. In a dome against banged up Lions defense, we have little doubt that the Bucs can bring plenty of points to Ford Field.
Of course, on the other side we feel the same way. The Lions and Bucs can both get to the quarterback, both ranked in the top-12 in that category, but that’s about the only factor that concerns us for each offense. Of course, Tampa’s run defense is very formidable, but at home the Lions have run for 286 yards in two games behind one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. Considering the fact that Detroit was held to just 17 points on the road last weekend, a long week of preparation sets up for a dominant performance from Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and company.
We recognized that this total is sky high, but there’s simply no other way we can look.
Buccaneers vs Lions best bet: Over 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5.
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The New York Jets are still bidding for their first victory of the season as they prepare to host the Carolina Panthers in Week 7 on Sunday afternoon. Even at home, the Jets really shouldn’t be favored over anyone in the NFL, so my Panthers vs Jets pick is on the visitors to win and cover. New York is 0-6 and deserves every bit of its winless record. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s team is #28 in total offense, dead last in passing offense, has incurred the seventh-highest penalty yardage and has been sacked 25 times — tied for the most in the entire league. The Jets have been competitive at times, but they lost to Buffalo by 20 and to Dallas by 15 — and both of those games were at home. It’s not like they have any kind of home-field advantage in East Rutherford, especially since their fans have surely given up on the season at this point.
Carolina has won 3 of its last 4 contests, a stretch that includes a 30-0 rout of Atlanta — a result that is looking better and better by the week. Bryce Young remains inconsistent, but he is coming off his second 3-touchdown performance of the year and he has thrown “only” 3 interceptions in the past 5 outings after getting picked off twice in Week 1. This would be a max play if not for the fact that the Panthers have to figure out how to win on the road before they can be fully trusted. But this should be just the spot where that happens.
Panthers vs Jets prediction: Panthers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
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Just how bad is the Jets’ passing attack? Their 144.2 yards per game are 6.3 fewer than the pathetic Titans and at least 24.3 fewer than every other team in the NFL. What’s amazing is that New York is this bad even though Justin Fields has not thrown a single interception yet this season. Just think how hopeless the offense will be once Fields starts forcing things and getting picked off! The Jets’ only real hope is to keep the football on the ground, but the Panthers rank #9 league wide against the run, surrendering just 94.5 yards per contest on 4.1 yards per carry. That is part of the reason why my Jets vs Panthers prediction is Under 42.5.
Adding insult to injury, or vice versa, New York wide receiver Garrett Wilson is doubtful for Sunday due to a knee problem. WR2 Josh Reynolds (hip) did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable. There is no reason to think that things will suddenly improve for Fields when he could be missing 2 of his primary pass-catching targets. Fortunately for the Jets, they can at least play some semblance of defense thanks to CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. Meanwhile, the Panthers have 3 offensive starters listed as questionable: RB Chuba Hubbard, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders and OT Taylor Moton. Since Young is inconsistent and Hubbard (who might not even play) has done nothing on the ground so far in 2025, Carolina does not inspire much confidence on offense. I’m backing the under with confidence.
Panthers vs Jets prediction: Under 42.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.
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There are issues on both sides for this NFC matchup on Sunday in Minneapolis. Starting with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, they started 4-0 out of the gate but trouble hit paradise following consecutive losses to the Broncos and Giants. Philadelphia ranks 29th in passing offense in the league and QB Jalen Hurts has thrown for less than 200 yards four times. Interestingly enough, Hurts’ two best passing games came in the losses the past two weeks, capped off by a season-high 283 yards in a 34-17 defeat to the Giants.
Minnesota is back from the bye week with questions at the quarterback position. J.J. McCarthy is hoping to return to the lineup after missing the last three games with an ankle injury, while former Eagle Carson Wentz is dealing with a shoulder injury. Wentz started the last 3 games, including the past two in Europe. The Vikings dropped a 24-21 decision to the Steelers in Dublin, but rallied late to beat the Browns in London, 21-17. Wentz posted 350 passing yards in the loss to Pittsburgh, while completing 73.5% of his pass attempts against Cleveland.
The Vikings are 1 of the 4 teams with a winning record in the competitive NFC North at 3-2. The Eagles still lead the NFC East at 4-2, in spite of having a point differential of -1 on the season. Philadelphia is 2-1 on the road, which includes the impressive 31-25 victory at Tampa Bay in Week 4. The Eagles have yet to be an underdog this season, as they are 3-3 against the spread as a favorite. Minnesota is receiving points for the first time in 2025, going 3-2 ATS this season. The Vikings went 3-1 both SU and ATS in 2024 in the underdog role, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark at home.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings prediction: Minnesota +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.
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No matter who is starting at quarterback for the Vikings this Sunday, whether it’s J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz, don’t expect a lot of offense. Minnesota has scored 21 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games this season, while putting up a total of 3 offensive touchdowns in the first half. The Vikings cashed the over in each of their 2 overseas games, but both on low totals of 41 and 36. In each of those contests the touchdown that hit the over came in the final two minutes, including with 25 seconds left in the victory over Cleveland.
The Eagles are 3-3 to the over, with 2 of those cashing away from Lincoln Financial Field. Following an under in the Week 2 triumph at Kansas City, Philadelphia sailed over the total 2 weeks later in their 31-25 victory at Tampa Bay on a 44 total. Last Thursday night, the Giants torched the Eagles for 34 points; that game easily hit the Over in a 34-17 win by New York. The Vikings rank sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 289.5, facing a Philadelphia offense that is third worst in the league in yards per game (274.5).
Last season, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 658 yards through the first 6 games. This season that number has been sliced in half, as he has posted 325 yards on the ground and just 1 game with at least 75 rushing yards. Minnesota has yielded at least 99 rushing yards to 3 different running backs. The Vikings closed last season ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game but have slipped to 24th this season. I don’t think we’ll see explosive plays in this game and these teams may rely on the run and milk clock. Let’s look at the under.
