NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +30.7 units of profit, from 119 winning picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 8, highlighted by Chargers vs Vikings on Thursday night football, Steelers vs Packers on SNF and Monday Night football, featuring Chiefs vs Commanders.

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8:15 PM ET
Today
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Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Chargers
Vikings
Chargers
Point Spread Pick
MIN Vikings +3.5(-120)

Thursday night games are always tough to predict. In general, there are more outlier results than most contests. Take, for example, the last 3 weeks, when the 49ers, Giants, and Bengals all won outright as considerable underdogs. This game provides an even tougher challenge to handicap, since the Chargers and Vikings are wholly unfamiliar opponents that only face each other once every 4 years. Adding to the puzzle is the fact that both outfits enter Week 8 following losses at home.

From a coaching perspective, this is a very evenly-matched battle. Jim Harbaugh’s prowess as a football coach is common knowledge at this point, a former quarterback who’s as good as any head-man at cultivating his franchise leader, and Harbaugh’s teams are usually known for their playing tough, hard-hitting style. Kevin O’Connell is right there with his elder, one of the NFL’s best young minds who produced multiple playoff rosters with multiple quarterbacks in just 4 years at the helm. 

The most significant difference between the Chargers and Vikings is health. LAC is undergoing a crisis, with important players like left tackle Joe Alt and linebacker Khalil Mack now missing multiple games. Their running back room has also been decimated. Najee Harris was out before the season began and their promising rookie, Omarion Hampton, is on the injured reserve. In Week 7, they only ran for 54 yards against the Colts, forcing Justin Herbert to throw 55 times in what ended up being a blowout loss. 

Minnesota has their share of injuries too (linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, running back Aaron Jones, center Ryan Kelly) but they’re in a better overall position. The Vikings’ depth has proved formidable. Carson Wentz will make his 4th start of the season on Thursday and he’s mostly played well, and O’Connell’s roster still has game-changing star power on both sides of their roster. We can’t support the direction of the home team here.

Vikings vs Chargers prediction: Minnesota Vikings +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 44.5(-110)

Predicting the total may be even more difficult between 2 unfamiliar teams, but the Chargers and Vikings both have similar patterns of performance. Most weeks, each offense finds itself scoring 20 or more points. The Chargers have eclipsed the 20-point mark in 5 out of 7 games, whereas the Vikings have done so in 5 out of 6. Both rosters came into the season known for their defensive prowess, but injuries have held each unit back.

So far, Minnesota would qualify as the better resistance, permitting just 20.8 points and 301.7 yards per game, both top-10 marks. But the Chargers aren’t far behind, permitting 23.3 points (17th) and just 315.9 yards per game (13th). Neither defense limits opposing run games as well, particularly the Chargers. The Vikings are 15th in opponent yards per carry (4.2) but the Chargers are a pitiful 28th, allowing 5.1 yards on each run. 

We like that for both offenses on Thursday. In each case, neither Justin Herbert nor Carson Wentz can depend on their rushing attacks on a weekly basis, both ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rush yards per game. This matchup presents a plus-opportunity for both ground games, while Wentz and Herbert will both want to avenge performances from last Sunday where they threw multiple interceptions in a loss.  This number sits in “no man’s land,” between key numbers for low-scoring and high-scoring projections, but we like the offenses to eventually thrive.

Vikings vs Chargers pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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Money Line & Player Receptions Pick
LA Chargers Win & K. Allen (LAC) 5+ recs(+148)

The Vikings are blitzing at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL through 7 weeks (38.9%) while also leaving the middle of the field open at a 63.9% rate, according to Sharpes Football Analysis. This immediately brings my attention to Keenan Allen, who’s had 5+ receptions in 6 of 7 games this season and has seen 26 of his 65 targets in the short center of the field. Herbert will have to get the ball out quickly to beat the blitz, and that’s where Allen should be a safety valve compared to Quentin Johnson and Ladd McConkey, who are running more deep and intermediate routes this season. Last week, we saw DeVonta Smith lead the Eagles with 4 targets on short routes against this Vikings defense.

