NFL Picks

The battle of purple takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday with a pair of teams off big road wins last week. Baltimore (3-5) has won consecutive games since a 1-5 start, as the Ravens are 2 games back of the Steelers for first place in the AFC North. QB Lamar Jackson threw 4 TDs in his return from a hamstring injury in last Thursday’s 28-6 rout of the Dolphins, while Baltimore’s defense has stepped up recently by allowing 39 points in the past 3 games combined after giving up 44 points in a Week 5 home loss to Houston.

Minnesota (4-4) has won 2 road games against division opponents this season, and comes into this matchup off a huge victory at Detroit as 9.5-point underdogs, 27-24. With the win, the Vikings snapped a 5-game losing streak to the Lions dating back to 2022, as QB J.J. McCarthy tossed a pair of TDs in his first start since Week 2 against Atlanta. Minnesota has started 1-2 at home this season, capped off by a 28-22 defeat to Philadelphia in Week 6 as 2.5-point underdogs.

The Ravens have played 5 of their first 8 games at home, as 2 of the losses came at Buffalo and Kansas City. Baltimore is favored for the 4th time on the road and Sunday will mark the 14th straight game that the Ravens are listed as away chalk. Jackson owns an incredible 24-3 record in his career against NFC opponents, which includes a 34-31 overtime victory over Minnesota in 2021.

Although Minnesota is coming off its best win of the season and returns home, this is a tough spot here against a Baltimore squad starting to put it together with Jackson back. Baltimore’s defense has improved over the last three weeks, while Vikings’ star WR Justin Jefferson is still seeking his first home TD of the season. Let’s go with the Ravens to stay hot and cash against the Vikings.

Ravens vs Vikings prediction: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Both Minnesota and Baltimore are 2 of the biggest over teams in the NFL through 9 weeks. The Vikings are 7-1 to the over, while the Ravens sit 6-2 to the over, as Sunday’s total is listed at 49. Minnesota has cashed the over in 6 consecutive games, while allowing at least 29.6 ppg in the past 3 games. In the first 5 contests, the Vikings yielded 19.4 ppg, including 16.0 ppg at home against the Falcons and Bengals.

The Ravens averaged 40.5 ppg in the first 2 games of the season, but scored a total of 43 points in the 3 games that QB Lamar Jackson missed due to a hamstring injury. In last Thursday’s rout against the Dolphins, the Ravens offense finally got going by scoring 28 points. The only outlier during Jackson’s 3-game absence was a 30-point output in a home rout of the Bears, while the Ravens went 2-1 to the over in those games.

In the 3 highest totals of the season, the Ravens posted a 2-1 over mark despite the total closing higher than 50 points. Baltimore is 4-1 to the over in the five contests with the total of 49 or lower. Taking away the 48-point display against Cincinnati in Week 3, the Vikings have averaged 19.1 ppg in the other 7 games. At home in the first half this season, Minnesota has scored a total of 2 offensive touchdowns.

It’s too easy to blindly take the over here due to both Minnesota and Baltimore having plenty of high-scoring games. The Vikings have combined for 51 points in 2 of QB J.J. McCarthy’s 3 starts, but this is the highest total Minnesota has seen this season. Let’s go with the under here in this important non-conference matchup.

Ravens vs Vikings pick: Under 49 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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The last time the Rams and 49ers got together in Los Angeles in Week 5, it turned into one of the wildest games of the season. San Francisco blew an early 14-0 lead, as Los Angeles rallied back to force overtime tied at 23-23. The 49ers kicked the go-ahead field goal on their first drive in OT, followed by stuffing the Rams on 4th and 1 to close out a 26-23 win as 8.5-point underdogs. QB Mac Jones torched the Rams defense for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns to end a 3-game losing streak to Los Angeles dating back to 2023.

The race for first place in the NFC West down the stretch will be a good one, as Seattle and Los Angeles are tied at 6-2 with San Francisco right behind at 6-3. The Rams are riding a 3-game winning streak since that heartbreaking loss to the 49ers, coming off a 34-10 blowout of the hapless Saints last Sunday as a 14.5-point favorite. Los Angeles could have easily won the 2 games it lost, starting in Philadelphia in Week 3 when the Rams squandered a 26-7 lead in a 33-26 defeat.