Eagles vs Vikings prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.5.
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The New York Giants will be looking to build on a huge win over the Philadelphia Eagles when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. New York has won 2 of its last 3 games after upsetting Philadelphia 34-17 last Thursday night. This stretch also includes a 21-18 victory over the Chargers. A bad loss at New Orleans came in between those 2 impressive results, but that should never have happened. The Giants turned the ball over 5 times and did not force any turnovers, so that was the only reason why they lost to the lowly Saints. The bottom line is that this team simply looks different now that rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart is under center instead of Russell Wilson. As such, my Giants vs Broncos pick is for the visitors to cover a touchdown spread.
This is a good spot for New York in which to be competitive. Not only does head coach Brian Daboll’s squad have a ton of momentum right now, but it is also playing on a long week after it featured on Thursday Night Football against Philadelphia. It’s basically a mini-bye of sorts. The Broncos, on the other hand, have much less rest after traveling home from their Week 6 London game. It wasn’t a good performance across the pond, either. They just barely scraped past the Jets 13-11, and the Jets might be the worst team in football — yes, arguably even worse than the Titans. Bo Nix has been unspectacular so far in year 2, so I don’t think Denver will score enough points to cover. It might win thanks to its defense, but asking the home side to prevail by at least a touchdown is probably too much.
New York Giants vs Denver Broncos prediction: Giants +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Fortunately for the Broncos, there are plenty of good things to say about their defense. It is a unit that ranks second overall in the NFL, second in scoring defense, fourth against the pass, third in yards per pass attempt allowed, sixth against the run and ninth in yards per rushing attempt allowed. It also leads the league in sacks by a country mile with 30 (no other team has more than 20). Cornerback Pat Surtain II may be the best at his position in the NFL. Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers is out for the season with a torn ACL, which is especially bad news given the strength of Denver’s secondary. As well as Dart is playing, this is very difficult spot for him. As such, my Giants vs Broncos pick is Under 40.5.
The Giants’ defense has improved dramatically since surrendering 40 points to the Cowboys in Week 2. No other opponent other than New Orleans has scored more than 22, and the Saints’ 26-point effort included an interception return for a touchdown. Much of the Saints’ offense came on a single play, an 87-yard TD pass. They otherwise had a lot of short fields due to the Giants’ turnovers. The strength of the Broncos’ offense has been the run — so even they sustain some scoring drives, they will likely be methodical and clock-sapping. Anything in the 40s is too high of a number for me.
New York Giants vs Denver Broncos prediction: Under 40.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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This is the definition of a regression game on both sides. We’ll start with the 49ers. San Francisco will be coming off a tough loss at Tampa in Week 6 but they have plenty to hang their hats on. Veteran all-pro linebacker Fred Warner sustained an injury early in the game and Mac Jones threw two interceptions, but the visitors were still in a one score game entering the fourth quarter. The Bucs did a nice job closing it out late, but it was largely an even matchup. For example, San Francisco gained 363 yards while Tampa gained 352. Despite their many injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers went toe-to-toe in enemy territory with one of the best teams in the NFL. I left feeling better about their potential this season, regardless of the dwindling health of their roster.
This Sunday sets up beautifully for a redemption spot. Early in the week, reports out of the 49ers camp suggest that George Kittle, Brock Purdy, and Ricky Pearsall are all trending towards playing on Sunday night. Kittle has the most challenging journey to return, since his 12 day practice window just opened following four weeks on the injured reserve. Heading back home following a disappointing loss, San Francisco will take any healthy returning player that they can get.
The Falcons did nothing but impress in their Week 6 victory over the Bills on Monday night football, but there is also some reason to believe it was fluky. Firstly, the game started on a Bijan Robsinon fumble and Bills’ recovery, but Buffalo was offside and it negated the turnover. The Bills also have serious issues with their run-defense, so predictably they were overwhelmed by Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, arguably the best rushing-duo in the NFL. The 49ers don’t have the same issues, ranking 12th in yards per carry allowed. Atlanta mostly won via big plays in their ground attack, with Robinson and Allgeier galloping down the sidelines on seemingly every possession. We doubt their offense can be that simple and still experience the same success against an above-average defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh.
This fits a pattern we love; an overconfident team on the road after a strange win, against a home team getting healthier and historically more buttoned up than their opponent. The value is clear.
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers prediction: 49ers -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
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Last week the Falcons should have been up 28-7 in the first half, but 1/2 yard kept Atlanta at 21 points and scoring died after that moment. Regardless, we imagine most NFL fans think of the Falcons as an elite offense at this point, especially after a national display where they ran for 210 yards and gained 443 total yards on the Bills. The reality is Atlanta is one of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL (20 per game), 27th overall. And while their ground attack is elite, like their league leading 151.2 yards per game, their passing attack is rudimentary, qualifying as average in most categories. Michael Penix Jr. has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL (51.82%).
On the other side Atlanta is far more capable. Through five games they’re top 10 in every major category, including a league best 253.4 opponent pass yards per game. Against opposing quarterbacks the Falcons are arguably the best defense in the NFL, permitting just 139.4 yards per game (1st) and only a 57.69% completion percentage (2nd). They can be exposed on the ground, permitting 4.8 yards per carry (28th).
Despite an incomparable amount of injuries, the 49ers still allow just 21.3 points per game (15th). In their last home game, they allowed an upstart Jaguars program to score 26 points and gain 151 rushing yards. They followed it up with a gritty performance against the Rams and a respectable showing against Baker Mayfield, who’s playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL. We trust in the 49ers coaching to put their team in the best position, and we see advantages for the defenses of both teams.
