NFL Picks

The NFL’s International Series will continue on Sunday with a showdown in Madrid, Spain between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. Washington was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender following last season’s breakout run to the NFC title game, but life comes at you quick in this league. The injury-plagued Commanders are 3-7 and find themselves once again without quarterback Jayden Daniels – this time because of a dislocated elbow. They have lost 5 straight games, including a ridiculous 4 in a row by at least 21 points.

It is true that the Commanders seem cooked, but already this season we have seen cooked teams rise from the dead. Case in point: the Dolphins. Head coach Mike McDaniel (yes, he is still employed!) suddenly has his squad playing hard and actually winning football games. Miami has won 2 of its last 3 outings, scoring at least 30 points in both of those victories over Atlanta and Buffalo. The Fins were especially impressive during last weekend’s upset of the Bills, during which De’Von Achane erupted for 225 yards from scrimmaged and 2 touchdowns. Achane now faces a Washington defense that is #23 against the run (134.4 yards per game allowed) and gives up 4.6 yards per carry (also #23 in the NFL). I can’t put max confidence on this game because the Dolphins are…the Dolphins. But I like them to cover.

Commanders vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s hard to trust either quarterback that will be on the field for this contest. Washington’s Marcus Mariota is a serviceable backup, but he is hardly more than a game manager. The veteran has almost as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (6) in relatively limited work so far this season, and the Commanders have scored only 29 total points in his last 2 starts. Meanwhile, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa leads the entire league with 13 interceptions and has thrown an absurd 9 in the last 5 games. That is a big reason why my Commanders vs Dolphins pick is under 47.5.

In large part due to Tagovailoa’s inconsistency, the Dolphins’ offense has been all over the place. In their last 4 contests, they have scored 30 or more twice and exactly 6 twice. Washington has not posted more than 22 points in a game since Week 6 and now has to face a Miami defense that just stymied reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen. I would proceed with caution whenever you are backing the under in a game that involves the Commanders’ defense, but this total is too high to go in the other direction.

Commanders vs Dolphins prediction: Under 47.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons will tangle in an NFC South showdown on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Given the home team’s current woes and its recent struggles in this particular matchup, my Panthers vs Falcons pick is on the visitors to cover. Atlanta is on a 4-game losing streak with setbacks against San Francisco, Miami, New England and Indianapolis. Head coach Raheem Morris’ club is not playing on a short week, but it did have to travel back from Berlin on the heels of an overtime loss to the Colts this past weekend. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has struggled and the Falcons are banged up on the offensive line, too (Chris Lindstrom and Matthew Bergeron are questionable for Sunday), so it’s hard to feel good about any aspect of this offense right now. Even Bijan Robinson has been held in check during this current skid.

This is a rematch of a Week 3 contest in Carolina, where Panthers rolled to a 30-0 victory while improving to 3-1 SU in the last 4 H2H. No, that 30-0 score is not misprint; that’s actually what happened the first time these 2 division rivals went head-to-head this season. Penix threw 2 interceptions and Atlanta’s offense constantly put the defense in terrible situations. Carolina had 4 scoring drives of 30 yards or fewer and only one of its 6 scoring drives trekked across more than half of the football field. Dating back to that result, the Panthers are a solid 5-3 in their last 8 outings. They have a good chance to win this one outright, but getting more than a field goal is too enticing to pass up.

Panthers vs Falcons prediction: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The first head-to-head encounter was nothing short of an offensive abomination. The Falcons did not score a single point…and still out-gained the Panthers by 108 yards. You read that right; a team that was shut out won the yardage battle by more than 100. Despite scoring 30 points, Carolina’s offense was useless. Bryce Young threw for just 121 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, while the home side churned out only 110 rushing yards on 30 attempts (3.7 average). Mainly because of what happened between these 2 teams a couple of months ago, my Panthers vs Falcons pick is under 42.5.

Things have not improved a whole lot since then for Young, whose touchdown-to-interception ratio this year is a modest 11-to-7. The Alabama product has reached the 200-yard mark only once in 2025, and his most recent passing-yardage totals are 138, 102 and 124. Now he has to face an Atlanta defense that ranks #1 in the entire NFL against the pass (162.3 yards per game). To say that Carolina’s offense is going to be 1-dimensional on Sunday would be a gross understatement. Given Penix’s struggles and the Falcons’ offensive-line issues (which has contributed to Robinson’s lackluster numbers of late), it’s also impossible to have faith in the home team’s ability to score points on Sunday.

Panthers vs Falcons prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It will be a battle in the NFC North when the Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon. It is a rematch of Week 1, when the Bears lost a 27-24 heartbreaker. I think they can be competitive once again if not even win outright, so my Bears vs Vikings pick is on the visitors to cover. Chicago has caught fire since beginning the season 0-2, reeling off 6 victories in its past 7 games. First-year head coach Ben Johnson has his offense rolling, producing at least 24 points in all but 2 contests during this 2025 campaign and failing to exceed the 20-point mark just once. Quarterback Caleb Williams is making massive strides; he has accounted for 16 total TDs (13 passing, 3 rushing)

It has been a rough, up-and-down season for the Vikings (4-5). They have not won back-to-back games, but at the same time they have lost 2 in a row only once. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team is by no means bad, but it has been unable to sustain any kind of momentum. Quarterbacks JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz have taken turns being injured; Wentz is now out for the year, so McCarthy is back under center. The Michigan product has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) this his first 4 appearances in the NFL. It’s also worth noting that the Vikes don’t have much a home-field advantage these days. They have won just a single game in its own stadium so far this season.