San Francisco has alternated wins and losses in each of the 7 games, as the 49ers cruised past the Giants last Sunday, 2.5-point road favorites. Kyle Shanahan’s team is 1-4 against the spread this season following a win, while giving up at least 26 points in the last 3 games off a victory. The 49ers have intercepted 1 pass the whole season, while Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown only 2 interceptions. The Rams have won and covered in all 3 victories away from SoFi Stadium, while winning each of the last 2 visits to Santa Clara. After coming out flat early against the 49ers in the first matchup as a heavy favorite, this is a good buy-low spot on the Rams as a short road favorite.

Rams vs 49ers prediction: Los Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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The first matchup between these NFC West rivals was on its way to an under before Joshua Karty’s game-tying field goal with no time remaining in regulation forced overtime in Week 5. The 49ers eventually won, 26-23 to cash the over of 44, as the total in Sunday’s rematch at Levi’s Stadium has jumped to 49.5. The Rams are 4-3-1 to the under this season, while the 49ers are 5-3-1 to the over. San Francisco is 2-1 to the under at home and its Week 4 loss to Jacksonville went over by one point on a 46 total.

In the 2nd matchup between the Rams and 49ers over the last 3 seasons, the combined scores have been 18, 41, and 45 points. In 3 of 4 games away from SoFi Stadium, the Rams allowed 19 or fewer points. Los Angeles limited Philadelphia to 7 points in the first half before the Eagles scored 26 points in the second half. The Rams have given up 20 points in the past 3 victories since allowing 26 points to the 49ers.

QB Mac Jones averaged 313 passing yards in each of his first 4 starts after taking over for the injured Brock Purdy. However, Jones has put up 193.3 yards per game in each of the past 3 contests for the 49ers. RB Christian McCaffrey has racked up over 100 rushing yards in 2 of the last 3 games, while being held to 52 or fewer yards in 2 home games in September. This game should go under this adjusted high total after the Rams limited the 49ers to 4 field goals in the final 50 minutes in the first matchup.

Rams vs 49ers pick: Under 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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The Chargers pulled out their 2nd straight win and moved to 6-3 on the season, but it didn’t come easy. Playing with nothing to lose, the Titans were at their best on Sunday, finally getting through a full game without a turnover. Their offense still wasn’t enough to do anything significant against Jim Harbaugh’s defense, though, a group that held Tennessee to just 20 first downs and 206 yards. The visiting Chargers controlled most of the matchup, behind another Herculean effort by Justin Herbert (250 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, 3 total touchdowns). Their rushing attack, which was led by 2nd-year back Kimani Vidal, was their biggest letdown of the week, netting only 74 yards on 21 carries between Vidal and Jaret Patterson.

Despite a win, the biggest news from Chargers’ camp was Joe Alt’s season ending ankle injury. The left tackle, who was rated higher than any other player at his position this season, was a massive part of the Bolts’ offense. Without him, the Chargers obviously regressed in weeks prior, starting with a loss at the Giants, a loss versus Washington, a closely-fought game against the Dolphins and another loss versus the Colts. In every contest, their offense was more challenged without the 6’8” Alt. Upon his return, the Chargers’ offense instantly looked explosive, affording Herbert more time on every play, until he went down on Sunday. Making matters worse, right tackle Bobby Hart, who’s played well as the Chargers’ front continued to incur injuries, went down with an ankle and groin injury this past Sunday. The Chargers’ injury issues should not be understated, nor would we expect the same production moving forward, although they did trade for Trevor Penning, a veteran left tackle from New Orleans. It remains to be seen how formidable he’ll be in Alt’s absence.

The Steelers are experiencing no such issues. In their best defensive performance of the season, Pittsburgh caused havoc in Week 9 in all the ways we’ve got accustomed to seeing from the star-studded group. As a unit, they had 13 passes deflected, 5 sacks, 5 QB hits, 6 tackles for a loss, and forced 6 turnovers. It was a sterling reminder of what the Steelers’ defense could be every week if they played up to their potential. Their offense, which continues to defy expectations (25.3 points per game, 12th) despite a shallow roster surrounding Aaron Rodgers, did enough in Week 9, although it was their defense that manufactured the win.

Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense has its struggles, a group that’s 28th in yards per carry (3.8) and 19th in yards per pass (7.0), but we think they can win plenty on defense. Mike Tomlin is an outrageous 67-40-4 (62%) ATS as an underdog, and we like him to get another this Sunday night.

Steelers vs Chargers prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chargers’ offense looked its worst when Joe Alt, their esteemed left tackle who’s now out for the season, wasn’t in the game. Justin Herbert was sacked 10 times in a 4-game span, a mark that probably should have been higher but the Miami defense has no pass-rush to speak of. Last week when Alt left their game against Tennessee in the 2nd quarter, the Titans’ defense, a group that ranked below-average by most pass-rushing metrics entering Week 9, trampled Herbert for 6 sacks.