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers prediction: Under 47.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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The Houston Texans entered their bye week with much needed positivity. Of course, battling the Titans at home, a team that might be the worst in the NFL, and then dominating the Ravens with half a roster were certainly two advantageous positions. At the same time, CJ Stroud and company took advantage and did what they should have done, posting wins by margin. Particularly against Baltimore, we saw a side of the Texans’ offense that was virtually nonexistent up until that point. Stroud threw four touchdowns and their offense gained 417 total yards and 27 first downs in Charm City, completely decimating what was left of the Ravens’ defense. Houston’s defense, which has never been the problem and ranks first in opponent points per game (12.2), will surely benefit from two weeks of rest as they are healthier than they’ve been in a long time. A travel spot up to the Pacific Northwest is never easy, but two weeks for Houston to work on new schemes under first year offensive coordinator, Nick Caley, should pay dividends against a very good Seattle defense.
Speaking of Seattle, what they did in Jacksonville last week was very impressive. After battling Tampa in Week 5 and losing a very close game at home, Seattle responded by holding the upstart Jaguars to just 273 total yards and 17 first downs at home. They also kept Trevor Lawrence and his colleagues to just four yards per play. Perhaps most impressive, Lawrence was sacked seven times in that contest. Prior to Week 6, he was one of the best-protected quarterbacks in the league.
We can’t say anything negative about Sam Darnold, either. The Seahawks new quarterback is top three in most passing categories and leads a potent air attack that ranks first in yards per pass (9.5). Seattle’s run game still leaves much to be desired (28th in yards per carry).
This makes for a very interesting battle, but since we’ve barely seen positive performances from the Texans, we must give the nod to the home team, even with the hook over a 3-point spread.
Texans vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.
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Even with Houston’s explosion at Baltimore two weeks ago, it’s not surprising to see this total so low. Houston might own the best defense in the NFL, with top-five marks in opponent points per game and per play and in opponent yards per game and per play. What they’ll need most is an A+ pass defense against the Seahawks, since Sam Darnold has been electric despite throwing the ball less than any other team in the NFL (50.29% of plays). Strength meets strength in this sense, since Houston holds opposing quarterbacks just 6.3 yards per pass (5th) and has picked off enemy throwers on 3.27% of drop backs. We expect Seattle’s run game to be very ineffective against the Texans, who permit just 3.9 opponent yards per rush (9th).
The same story repeats on the other side of the ball, where we project CJ Stroud to be running for his life for the majority of this contest. Seattle’s pass rush is exceptional, sacking enemy quarterbacks on 8.1% of plays. And they’re even better than Houston against the run (3.3 opponent yards per carry).
As if both defenses need any more support, Monday is forecasted to be a sloppy, rainy evening in Seattle, followed by two previous days of rainy weather. That means the field should be less than ideal for speed. Perhaps a few random turnovers could push this game over if it gives either offense multiple short fields, but we have a hard time projecting this to eclipse 40 points.
Texans vs Seahawks pick: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.
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At this point, no one should be surprised that Mike Tomlin is likely to complete his 19th consecutive non-losing season as the Steelers’ head coach. Through 5 weeks, Pittsburgh is 4-1 and at the top of the AFC North. It hasn’t always been pretty, which is also very Steelers-like, but the addition of Aaron Rodgers and a defense that finds a way to wreak havoc every week is usually enough to put the steel-team-town on top.
The market is now starting to respond, posting the Steelers as assertive 5.5-point favorites on the road and on a short week, in a battle that’s against a division opponent. In this case, it’s plain to see why their opponent is getting no love.
After losing Joe Burrow, the Bengals have now lost 4 straight games. In a seemingly desperate move, Cincinnati‘s front office decided to sign 40-year-old Joe Flacco last week. At Green Bay, the results were what one might expect. Flacco is confident in his arm and the Bengals’ offense was able to score more points than projected (their team total was 14.5), but in the end, it was a relatively easy 27-18 victory for the home team Packers.
With a defense that still ranks as one of the worst in the NFL (30th in opponent points, 31st in opponent yards per game), Zac Taylor’s roster must pull itself together and hope that they can get back in the win column fast. Needless to say, oddsmakers and bettors aren’t very confident that they can do that.
We would like to challenge that notion. Sure, the Steelers have had things go their way for the most part, but they’ve also played a friendlier schedule than most. They easily could have lost to the Jets on opening day, Seattle completely humbled them at home, New England turned the ball over 5 times and still almost beat them, and their last 2 wins were against backup, mistake-prone quarterbacks in a tough spot. In addition, Pittsburgh has real issues generating any production on the ground, ranked 30th in yards per rush (3.4), and they still permit far too many yards (355.6 per game, 26th).
At home, the Bengals should be hyper-motivated to save their season, and we see this as a great spot for the Steelers to regress. Let’s take the points with Cincinnati.
Steelers vs Bengals prediction: Bengals +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.
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At first glance, this may not seem like a pristine spot for points. After all, Joe Flacco is a Super Bowl-winning veteran quarterback, but he hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. This season he is 22nd in the NFL in passing yards, 27th in touchdowns and one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to throwing interceptions (6). Some of that is because he’s not on any explosive offenses; the other part is simply because his team is always losing and he’s always playing catch-up.
Against the Packers, Flacco played a much cleaner game, achieving his 2nd-highest completion percentage this season (64.4%) for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero turnovers. He also quickly connected with Ja’Marr Chase, who snagged 10 balls for 94 yards and a brilliant late-game catch in the end zone. That’s a good sign for a Cincinnati offense that has been extremely pedestrian since their star quarterback got injured, and it’s also the 2nd straight week that they’ve exceeded scoring expectations.
On the other side, this is a majestic matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. Rodgers, who qualifies as a bottom-third quarterback according to most ratings (a 49.2 QBR, for example) is stunted most when he’s under pressure. Fortunately for the 41-year-old, the Bengals are just 22nd in sack rate (5.14%) and permit 7.9 yards per pass (28th). In the red zone, they are completely incapable, allowing a touchdown on 71.43% of opponent drives (30th).
