NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +12.4 units of profit, from 144 winning picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 10, highlighted by Broncos vs Raiders on Thursday night football, Chargers vs Steelers on SNF and Monday Night football, featuring Packers vs Eagles.

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8:15 PM ET

Tomorrow

Amazon Prime Video

Raiders

Broncos

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Point Spread Pick

DEN Broncos -8.5(-110)

Reasoning

Another week of NFL action hasn’t changed much about the trajectory of either of these programs. Denver, who continues to play their best football in the fourth quarter, escaped Houston this past Sunday in a low-scoring affair. The elite nature of the Broncos and Texans’ defenses were on full display, limiting each offense to just 15 first downs and under 300 total yards. Behind a valiant effort from Bo Nix, the Broncos scored 11 unanswered points in the final period and sealed a victory. Nix was far from his best throughout the game (18-37, 173 yards), but he engineered two drives (109 yards) that ended up being the difference late in the contest. The Denver defense had odd showings against the Giants and Cowboys, allowing more points than usual (56 combined in Weeks 7 and 8), and the Colts and Chargers found offensive success against them, too. In five games against offenses that more closely mirror the Raiders’ murky operation, Denver’s only permitted 10.6 points per game.

In an ugly affair that only diehard fans could enjoy, the Raiders nearly beat the Jaguars following their bye-week last Sunday, rolling right down the field against a good Jacksonville defense in overtime before failing on the two-point conversion. Most notable was the play of Brock Bowers, who returned from injury. Vegas’ all-star tight end may be the league’s best at the position. Bowers had 12 catches for 127 yards and three touchdowns, unstoppable down the stretch and the biggest reason why the Raiders nearly won the game. Geno Smith also had his most productive and efficient game of the season, going 29-39 for 284 yards and four touchdowns. The Raiders still lacked a run game (57 total yards) and their defense couldn’t stop an average Jags’ offense when it counted, but at least their passing game showed some juice. Whether that’ll be enough to go into Denver and compete on a serious level remains to be seen.

No one knows if the Raiders can replicate their offensive performance in Week 9, but all prior indications suggest that’s not what’s about to happen. The Denver defense has exceeded expectations against poor offenses. Following a bye, now the Raiders are on a short week, on the road, and coming off a gutting loss at home. Maybe this game remains tight in its early stages, but we feel confidently that the home team will pull away.

Raiders vs Broncos prediction: Broncos -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 43.0(-115)

Reasoning

The Thursday night total is hovering around a few key numbers, notably higher than 37, 38, 40 and 41, which is interesting considering the two teams competing. On the one hand, Denver’s offense can be explosive, as we saw in their 44-point decimation of the Cowboys two weeks ago or their 33-point fourth quarter against the Giants in Week 8. Against top-tier defenses we’ve seen them look below average, too. Against groups like the Texans, Chargers, Jets, and Eagles, they struggled to move the ball (averaged 285 yards per game). And the latter two defenses, although talented, haven’t been consistent at all this season. There’s certainly cause for concern, especially when it comes playoff time, but their opponent on Thursday is hardly a world-beater. Las Vegas’ defense ranks surprisingly stingy against the run (7th), permitting just 3.9 yards per carry, but in virtually every other category they’re among the worst. Against the pass, in opponent points per game, and whenever their enemy needs to gain a first down, the Raiders are in the bottom third percentile among all NFL teams.

We also expect the Raiders’ offense to regress. Their run-game is completely absent through nine weeks, ranking third-worst or lower in every major category, which means the Broncos’ elite defense can focus on rattling Geno Smith. No defense gets more sacks than Denver ( 11.87% of plays), and they’re among the stingiest in macro-stats, too, allowing only 18.4 points (4th) and 279.9 yards (3rd) per game). Brock Bowers, who’s clearly the star of the team, will likely see many targets, but Denver’s too buttoned up to allow another prolific repeat performance. Our choice is clear.

Raiders vs Broncos best bet: Under 43 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.5.

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Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

DEN Broncos -9.0

Game Totals

Under 42.5

Player Passing Yards

G. Smith (LV) - Under 211.5 pass yds

Reasoning

Denver Broncos -9 over Las Vegas Raiders (-110)

Although I have never been a huge believer in the Broncos, I’m starting to come around. They are on a 5-game winning streak and have not yet lost at home this season. Bo Nix is following up his impressive rookie year with another stellar season, having accounted for 20 total touchdowns (17 passing, 3 rushing) while getting picked off just 3 times in the last 7 games (he previously had 3 INTs in the first 2 contests alone).

Most importantly, when it comes to this particular game, they are playing against the Raiders. Make no mistake about it – this team stinks. Head coach Pete Carroll’s squad seems to be getting worse as the season progresses, too. Las Vegas is 1-6 in its past 7 outings and its lone victory during this stretch has come against a lowly Tennessee outfit. The Raiders have lost by double digits 4 times already in 2025, including by 34 points to the Colts and by 31 to the Chiefs. They have won just 2 road games since Week 2 of last year. The visitors probably won’t come close to doing so on Thursday Night Football.

Under 42.5 (-102)

The combination of Las Vegas’ offense against Denver’s defense is a perfect recipe for the under to cash. In fact, the Broncos’ offense might have to do basically all of the work in order to take this game over the total. After all, it’s hard to see the Raiders doing much of anything. They got shut out by Kansas City in Week 8 and have scored in single digits on 2 other occasions in 2025. In a pair of regular-season losses to Denver last season, not once did Las Vegas reach the 20-point mark.