Of course, besides the Giants, the Chargers haven’t faced an elite pass-rushing defense without Alt, but that’s about to change on Sunday night. The Steelers haven’t always shown their best this season. That’s certainly true defensively, where they permit 24.4 points (21st) and 383.8 (30th) yards per game. That doesn’t change the fact that they own one of the most talented defensive lines in the NFL. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh has gained the most sacks against some of the better offensive lines on their schedule, accruing 22 against the Patriots, Vikings, Browns, and Colts. 

The Chargers defense is healthy, which is a big part of why they’ve only allowed 30 total points the past 2 weeks. We expect them to limit a Steelers’ offense that’s good not great, one that depends on Aaron Rodgers’ savvy and big plays (they’re 7th in points per play) to score points. But the Bolts have been effective at limiting big plays, and they’re a top-4 team unit in the red-zone. The Steelers’ offense also hasn’t been very effective lately, accumulating just 520 yards the last two weeks. 

This number is sitting in no man’s land, probably because the two teams combine for a 10-7 record ATS to the over, but we don’t see how either offense will thrive.

Steelers vs Chargers pick: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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The betting market is still showing love to the Green Bay Packers, even after a disastrous loss to the Carolina Panthers at home this past Sunday. Green Bay notoriously plays with their food, and clearly they didn’t prepare well-enough for a Panthers’ squad that’s vastly improved this season. We’ve seen this shtick from the Packers before; falling asleep in quarters 1-3 before waking up in the fourth and attempting to right their wrongs. It was too little too late in Week 9, as Carolina kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired. Although they gained 369 yards, the Green Bay offense sputtered in the red-zone (1-5).

Perhaps even more concerning is the inconsistency of their defense. Micah Parsons’ effect on the Packers’ defense has been obvious in many big games, but he barely made an impact in Week 9 (1 tackle for a loss, 1 solo tackle, 0 QB hits, 0 sacks). As a unit they held the Panthers to just 265 yards, but the visitors were also 2-3 in the red-zone and were able to play mistake-free football.

If the Packers letdown again this week, that’s going to be a huge issue. The Eagles are coming off a bye-week and their general manager, inarguably the best in the league, has once again reloaded their hyper-talented roster before the deadline, especially on defense. Philly picked up Cornerback Jaire Alexander, corner Michael Carter II, and edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips, adding depth to groups that haven’t been as effective this season.

Eagles’ coach Nick Sirianni is also very good after a bye-week, 4-0 since taking over as the team’s leader and winning by an average margin of 10 points per game. Green Bay has played their best football against their best competition, but this is a huge step up in class against a Philly squad that takes pride in being the cream of the NFC’s crop. Philadelphia is also healthy and playing their best football before the break, pushing past Minnesota and New York before the bye.

Eagles vs Packers prediction: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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The Packers loss in Week 9 was bad enough, losing Tucker Kraft made it sting even more. The dependable tight end has become one of the best in the NFL, tying all receivers with 6 touchdowns this season. He was seen taking over the game with Jordan Love just 2 weeks when they ran roughshod on the Steelers, and he adds a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses – who must contend with a slew of high-end talent in Green Bay’s receiving corps. The Packers will be fine, but adjustments will need to be made. This week they’ll face an Eagles’ defense that hasn’t been stellar for any stretch this season, but moves before the trade deadline suggest they’re all-in for another Super Bowl run with Vic Fangio leading the unit. The Pack have been mostly electric at home, averaging 362 yards per game, although last week’s outing (13 points) was a bit of a head-scratcher.

In what many saw as an outlier since it was a “sandwich spot,” pinned in between two high-profile matchups, we’re going to give a pass to the home team for Week 10. We think they bring the heat and get into the 20s, regardless of the game’s result.

On the other side, a 2-week break is a good thing for an Eagles’ offense that’s been sputtering plenty this season, too. The good news is they looked in top-form before their bye, putting up 788 yards and 66 points in their last 2 outings. The off-and-on nature of the Green Bay defense is tough to figure out, although after a poor showing in Week 9 we project a far better performance on Monday night. Still, the Eagles’ ability to score 20 or more points, which they have accomplished in 6 of 8 contests this season, should not be ignored either. This is another total in limbo between key numbers, but we expect Philly’s trend towards the over (5-3 ATS) to continue in this affair.

Eagles vs Packers pick: Over 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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