We like Cincinnati to keep it close but that’s only because they have the firepower on offense to do so. On both sides, the offenses are in favorable positions, especially if the Bengals can keep Flacco safe in the pocket (in his first start for the Bengals, Flacco was only sacked once against an elite Green Bay front-seven). It also helps that the home team is 4-2 to the Over and Ohio will be warm, calm, and a beautiful night for scoring.
Steelers vs Bengals best bet: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.
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Tee Higgins stands to have the most to gain from Flacco’s presence under center, in my opinion. Ja’Marr Chase was being force-fed targets from Browning to minimal success outside of garbage time, but Flacco has shown he still has the ability to spread it around. Higgins’ 8 targets last week were a season high, finishing with 5 receptions and 62 yards. He was over this line in both games last season against Pittsburgh and in 4 of his last 5. The Steelers rank top 10 in terms of man coverage rate and that is Higgins’ bread and butter — he leads the Bengals in fantasy points per route run against man defense, according to PFF. This is a buy-low spot for Higgins with Flacco’s uncertainty, and I see it as an upgrade for Higgins’ stock.
Cincinnati’s path to victory in this game can happen in multiple ways, but regardless of how the Bengals go about this contest, they’ll need to have some success through the air. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Tee Higgins to find the end zone at over 2-1 odds. The Bengals’ #2 wideout shouldn’t garner much focus in this game, and he was able to establish a good rapport with new quarterback Joe Flacco a week ago. In fact, Higgins turned in his best performance of the season in Flacco’s first outing under center, which gives us confidence in his ability to haul in a few red-zone targets on Thursday. Let’s take Higgins to find paydirt for the 3rd time this season.
On the Pittsburgh side of things, the passing game has been a bit up-and-down to this point, as Aaron Rodgers has only put up 1,021 passing yards through the first 5 games of the campaign. With that in mind, it’s nice to have Kenneth Gainwell as a security blanket for Rodgers and this Pittsburgh passing attack. Just in the last 2 weeks alone, Gainwell has 12 receptions and has recorded multiple touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense has been woeful this season, with Cincinnati sitting at 30th in success rate allowed and 29th in EPA per pass allowed on the year. Look for the Steelers’ veteran running back to be targeted on multiple occasions in the red zone in this one, which should give this number some value.
The New York Jets are still bidding for their first victory of the season as they prepare to host the Carolina Panthers in Week 7 on Sunday afternoon. Even at home, the Jets really shouldn’t be favored over anyone in the NFL, so my Panthers vs Jets pick is on the visitors to win and cover. New York is 0-6 and deserves every bit of its winless record. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s team is #28 in total offense, dead last in passing offense, has incurred the seventh-highest penalty yardage and has been sacked 25 times — tied for the most in the entire league. The Jets have been competitive at times, but they lost to Buffalo by 20 and to Dallas by 15 — and both of those games were at home. It’s not like they have any kind of home-field advantage in East Rutherford, especially since their fans have surely given up on the season at this point.
Carolina has won 3 of its last 4 contests, a stretch that includes a 30-0 rout of Atlanta — a result that is looking better and better by the week. Bryce Young remains inconsistent, but he is coming off his second 3-touchdown performance of the year and he has thrown “only” 3 interceptions in the past 5 outings after getting picked off twice in Week 1. This would be a max play if not for the fact that the Panthers have to figure out how to win on the road before they can be fully trusted. But this should be just the spot where that happens.
Panthers vs Jets prediction: Panthers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
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Just how bad is the Jets’ passing attack? Their 144.2 yards per game are 6.3 fewer than the pathetic Titans and at least 24.3 fewer than every other team in the NFL. What’s amazing is that New York is this bad even though Justin Fields has not thrown a single interception yet this season. Just think how hopeless the offense will be once Fields starts forcing things and getting picked off! The Jets’ only real hope is to keep the football on the ground, but the Panthers rank #9 league wide against the run, surrendering just 94.5 yards per contest on 4.1 yards per carry. That is part of the reason why my Jets vs Panthers prediction is Under 42.5.
Adding insult to injury, or vice versa, New York wide receiver Garrett Wilson is doubtful for Sunday due to a knee problem. WR2 Josh Reynolds (hip) did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable. There is no reason to think that things will suddenly improve for Fields when he could be missing 2 of his primary pass-catching targets. Fortunately for the Jets, they can at least play some semblance of defense thanks to CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. Meanwhile, the Panthers have 3 offensive starters listed as questionable: RB Chuba Hubbard, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders and OT Taylor Moton. Since Young is inconsistent and Hubbard (who might not even play) has done nothing on the ground so far in 2025, Carolina does not inspire much confidence on offense. I’m backing the under with confidence.
Panthers vs Jets prediction: Under 42.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.
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The New England Patriots surprisingly find themselves atop the AFC East heading into Week 7 of the NFL season. They are 4-2 and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, having taken down Josh Allen and company in Buffalo earlier this month. New England now faces arguably the worst team in football, the Tennessee Titans, on Sunday afternoon. This is a tale of 2 franchises going in opposite directions — and with the spread set at no more than a touchdown, my Patriots vs Titans pick is for the visitors to win and cover. Tennessee just fired head coach Bill Callahan — and for good reason. The Titans 1-5 and their only win is a miracle (“fluke” would probably be an even more accurate description) fourth-quarter comeback from 15 points down against the Cardinals, made possible by Arizona RB Emari Demarcado dropping the ball before going into the endzone followed by one of the luckiest touchdowns in football history after Arizona fumbled an interception.