Regarding the ML addition of the Chargers, I see them as the more desperate team and home teams are 5-2 SU this season on Thursday Night Football. The Vikings’ wins over their last 4 games aren’t too impressive when you consider that they were against the Jake Browning-led Bengals and Miami Dolphins. This is a get-right game for the Chargers and Joe Alt returning at left tackle puts them over the edge.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Q. Johnston (LAC) to score a TD(+155)

Regardless of how the Chargers offense approaches this contest, they’ll need to have some success through the air. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Quentin Johnston to find the end zone at the current odds. After all, the TCU product is in the midst of a breakout season in 2025, and he’s finally been able to establish a good rapport with Justin Herbert over the first 6 games.

Johnston has hauled in 14 receptions and a pair of touchdowns over the past 3 weeks, which gives us confidence in his ability to haul in a few red-zone targets on TNF, especially since Herbert should be looking to get the ball out quickly against a blitz-happy Vikings defense. Let’s take Johnston to find paydirt for the 6th time this season.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
J. Addison (MIN) to score a TD(+220)

On the Minnesota side of things, the passing game has been a bit up-and-down to this point, which isn’t a surprise given that the Vikings quarterback situation has been in flux this season. This week, Carson Wentz will remain under center for Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and that gives the Vikings a decently high floor in a game that could be deceptively higher scoring.

With that in mind, it’s nice to have Jordan Addison as a security blanket for Wentz and this Minnesota passing offense. In the 3 weeks since Addison returned from a suspension, he has 18 receptions for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown, which bodes well for his target share this week. Let’s roll with the Vikings’ #2 wideout to find the end zone once again on Thursday Night Football.

Same Game Parlay
Money Line
MIN Vikings Win
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
L. McConkey (LAC) to score a TD

Minnesota Vikings ML over LA Chargers (+142)

This seems like an even matchup between 2 teams that are pretty good but nothing special. The margins will probably be small in this TNF battle, one in which a Minnesota win is well within reason. Second-year QB J.J. McCarthy remains sidelined, but veteran Carson Wentz really isn’t a downgrade. Meanwhile, RB Aaron Jones is expected to return for the first time since Week 2.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, is quite decimated on both sides of the ball. Offensive tackle Joe Alt and linebacker Khalil Mack are out. Moreover, both of the Chargers’ top 2 running backs are sidelined. Najee Harris has been out since the start of the year and now rookie Omarion Hampton is on injured reserve. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew rushed for just 54 yards during last week’s setback against Indianapolis, while QB Justin Herbert had an absurd 55 pass attempts. The Bolts have lost 3 of their last 4 contests, so another setback would not come as a huge shock.

Ladd McConkey to score a touchdown (+155)

Minnesota touts a solid defense, but it has given twice as many TDs through the air as on the ground (8 to 4). The Vikes are also allowing 7.5 yards per reception, the ninth most in the league. McConkey should be able to capitalize on such an opportunity. The former Georgia standout has scored a touchdown in 2 of the last 3 contests, and in the past 2 he has made a combined 16 receptions on 24 targets for 167 yards. At +155, McConkey has great value to reach paydirt on Thursday night.

1:00 PM ET
Sun Oct 26
FOX
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Bills
Panthers
Point Spread Pick
BUF Bills -7.0(-115)

Buffalo is back from the bye week, looking to get on track following consecutive losses to New England and Atlanta. The Bills, who started the season at 4-0, are now sitting in 2nd place of the AFC East behind the 5-2 Patriots. Buffalo heads to Carolina to face the Panthers, who are set to start veteran Andy Dalton at QB in place of the injured Bryce Young. The Panthers began the season with road defeats at Jacksonville and Arizona, but Carolina stormed back with 4 wins in their last 5 games. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 home record this season and held off the winless Jets, 13-6 at Met Life Stadium last Sunday. Young sustained a right ankle injury in the 3rd quarter and was replaced by Dalton, who threw for 60 yards in relief.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, coming off the 24-14 Monday night loss to the Falcons in Week 6. QB Josh Allen has thrown multiple TD passes in 4 consecutive games, but last season’s MVP has been intercepted 3 times in the past 2 losses. In both road games, Allen has completed 56.9% of his passes, compared to 73.2% of his attempts at home.