Bears vs Vikings prediction: Chicago Bears +3.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The first meeting between these 2 division rivals produced 51 points, but it’s worth diving deeper into that game. Chicago led 17-6 going into the fourth quarter before a whopping 28 points were scored in the final 12 minutes and 13 seconds. For the most part that matchup was a defensive struggle. I think the rematch could produce something similar, so my Bears vs Vikings pick is Under 48.5.

Minnesota has scored more than 22 points in a game only once since Week 3. Some of that can be pinned on Wentz, but McCarthy has also been unspectacular. The 2024 first-round draft pick did not do a whole lot even when he led his team to a comeback win over Chicago in the season opener, finishing with just 143 passing yards and 25 on the ground. The Vikings gained just 254 yards of total offense in that game. Things were not much better for the Bears, who amassed 317 yards and averaged just 5.0 yards per play. Running back D’Andre Swift has been dealing with a groin injury for several weeks and now he is also plagued by a hip issue. Swift is questionable for Sunday. Receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are also questionable. All things considered, the over is took risky.

Bears vs Vikings prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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In a week full of compelling matchups, one of the most interesting games of the week comes in Buffalo, where the Bills are set to host the Buccaneers in a game that could go a long way to decide the fortunes of both teams in terms of playoff seeding in their respective conferences. Both teams are coming off pretty demoralizing losses, with the Bills dropping a game to the Dolphins as significant favorites a week ago, while the Bucs lost at home to a red-hot Patriots team – which marked the second defeat in the last 3 games for Tampa Bay. While this would ordinarily be a spot where I look to back the Bills at home — especially with Buffalo coming off a very poor performance in Miami — I can’t quite get there with this number given the matchup at hand and how the injury report looks for Sean McDermott’s side.

For starters, the Bills offense almost entirely centers around the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and we just saw Miami be able to successfully bottle that up last week. When the Bills can’t get ahead of the chains early, it becomes a lot harder for Josh Allen and company to consistently convert in obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. The Buccaneers have a solid matchup edge in this game given that they have a top-3 rush defense in the league per success rate, while also sitting at 4th in rush DVOA on defense. Tampa Bay’s weakness is defending the pass, but given that the Bills might be without Dalton Kincaid — who has really become Allen’s top target in recent weeks — Buffalo might not have many answers against a Buccaneers defensive front that likes to blitz and can even get pressure on opposing quarterbacks by only rushing 4 guys. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is extremely banged up after suffering a few more losses a week ago. With that in mind, even though Baker Mayfield has come back down to earth in recent weeks, the Bucs should be able to move the ball enough to stay within one possession in this one. Points could be at a premium here, so I’ll take a shot on the ‘dog.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 available at time of publishing. Playable to Bucs +5.5

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Regardless of which teams covers the spread in this game, all signs are pointing to a lower-scoring contest than what the market expects on Sunday. This total has come down a bit from the open, and for good reason. After all, the weather forecast calls for 15-20 mph winds, and that could make things extremely difficult for both teams through the air. As previously mentioned, the Bills offense is dealing with some potential key injuries in the passing game, and those issues could be exacerbated given the conditions at hand. We can expect Buffalo, who has the highest rush rate in the league. to keep the ball on the ground and look to grind out long touchdown drives. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s rushing attack doesn’t have much juice at the moment with Bucky Irving out of the lineup and Mayfield has come back to earth in recent weeks. With that in mind, the under is the only way I can look in this one.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Under 48 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5

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We have an intriguing showdown on our hands in Week 11 as the Baltimore Ravens are set to take on the Browns in a game that figures to be an old-school AFC North battle in Cleveland. While the Ravens are not exactly back to where they were prior to Lamar Jackson’s injury in September, Baltimore is certainly looking like a playoff team since Jackson’s return to the lineup. And while the dynamic multiple-time MVP missed practice earlier this week with a sore knee, he’s expected to be a full go in a game against a bad Browns team that should be overmatched in this one.

We know that the Ravens have the tools to dominate at the line of scrimmage, and the weather conditions should also favor Baltimore to keep the ball on the ground and grind out scoring drives against a Cleveland defense that has been fading a bit in recent weeks. The forecast is also troubling for Cleveland’s offense on the other side of things, as Dillon Gabriel has already played in high winds this season and looked terrible in the process, so it wouldn’t shock me if Baltimore nabbed a couple of turnovers in a spot where the rookie quarterback can be expected to struggle. Gabriel was also sacked 6 times a week ago and the Ravens defense has been steadily improving in recent weeks, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. All signs point to the Ravens doing enough on offense to build a lead, and I can’t trust a struggling rookie to keep this game within the number. 

Ravens vs Browns prediction: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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This is an extremely low total, but I can only look to the under given my handicap on this game. As previously mentioned, the weather forecast indicates that we’ll see high wins in this game, which is bad news for both teams in terms of pushing the ball downfield. The Browns should be perfectly comfortable with keeping the ball on the ground anyway, especially given Gabriel’s struggles through the air. On the other side, if Jackson isn’t 100% that could hurt his ability to escape and avoid sacks away from the Browns disruptive pass rush. Regardless of if the Ravens are able to win by margin or not, this should be a lower-scoring affair that features plenty of early down runs. There’s potentially room for this total to drop even further, so I’ll grab the under in this AFC North tilt.

Ravens vs Browns prediction: Under 39.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.

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