Teams can sometimes galvanize around an interim head coach, but that’s usually when they have a chance to really turn around the season. That obviously isn’t the case with Tennessee. The Titans know as well as everyone else that this is a rebuilding process that will require multiple years. Now they are being asked to compete with a team is on a 3-game winning streak and has lost just once since Week 1 in a 1-possession game against the 4-1 Steelers? Drake Maye looks like the real deal at quarterback and New England is 3-0 on the road. It’s not like the Titans have any kind of significant home-field advantage, either, so the Patriots should be even bigger favorites and can be expected to win by more than a touchdown.
Patriots vs Titans prediction: Patriots -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Titans do not inspire any confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Cam Ward was the #1 overall pick in 2025 and obviously has some talent, but this is a terrible situation for the Miami product. His offensive line is awful and he also isn’t getting any help from skill-position players. Ward has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3) and has already been sacked a ridiculous 25 times. As a team, Tennessee is averaging an anemic 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.
Maye has been slinging it around nicely so far this season, but New England is still a team that wants to win by playing fundamental football — dominating on defense and running the football. That should certainly be the game script for Sunday. The Patriots will likely jump out to a quick lead and can then work the clock with running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. New England is outside the top 15 in total offense and outside the top 10 in scoring offense, so — even though it is playing well overall — it’s not setting the world on fire.
Patriots vs Titans prediction: Under 42.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.
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There are issues on both sides for this NFC matchup on Sunday in Minneapolis. Starting with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, they started 4-0 out of the gate but trouble hit paradise following consecutive losses to the Broncos and Giants. Philadelphia ranks 29th in passing offense in the league and QB Jalen Hurts has thrown for less than 200 yards four times. Interestingly enough, Hurts’ two best passing games came in the losses the past two weeks, capped off by a season-high 283 yards in a 34-17 defeat to the Giants.
Minnesota is back from the bye week with questions at the quarterback position. J.J. McCarthy is hoping to return to the lineup after missing the last three games with an ankle injury, while former Eagle Carson Wentz is dealing with a shoulder injury. Wentz started the last 3 games, including the past two in Europe. The Vikings dropped a 24-21 decision to the Steelers in Dublin, but rallied late to beat the Browns in London, 21-17. Wentz posted 350 passing yards in the loss to Pittsburgh, while completing 73.5% of his pass attempts against Cleveland.
The Vikings are 1 of the 4 teams with a winning record in the competitive NFC North at 3-2. The Eagles still lead the NFC East at 4-2, in spite of having a point differential of -1 on the season. Philadelphia is 2-1 on the road, which includes the impressive 31-25 victory at Tampa Bay in Week 4. The Eagles have yet to be an underdog this season, as they are 3-3 against the spread as a favorite. Minnesota is receiving points for the first time in 2025, going 3-2 ATS this season. The Vikings went 3-1 both SU and ATS in 2024 in the underdog role, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark at home.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings prediction: Minnesota +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.
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No matter who is starting at quarterback for the Vikings this Sunday, whether it’s J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz, don’t expect a lot of offense. Minnesota has scored 21 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games this season, while putting up a total of 3 offensive touchdowns in the first half. The Vikings cashed the over in each of their 2 overseas games, but both on low totals of 41 and 36. In each of those contests the touchdown that hit the over came in the final two minutes, including with 25 seconds left in the victory over Cleveland.
The Eagles are 3-3 to the over, with 2 of those cashing away from Lincoln Financial Field. Following an under in the Week 2 triumph at Kansas City, Philadelphia sailed over the total 2 weeks later in their 31-25 victory at Tampa Bay on a 44 total. Last Thursday night, the Giants torched the Eagles for 34 points; that game easily hit the Over in a 34-17 win by New York. The Vikings rank sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 289.5, facing a Philadelphia offense that is third worst in the league in yards per game (274.5).
Last season, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 658 yards through the first 6 games. This season that number has been sliced in half, as he has posted 325 yards on the ground and just 1 game with at least 75 rushing yards. Minnesota has yielded at least 99 rushing yards to 3 different running backs. The Vikings closed last season ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game but have slipped to 24th this season. I don’t think we’ll see explosive plays in this game and these teams may rely on the run and milk clock. Let’s look at the under.
Eagles vs Vikings prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.5.
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Not many people expected the Indianapolis Colts to own the best record in the AFC through 6 weeks at 5-1. The Colts needed a late comeback to get past the short-handed Cardinals last week, 31-27, but Indianapolis failed to cover as 10-point home favorites.
Indianapolis travels to Los Angeles for the 2nd time this season, as the first loss for the Colts came against the Rams in Week 4. The Colts square off with the Chargers on Sunday, who snapped a 2-game slide in Sunday’s 29-27 victory over the Dolphins.
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in 4 consecutive games, all as a favorite. The Chargers lost outright to the Giants and Commanders, as LA owns a perfect 4-0 record against AFC opponents.
Colts QB Daniel Jones has thrown a TD pass in each of the first 6 games for Indianapolis, but has been held to 212 passing yards in each of the last 2 wins. RB Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards with 603, while posting 2 games of 3 rushing TDs.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has also posted a TD pass in all 6 games, but has not had a multiple-TD passing performance at SoFi Stadium this season. Los Angeles is running out of players at the running back position with all its injuries, but 2nd-year man Kimani Vidal rushed for 124 yards in the last-minute victory over Miami.
These teams have met once since the 2020 season, as the Chargers knocked off the Colts 20-3 late in the 2022 campaign in Indianapolis.
The Colts are 2-5 straight-up in their last 7 games as a road underdog since last season, although 4 of those games were decided by 3 points or less.
The Chargers definitely saved face with the win at Miami to avoid a 3rd consecutive loss following a 3-0 start. Los Angeles should capitalize on that victory back at home and knock off an Indianapolis team that has barely been tested this season.
Colts vs Chargers prediction: Chargers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.