Buffalo has lost 4 of its past 6 away games since last December, while Carolina is 4-0 in its previous 4 home contests. Dalton won his first start with the Panthers last season, but proceeded to drop his next 4 games before Young returned to the lineup. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards per game at 378.3, while Carolina is 7th defensively in yards allowed at 295.7 per game. Carolina has been an underdog in all 3 home games and were close to losing twice to Miami and Dallas. Buffalo will be a public play here, but it’s hard to think the Bills won’t be ready off the bye week trying to snap a 2-game slide against a veteran backup at quarterback for Carolina.

Bills vs Panthers prediction: Buffalo Bills -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 45.5(-110)

Buffalo topped the 30-point mark in each of its 4 victories to begin the season, but has been limited to 34 points in its last 2 losses. The Bills scored a total of one touchdown in the first half against the Patriots and Falcons after posting a pair of TDs in the opening half in each of the previous 3 wins. Carolina has cleared the Over in each of its last 2 home games against Miami and Dallas before easily cashing the under against the offensively-inept Jets in last week’s 13-6 victory. The Panthers deserve credit for exploding at home, scoring 30, 27, and 30 points in 3 games at Bank of America Stadium, as opposed to being held to 13 points or fewer in 3 of 4 road games.

In Andy Dalton’s 5 starts last season, Carolina hit the over 4 times, including a combined 50 points scored 3 times. Sunday’s total is hovering between 45.5 and 46.5 at most books, as Buffalo is 2-0 to the under on the road. This will be the lowest total that the Bills have seen all season, as they have cashed the over on a pair of totals of 50 or higher. However, 5 of the past 7 times as a road favorite, the Bills have combined for 43 or less points. Buffalo’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 167.2, while Carolina is 26th in the league in passing offense, although that was all with Bryce Young at quarterback.

The Panthers have played some wild games at home recently, which included a 30-27 victory over the Cowboys, who rank 1st in the NFL in offense and last in defense. With Carolina taking on a much better defense on Sunday, expect a lower-scoring affair here in Dalton’s first start of the season.

Bills vs Panthers pick: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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1:00 PM ET
Sun Oct 26
CBS
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Dolphins
Falcons
Point Spread Pick
ATL Falcons -7.5(-108)

The Miami Dolphins are in absolute shambles heading into a Week 8 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Miami is 1-6 and is looking like a completely dysfunctional outfit. It’s actually shocking that head coach Mike McDaniel was not fired following a 31-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Although it is true that many of the Dolphins’ losses have been competitive, this is a team that is clearly on the decline — and help isn’t on the way given that receiver Tyreek Hill is out for the year with a knee injury. As a complete fade of Miami rather than instilling confidence in Atlanta, my Dolphins vs Falcons pick is on the home team to win and cover.

There is not a whole lot of good things to say about the Falcons — except for the fact that they are playing at home. Head coach Raheem Morris’ squad has won its last 2 games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium over formidable foes in Washington and Buffalo, whereas it has lost its last 2 road games. There is no reason to think that Miami’s defense has any prayer of containing running back Bijan Robinson. Although I don’t love giving more than a touchdown with the Falcons, under pretty much no circumstances am I willing to put my chips in the center of the Dolphins’ table right now.

Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons prediction: Falcons -7.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 44.5(-110)

This is a dreadful matchup for Miami’s defense, which is the main reason why my Dolphins vs Falcons pick is Over 44.5. The Fins are dead-last in run defense in the entire NFL, giving up 159.3 such yards per contest on 5.2 yards per carry (4th-worst in the league). Robinson was bottled up at San Francisco last weekend, but both he and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. have fared far better at home than they have on the road.

Atlanta’s defensive numbers are outstanding, but that is largely due to playing against a string of unspectacular quarterbacks (other than Josh Allen, of course). They even were lucky enough to face Marcus Mariota instead of Jayden Daniels when the Commanders paid a visit to Atlanta. The Dolphins at least have some talented players on their roster, at least offensively including QB Tua Tagovailoa and RB De’Von Achane. Prior to last week’s stinker against a very good Cleveland defense, Miami had scored more than 20 points in 5 consecutive outings.

Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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1:00 PM ET
Sun Oct 26
CBS
New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
Jets
Bengals
Point Spread Pick
NY Jets +6.5(-110)

The Bengals’ season looked like it was going down the drain after losing 4 straight games since a 2-0 start. However, Cincinnati held off Pittsburgh last Thursday night, 33-31 as 5.5-point home underdogs to improve to 3-4. QB Joe Flacco picked up his first win as a starter with the Bengals by throwing for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns, while WR Ja’Marr Chase hauled in 16 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown.

The 0-7 Jets head to Cincinnati looking to avoid another embarrassing offensive effort. New York has scored a total of 17 points in the last 2 losses to Denver and Carolina, as the Jets have not reached the end zone since Week 5 against Dallas. Head coach Aaron Glenn is withholding his choice of starting quarterback on Sunday after pulling Justin Fields for veteran Tyrod Taylor in last week’s 13-6 defeat to Carolina.

The Bengals are a favorite for the first time since Week 2 against Jacksonville before Joe Burrow suffered his season-long injury. Cincinnati failed to cover in a Week 1 win as a road favorite at Cleveland, then rallied late against the Jaguars to cash as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 2. The Jets are 3-4 against the spread this season, but are 2-1 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or more. In the lone game started by Taylor at Tampa Bay in Week 3, the Jets lost in the final seconds, 29-27 as 6.5-point underdogs.

Cincinnati has covered in both games with Flacco starting, but the Bengals were also a 15-point ‘dog at Green Bay and a 5.5-point ‘dog to Pittsburgh. This season, Flacco is 4-2 ATS as a starting QB with the Browns and Bengals, but this will be the first time he is listed in the favorite role. Even though the Jets’ quarterback situation is in flux, the Bengals still allow the 2nd-most yards per game in the NFL.

Jets vs Bengals prediction: New York Jets +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet
Over 44.5(-110)

New York has not been able to score the last 2 weeks, putting up 17 points after 3 straight games of scoring 20+ points. The Jets are figuring out if Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields will be the starting quarterback, while star WR Garrett Wilson is day-to-day with a knee injury. The Bengals have easily cashed the over in all 3 home games, combining for 58 points or more each time.

Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 27 or more points in 6 consecutive games since giving up 16 points to Joe Flacco and the Browns. Now that Flacco is with the Bengals, the offense has exploded since being shut out in the first half at Green Bay in Week 6. Cincinnati has scored 61 points in the past 6 quarters, capped off by the 33-31 last-second victory in Week 7 against Pittsburgh.

The Jets have played 2 true road games, hitting the over in losses to the Buccaneers and Dolphins, while allowing an average of 28.0 points per game. In Taylor’s lone start at Tampa Bay, he failed to get the Jets in the end zone in the first 3 quarters before New York scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. Granted, one of those TDs came on a blocked field goal returned for a score, but the Jets finally busted out late before losing to the Bucs.

New York has done a solid job limiting opponents to an average of 197.1 passing yards, ranking 9th in the NFL. Star CB Sauce Gardner is questionable for Sunday’s game in concussion protocol, as he looks to play in Cincinnati for the first time in his career, where he played college football for the Bearcats.

The Jets have plenty of questions regarding injuries to key players in this game and don’t even know who the starting quarterback is. However, this total is at 44.5 and we can see some points here with Cincinnati’s resurgence offensively and struggles on the defensive side.

Jets vs Bengals best bet: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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1:00 PM ET
Sun Oct 26
FOX
San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans
49ers
Texans
Point Spread Pick
HOU Texans -1.5(-110)

San Francisco (5-2) has been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL considering all of their injuries on both sides of the ball. QB Brock Purdy has been sidelined the last 6 games with a toe injury, but Mac Jones has stepped in and won 4 of 6 starts. The most recent victory came on Sunday night in a 20-10 home triumph over the Atlanta Falcons. RB Christian McCaffrey exploded for over 200 all-purpose yards and finally posted his first 100-yard rushing game this season.