So far this year, the Broncos rank 3rd league-wide in total defense, 4th in scoring defense (18.4 points per game allowed), 6th in passing defense and 8th in rushing defense. They rank 1st in sacks by a country mile with 40 (no other team has more than 28). CB Pat Surtain II (pectoral) is out, but it hardly mattered during an 18-15 victory over the Texans this past weekend. Denver limited Houston QBs CJ Stroud and Davis Mills to a combined 191 yards through the air. The under is 3-1 in the Raiders’ last 4 overall, 7-1 in their last 8 on the road dating back to last season and 8-3 in the Broncos’ last 11 overall.

Geno Smith (LV) under 211.5 passing yards (-113)

Smith has been held to 180 passing yards or fewer in 4 of the last 7 games, including an inept 67 yards by the Chiefs last month. Moreover, expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as possible on Thursday Night Football. As heavy underdogs, they will want to shorten the game, keep the clock moving and limit the total number of possessions. That’s not to say they’ll be able to do it… but they’ll try. Despite using its 2025 first-round draft pick on RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas is getting next to nothing from the rushing attack. As a result, opposing defenses can drop guys back in coverage to focus on keeping Smith’s air attack under wraps.

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8:20 PM ET

Sun Nov 9

NBC

Steelers

Chargers

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Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers +3.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Chargers pulled out their second straight win and moved to 6-3 on the season but it didn’t come easy. Playing with nothing to lose, the Titans were at their best on Sunday, finally getting through a full game without a turnover. Their offense still wasn’t enough to do anything significant against Jim Harbaugh’s defense, though, a group that held Tennessee to just 20 first downs and 206 yards. The visiting Chargers controlled most of the matchup, behind another Herculean effort by Justin Herbert (250 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, three total touchdowns). Their rushing attack, which was led by second-year back Kimani Vidal, was their biggest letdown of the week, netting only 74 yards on 21 carries between Vidal and Jaret Patterson.

Despite a win, the biggest news from Chargers’ camp was Joe Alt’s season ending ankle injury. The left tackle, who was rated higher than any other player at his position this season, was a massive part of the Bolts’ offense. Without him, the Chargers obviously regressed in weeks prior, starting with a loss at the Giants, a loss versus Washington, a closely fought game against the Dolphins and another loss versus the Colts. In every contest, their offense was more challenged without the 6’8” Alt. Upon his return, the Chargers’ offense instantly looked explosive, affording Herbert more time on every play, until he went down on Sunday. Making matters worse, right tackle Bobby Hart, who’s played well as the Chargers’ front continued to incur injuries, went down with an ankle and groin injury this past Sunday. The Chargers’ injury issues should not be understated, nor would we expect the same production moving forward, although they did trade for Trevor Penning, a veteran left tackle from New Orleans. It remains to be seen how formidable he’ll be in Alt’s absence.

The Steelers are experiencing no such issues. In their best defensive performance of the season, Pittsburgh caused havoc in Week 9 in all the ways we’ve got accustomed to seeing from the star-studded group. As a unit, they had 13 passes deflected, five sacks, five QB hits, six tackles for a loss, and forced six turnovers. It was a sterling reminder of what the Steelers’ defense could be every week if they played up to their potential. Their offense, which continues to defy expectations (25.3 points per game, 12th) despite a shallow roster surrounding Aaron Rodgers, did enough in Week 9, although it was their defense that manufactured the win.

Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense has its struggles, a group that’s 28th in yards per carry (3.8) and 19th in yards per pass (7.0), but we think they can win plenty on defense. Mike Tomlin is an outrageous 67-40-4 (62%) ATS as an underdog, and we like him to get another this Sunday night.

Steelers vs Chargers prediction: Steelers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 45.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Chargers’ offense looked its worst when Joe Alt, their esteemed left tackle who’s now out for the season, wasn’t in the game. Justin Herbert was sacked 10 times in a four-game span, a mark that probably should have been higher but the Miami defense has no pass-rush to speak of. Last week when Alt left their game against Tennessee in the second quarter, the Titans’ defense, a group that ranked below-average by most pass-rushing metrics entering Week 9, trampled Herbert for six sacks.

Of course, besides the Giants, the Chargers haven’t faced an elite pass-rushing defense without Alt, but that’s about to change on Sunday night. The Steelers haven’t always shown their best this season. That’s certainly true defensively, where they permit 24.4 points (21st) and 383.8 (30th) yards per game. That doesn’t change the fact that they own one of the most talented defensive lines in the NFL. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh has gained the most sacks against some of the better offensive lines on their schedule, accruing 22 against the Patriots, Vikings, Browns, and Colts.

The Chargers defense is healthy, which is a big part of why they’ve only allowed 30 total points the past two weeks. We expect them to limit a Steelers’ offense that’s good not great, one that depends on Aaron Rodgers’ savvy and big plays (they’re 7th in points per play) to score points. But the Bolts have been effective at limiting big plays, and they’re a top-4 team unit in the red-zone. The Steelers’ offense also hasn’t been very effective lately, accumulating just 520 yards the last two weeks.

This number is sitting in no man’s land, probably because the two teams combine for a 10-7 record ATS to the over, but we don’t see how either offense will thrive.

Steelers vs Chargers pick: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through the first nine weeks of the 2025 season our record speaks for itself. Our team of handicappers have racked up 73 winning NFL against the spread and moneyline picks (and 1 push), for +8.4 units of profit. On top of that, our NFL over/under picks have landed on 67 games (and 1 push), for a profit of +4 units. When you combine the two, our expert NFL picks have scored +12.4 units of profit so far this season.

Pick	Wins	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (ATS & Moneyline)	73	60	+8.4
Over/Under	71	62	+4
Total	144	122	+12.4

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.