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Indianapolis has topped the 29-point mark in 5 of 6 games this season, but also yielded at least 27 points 3 times. The Colts have faced 3 of the 10 worst defenses this season from a yardage standpoint (Titans, Dolphins, Cardinals), but put up 473 yards against Denver, which is 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game.
Los Angeles was riding a 4-game Under streak prior to cashing the Over in last Sunday’s 29-27 triumph at Miami on a 43 total. The teams combined for 34 2nd-half points after 1 touchdown was scored in the first half to go along with 5 field goals.
The Chargers scored a combined 28 points in losses to the Giants and Commanders before busting out for 29 points against the Dolphins. At home, Los Angeles has cashed the Under twice in 2 games after closing out last season on a 5-game Over streak at SoFi Stadium.
The Colts are 3-3 to the Over this season, as the 3 Overs have seen Indianapolis and its opponents combine for 57 points or more. In the 3 Unders, they have combined for 47 or fewer points.
Los Angeles and its opponents totaled 48 points or less in each of its first 5 games before the combined 56 points against Miami. The total sits at 48.5 across the board, which is the highest total for the Chargers this season. Against Washington, the total closed at 48 as the Chargers scored 10 points in the opening quarter and were outscored, 27-0, in the final 3 quarters.
The Chargers rank 7th in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 301.7 and 6th in passing yards allowed at 177.5. Jones is averaging 250 passing yards per game, while getting sacked only 5 times, the fewest of any starting QB in the league.
This game will likely see these teams combine to score in the low 20s and stay Under the total.
Colts vs Chargers pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.
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The New York Giants will be looking to build on a huge win over the Philadelphia Eagles when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. New York has won 2 of its last 3 games after upsetting Philadelphia 34-17 last Thursday night. This stretch also includes a 21-18 victory over the Chargers. A bad loss at New Orleans came in between those 2 impressive results, but that should never have happened. The Giants turned the ball over 5 times and did not force any turnovers, so that was the only reason why they lost to the lowly Saints. The bottom line is that this team simply looks different now that rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart is under center instead of Russell Wilson. As such, my Giants vs Broncos pick is for the visitors to cover a touchdown spread.
This is a good spot for New York in which to be competitive. Not only does head coach Brian Daboll’s squad have a ton of momentum right now, but it is also playing on a long week after it featured on Thursday Night Football against Philadelphia. It’s basically a mini-bye of sorts. The Broncos, on the other hand, have much less rest after traveling home from their Week 6 London game. It wasn’t a good performance across the pond, either. They just barely scraped past the Jets 13-11, and the Jets might be the worst team in football — yes, arguably even worse than the Titans. Bo Nix has been unspectacular so far in year 2, so I don’t think Denver will score enough points to cover. It might win thanks to its defense, but asking the home side to prevail by at least a touchdown is probably too much.
New York Giants vs Denver Broncos prediction: Giants +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Fortunately for the Broncos, there are plenty of good things to say about their defense. It is a unit that ranks second overall in the NFL, second in scoring defense, fourth against the pass, third in yards per pass attempt allowed, sixth against the run and ninth in yards per rushing attempt allowed. It also leads the league in sacks by a country mile with 30 (no other team has more than 20). Cornerback Pat Surtain II may be the best at his position in the NFL. Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers is out for the season with a torn ACL, which is especially bad news given the strength of Denver’s secondary. As well as Dart is playing, this is very difficult spot for him. As such, my Giants vs Broncos pick is Under 40.5.
The Giants’ defense has improved dramatically since surrendering 40 points to the Cowboys in Week 2. No other opponent other than New Orleans has scored more than 22, and the Saints’ 26-point effort included an interception return for a touchdown. Much of the Saints’ offense came on a single play, an 87-yard TD pass. They otherwise had a lot of short fields due to the Giants’ turnovers. The strength of the Broncos’ offense has been the run — so even they sustain some scoring drives, they will likely be methodical and clock-sapping. Anything in the 40s is too high of a number for me.
New York Giants vs Denver Broncos prediction: Under 40.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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These two teams sit right behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East as Washington (3-3) heads to Dallas (2-3-1) on late Sunday afternoon. Both squads are coming off losses last week in heartbreaking fashion. The Commanders rallied from a 13-0 deficit to lead the Bears on Monday night, 24-16 in the fourth quarter. Chicago scored the final 10 points of the game, capped off by a game-winning field goal in the final seconds for a 25-24 triumph. Meanwhile, Dallas went back and forth with Carolina on the road before allowing the go-ahead field goal as time expired in a 30-27 defeat to the Panthers. It marked the fourth time in the last five games that the Cowboys yielded at least 30 points, while being the only team in the league to give up an average of over 400 yards a game.
Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels has thrown four touchdown passes in the past two games after returning from a knee injury. In each of his last three starts, Washington has trailed by double-digits before scoring their first points. Dallas has played probably the two of the most exciting games of the season at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys outlasted the Giants in overtime in Week 2, 40-37 and rallied to tie the Packers, 40-40 in Week 4. The offense has been great, but they will get back one of its top weapons in WR Ceedee Lamb, who is expected to return following a four-game absence with an ankle injury.
Last season, the road team won each matchup as Dallas held off Washington, 34-26 in D.C., while the Commanders rallied late against the Cowboys in Arlington, 23-19. In both games, the Cowboys played without QB Dak Prescott, who was sidelined for the season halfway through. Prescott threw four TD passes in each of the two wins over Washington during the 2023 season, but the Commanders finished 4-13 before drafting Daniels the following spring. Dallas is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight opportunities as an underdog since last November. However, seven of those covers came as a ‘dog of at least four points. In this spot, let’s back Washington as a short favorite to grab the road victory.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys best bet: Commanders -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
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Dallas is one of the top Over teams in the NFL at 4-2 this season. It’s a simple formula as the Cowboys are third in the NFL in points per game and rank 31st in most points allowed per contest. The only Under for the Cowboys came in the 31-14 defeat at Chicago in Week 3 on a 50 total. Surprisingly, that was the highest total of the season for Dallas, who are 4-1 to the Over on totals of 48.5 or less.