The Texans started the season at 0-3 with 3 losses by 7 points or less. Houston shut out Tennessee for its first victory, followed by a 44-10 rout of Baltimore to improve to 2-3. The Texans couldn’t reach the .500 mark on Monday, as they fell behind early at Seattle in a 27-19 defeat to the Seahawks. QB C.J. Stroud has yet to throw for 250 yards in a game, while coming off his worst quarterback rating of the season at 59.0 against Seattle.

The 49ers are 1.5-point underdogs, marking their 4th straight game in the underdog role. San Francisco is 2-1 straight-up and against the spread when receiving points, including as an 8.5-point ‘dog in the exciting 26-23 overtime victory against the Rams in Week 5. Kyle Shanahan’s team has gone 3-1 on the road this season, which is a stark contrast from the 4-game away skid to close out 2024.

Houston has played a front-loaded road schedule out of the gate with 4 of 6 games away from the Lone Star State. The Texans are 1-1 at home, with the lone loss coming to the Buccaneers in the final minute in Week 2. Houston ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, while limiting Seattle QB Sam Darnold to 213 yards, his 2nd-lowest output of the season.

The 49ers will be a huge public underdog this week, but the Texans are worth a strong look here looking to bounce back at home.

49ers vs Texans prediction: Houston Texans -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 41.5(-110)

San Francisco was riding a 3-0 over streak prior to an under in Sunday’s 20-10 home victory over Atlanta. The 49ers allowed 23 points or more in each of those 3 games before limiting the Falcons to 1 touchdown and 1 field goal. QB Mac Jones has thrown only 3 touchdown passes in the last 4 games after posting 3 touchdowns in the Week 2 win at New Orleans.

Houston began the season with 4 consecutive unders before cashing the over in each of the last 2 games against Baltimore and Seattle. The Texans had totals of 41 in both those contests, as Houston blasted Baltimore, 41-10, followed by the 27-19 defeat to the Seahawks. Monday’s game against the Seahawks had an opportunity to stay under the total, but the Texans scored a touchdown with 2 minutes to go to barely go over number.

Houston has allowed an average of 179 passing yards per game, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Texans have not given up more than 245 passing yards in a game this season, which actually came in the Week 1 loss to Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Jones has topped the 340-yard passing mark in each of the last 2 road games against the Rams, who rank 13th in passing yards allowed per game and Buccaneers — who are 18th in that category.

Let’s look at the under here, which is the 2nd-lowest total that San Francisco has seen this season.

49ers vs Texans pick: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.

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4:05 PM ET
Sun Oct 26
FOX
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Buccaneers
Saints
Point Spread Pick
TB Buccaneers -4.0(-110)

It will be showdown in the NFC South when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. Despite dealing with all kinds of adversity in the injury department, Tampa Bay looks well on its way to another division title. Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, which is why his team has been able to overcome absences from receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in addition to running back Bucky Irving. It is true that the Bucs have won a lot of close games, but many of those have come against decent opponents (other than the New York Jets, of course). With an opponent that is far from decent on the menu for Sunday, Tampa Bay should be able to win by more than 4 points. As such, my Buccaneers vs Saints prediction is on the visitors to win and cover.

Quite simply, the Saints stink. They managed to beat the New York Giants in Week 5, but that was only because New York committed a ridiculous 5 turnovers and forced none. Despite winning the turnover battle by 5, New Orleans still struggled to pull away. Head coach Kellen Moore’s crew followed that up with losses to New England and Chicago — the latter its third of the season by at least 12 points. The Saints have lost 5 of the last 6 head-to-head matchups, including 2 last year by a combined 32 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints prediction: Buccaneers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet
Under 47.0(-110)

The Saints do not inspire any confidence on the offensive side of the ball. They have been held under the 20-point mark 5 times this season and have scored more than 21 points just once — when they benefited from 5 Giants turnovers and were basically always playing with a short field. Spencer Rattler is nothing more than a game manager at quarterback, counted on primarily to not make mistakes — which he was accomplishing for the most part until suddenly throwing 3 interceptions in last weekend’s loss to Chicago. RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave and TE Juwan Johnson are all listed as questionable for Sunday. It’s hard to see New Orleans scoring many points, so my Buccaneers vs Saints pick is Under 47.