Washington has cashed the Under in each of the last two games and are 4-2 to the Under this season. In the four games that Jayden Daniels has started, the Commanders are 4-0 to the Under, compared to a 2-0 Over mark when Marcus Mariota started at quarterback. In both games that Mariota started, the Commanders put up 41 and 27 points. In four games started by Daniels, Washington has scored 27 points once. Dallas scored 40 points in each of the two home games against the Giants and Packers, as they kicked a field goal in overtime each time. Since the start of last season, the Cowboys are 5-0 to the Over in the past five home contests when QB Dak Prescott plays. The season series in 2024 is tough to apply to this matchup as Prescott missed both meetings due to injury. In the first matchup in D.C., these rivals combined for 60 points on a 44.5 point total, while Washington came back for a 23-19 road victory on a 43 total in Dallas.
This total has reached 55 at several books, which is by far the highest total for Washington this season and the highest in Week 7. This total is high for a reason and with the potential return of WR Ceedee Lamb to the Dallas lineup, look for the points to be scored at AT&T Stadium on Sunday.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys pick: Over 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 55.5.
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This is the definition of a regression game on both sides. We’ll start with the 49ers. San Francisco will be coming off a tough loss at Tampa in Week 6 but they have plenty to hang their hats on. Veteran all-pro linebacker Fred Warner sustained an injury early in the game and Mac Jones threw two interceptions, but the visitors were still in a one score game entering the fourth quarter. The Bucs did a nice job closing it out late, but it was largely an even matchup. For example, San Francisco gained 363 yards while Tampa gained 352. Despite their many injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers went toe-to-toe in enemy territory with one of the best teams in the NFL. I left feeling better about their potential this season, regardless of the dwindling health of their roster.
This Sunday sets up beautifully for a redemption spot. Early in the week, reports out of the 49ers camp suggest that George Kittle, Brock Purdy, and Ricky Pearsall are all trending towards playing on Sunday night. Kittle has the most challenging journey to return, since his 12 day practice window just opened following four weeks on the injured reserve. Heading back home following a disappointing loss, San Francisco will take any healthy returning player that they can get.
The Falcons did nothing but impress in their Week 6 victory over the Bills on Monday night football, but there is also some reason to believe it was fluky. Firstly, the game started on a Bijan Robsinon fumble and Bills’ recovery, but Buffalo was offside and it negated the turnover. The Bills also have serious issues with their run-defense, so predictably they were overwhelmed by Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, arguably the best rushing-duo in the NFL. The 49ers don’t have the same issues, ranking 12th in yards per carry allowed. Atlanta mostly won via big plays in their ground attack, with Robinson and Allgeier galloping down the sidelines on seemingly every possession. We doubt their offense can be that simple and still experience the same success against an above-average defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh.
This fits a pattern we love; an overconfident team on the road after a strange win, against a home team getting healthier and historically more buttoned up than their opponent. The value is clear.
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers prediction: 49ers -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.
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Last week the Falcons should have been up 28-7 in the first half, but 1/2 yard kept Atlanta at 21 points and scoring died after that moment. Regardless, we imagine most NFL fans think of the Falcons as an elite offense at this point, especially after a national display where they ran for 210 yards and gained 443 total yards on the Bills. The reality is Atlanta is one of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL (20 per game), 27th overall. And while their ground attack is elite, like their league leading 151.2 yards per game, their passing attack is rudimentary, qualifying as average in most categories. Michael Penix Jr. has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL (51.82%).
On the other side Atlanta is far more capable. Through five games they’re top 10 in every major category, including a league best 253.4 opponent pass yards per game. Against opposing quarterbacks the Falcons are arguably the best defense in the NFL, permitting just 139.4 yards per game (1st) and only a 57.69% completion percentage (2nd). They can be exposed on the ground, permitting 4.8 yards per carry (28th).
Despite an incomparable amount of injuries, the 49ers still allow just 21.3 points per game (15th). In their last home game, they allowed an upstart Jaguars program to score 26 points and gain 151 rushing yards. They followed it up with a gritty performance against the Rams and a respectable showing against Baker Mayfield, who’s playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL. We trust in the 49ers coaching to put their team in the best position, and we see advantages for the defenses of both teams.
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers prediction: Under 47.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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The Tampa Bay Bucs are arguably the best team in the NFL through five weeks. Baker Mayfield and an extremely deep wide-receiver corps has been their x-factor, a passing game that ranks in the top-ten and is the major catalyst behind the Bucs averaging 27.5 points per game (6th). Mayfield has been damn-near perfect. He’s fourth overall with 1,539 yards and tied for third with 12 passing touchdowns. Entering Week 7 he’s only thrown one interception. Lead running back Bucky Irving is doubtful for Monday night’s game and their ground attack isn’t as prolific (20th in rush yards per game), but they make up for it in their run-defense, a group that permits just 3.7 yards per carry and 88.5 rush yards per game (5th). Cohesive and with veterans in the most needed positions, Tampa is an early NFC contender for a Super Bowl run and there’s nothing fluky about it.
But this profiles as a very tough spot. The spread on this game keeps moving in the home team’s direction and we agree with it. Detroit was humbled last week at Arrowhead, which may be the case for most teams for the rest of the season, but the Lions are a true juggernaut at home. Since the 2023 season, Dan Campbell’s outfit has averaged a ridiculous 34 points per game in front of their fans. This season they’ve already dropped 52 and 34 at Ford Field.
The Bucs are a solid run-defense, but they’re not as adept against the pass. The Bucs rank 26th in opponent yards per pass (7.6) and allow 231.2 pass yards per game (21st). They’ve only provided solid resistance against teams that are struggling through the air (Philadelphia, Houston, NYJ). The Lions have some issues on defense, again dealing with injuries, but they’re one of the most potent (31.2 points per game) and explosive (2nd in points per play) offenses in the NFL, and they’re at their best at home.
Combine that with the fact that Detroit is off a loss and Tampa is entering this contest with maximum, perhaps inflated confidence, and this is a recipe we love for the home team.
Bucs vs Lions prediction: Lions -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.
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The Lions are already in a vulnerable position on defense, without Terrion Arnold and damaged depth in their cornerback and safety rooms. It’s even more dire now that Brian Branch, who lost his cool and started a fight after their loss at Kansas City last week, is now suspended for one game. Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense doesn’t need any help getting off the ground, ranked in the top-10 in nearly every offensive category, including a sixth best 27.5 points per game. In a dome against banged up Lions defense, we have little doubt that the Bucs can bring plenty of points to Ford Field.
Of course, on the other side we feel the same way. The Lions and Bucs can both get to the quarterback, both ranked in the top-12 in that category, but that’s about the only factor that concerns us for each offense. Of course, Tampa’s run defense is very formidable, but at home the Lions have run for 286 yards in two games behind one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. Considering the fact that Detroit was held to just 17 points on the road last weekend, a long week of preparation sets up for a dominant performance from Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and company.
We recognized that this total is sky high, but there’s simply no other way we can look.
Buccaneers vs Lions best bet: Over 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5.
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The Houston Texans entered their bye week with much needed positivity. Of course, battling the Titans at home, a team that might be the worst in the NFL, and then dominating the Ravens with half a roster were certainly two advantageous positions. At the same time, CJ Stroud and company took advantage and did what they should have done, posting wins by margin. Particularly against Baltimore, we saw a side of the Texans’ offense that was virtually nonexistent up until that point. Stroud threw four touchdowns and their offense gained 417 total yards and 27 first downs in Charm City, completely decimating what was left of the Ravens’ defense. Houston’s defense, which has never been the problem and ranks first in opponent points per game (12.2), will surely benefit from two weeks of rest as they are healthier than they’ve been in a long time. A travel spot up to the Pacific Northwest is never easy, but two weeks for Houston to work on new schemes under first year offensive coordinator, Nick Caley, should pay dividends against a very good Seattle defense.
Speaking of Seattle, what they did in Jacksonville last week was very impressive. After battling Tampa in Week 5 and losing a very close game at home, Seattle responded by holding the upstart Jaguars to just 273 total yards and 17 first downs at home. They also kept Trevor Lawrence and his colleagues to just four yards per play. Perhaps most impressive, Lawrence was sacked seven times in that contest. Prior to Week 6, he was one of the best-protected quarterbacks in the league.
We can’t say anything negative about Sam Darnold, either. The Seahawks new quarterback is top three in most passing categories and leads a potent air attack that ranks first in yards per pass (9.5). Seattle’s run game still leaves much to be desired (28th in yards per carry).
This makes for a very interesting battle, but since we’ve barely seen positive performances from the Texans, we must give the nod to the home team, even with the hook over a 3-point spread.
Texans vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.
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Even with Houston’s explosion at Baltimore two weeks ago, it’s not surprising to see this total so low. Houston might own the best defense in the NFL, with top-five marks in opponent points per game and per play and in opponent yards per game and per play. What they’ll need most is an A+ pass defense against the Seahawks, since Sam Darnold has been electric despite throwing the ball less than any other team in the NFL (50.29% of plays). Strength meets strength in this sense, since Houston holds opposing quarterbacks just 6.3 yards per pass (5th) and has picked off enemy throwers on 3.27% of drop backs. We expect Seattle’s run game to be very ineffective against the Texans, who permit just 3.9 opponent yards per rush (9th).
The same story repeats on the other side of the ball, where we project CJ Stroud to be running for his life for the majority of this contest. Seattle’s pass rush is exceptional, sacking enemy quarterbacks on 8.1% of plays. And they’re even better than Houston against the run (3.3 opponent yards per carry).
As if both defenses need any more support, Monday is forecasted to be a sloppy, rainy evening in Seattle, followed by two previous days of rainy weather. That means the field should be less than ideal for speed. Perhaps a few random turnovers could push this game over if it gives either offense multiple short fields, but we have a hard time projecting this to eclipse 40 points.
Texans vs Seahawks pick: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.
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Why Trust our NFL Picks
Through the first five weeks of the 2025 season our record speaks for itself. Our team of handicappers have racked up 54 winning NFL against the spread and moneyline picks (and 1 push), for +30.3 units of profit. On top of that, our NFL over/under picks have landed on 3 games, for a profit of +2.5 units. When you combine the two, our expert NFL picks have scored +32.7 units of profit so far this season.
| Pick | Wins | Losses | Profit (betting units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sides (ATS & Moneyline) | 54 | 38 | +30.3 |
| Over/Under | 50 | 43 | +2.5 |
| Total | 104 | 81 | +32.7 |
At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.
Free NFL Picks Explained
We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.
There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.
Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.
NFL Picks Against the Spread
The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.
For Example
Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.
NFL spread betting trends 2025
- The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
- Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
- Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.
Free NFL Over / Under Picks
Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.
NFL over / under betting trends
- Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
- Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
- Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.
Money Line NFL Picks
Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.
NFL Moneyline betting trends
- Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
- Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
- Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.
2025-26 NFL Schedule
This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.
NFL Playoff Picks
You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.
| NFL Playoff Picks | |
| NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks | |
| NFL Divisional Round Picks | |
| NFL Conference Championship Picks |
NFL Expert Picks
Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.
Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.
More Than Just NFL Football Picks
We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.
Statistical Approach to NFL Picks
It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.
Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor
NFL Picks FAQs
To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.
The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line
Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units
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