As well as Mayfield is playing, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay putting up a huge number. After all, it was just limited to 9 points by the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. Now one of the most banged-up teams in football has to play on a short week — not good news for the offense. Evans is on injured reserve after breaking his collarbone against Detroit, while Godwin and Irving are also out. The Bucs also have 2 offensive linemen who would be in the lineup on injured reserve and 2 more who are questionable for Sunday. All things considered, let’s back the under with a ton of confidence.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints prediction: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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8:20 PM ET
Sun Oct 26
NBC
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Packers
Steelers
Point Spread PickBest Bet
PIT Steelers +3.0(+100)

The Packers have been unimpressive now for 4 straight weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, which feel like a century ago, Green Bay looked like they might have one of the best rosters in the NFL, anchored by their newest x-factor in Micah Parsons. But since 2 impressive wins at home, it’s been less than stellar. The Packers lost at Cleveland in Week 3, allowing Joe Flacco to score 13 unanswered 4th-quarter points. Then, they tied with Dallas in overtime before they barely got by the hapless Bengals and Cardinals. Jordan Love has been consistent, but that doesn’t mean it’s been anything above average. Through 6 weeks, he ranks 13th with 1,438 passing yards and 15th with 10 touchdowns. Perhaps his greatest quality so far is he doesn’t turn over the ball, throwing just 2 interceptions entering Week 7.  The Packers eventually seem to find ways to score, thriving on third downs (1st, 49.33%), fourth downs (8th, 71.43%), and in red-zone TD-rate (5th, 72%). But they’ve also mostly faced pedestrian defenses. When they have faced above-average defenses (CLE, AZ), it hasn’t been pretty (230 and 262 total yards).

The Steelers are a mirror image of the Packers offensively, with above average marks (25 points per game, 12th) and are at their best on third downs (8th) and in the red zone (4th). The difference in this game is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers undoubtedly cares a lot about this game. In the years to come, he will be memorialized as a first ballot Hall of Famer because of his time in Green Bay, but he also still holds resentment and regret from his time there. He also gets to face his former coach, the same guy who he had plenty of sideline battles and drama with. Following a loss, we love the Steelers to show up for their quarterback, to wreak havoc on defense, and to expose a Green Bay program that’s been regressing for weeks.

Packers vs Steelers best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 45.0(-110)

Normally we would look to fade defense in a battle like this. At face value, this is Green Bay’s current stud-quarterback against their former stud quarterback, so a battle of 2 elite arms slicing and dicing the opposing resistance is the built-in narrative that comes with these clashes. We don’t see that happening in this case. Firstly, while the Green Bay defense has had its head-scratching moments, they play well when they’re in a good spot and/or they’re motivated. Weeks 1 and 2 were prime examples of that, squashing last year’s NFC championship game contestants in consecutive matches. Last week, they turned up the heat on Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals when they needed to, led by a monstrous performance from Micah Parsons (3 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss, 5 QB-hits). Pro Football Focus ranks Parsons as easily the best edge defender in the NFL, while Rashan Gary ranks top-11 against the run and others on their front-seven grade highly. We expect them to come after Rodgers and his colleagues.

The Steelers will look to do the same. Following a startling Week 7 upset in which Joe Flacco played like a 25 year old, Pittsburgh’s defense was beyond humbled, forfeiting 33 points and 470 yards to a Bengals’ offense that was anemic leading into that battle. The duo of Cameron Hayward and TJ Watt will look to avenge that failure from a week ago, and we like how they match-up against a Packers’ offense that hasn’t been explosive on the ground (4 yards per carry, 22nd) and uses their quarterback fewer than 29 other teams (30th in pass-play percentage). The Steelers, who are top-6 in sack-rate (8.49%) can expose a Green Bay front that’s very average (13th in sacks allowed). Against the only elite front-seven they faced this season (CLE), Love was sacked 5 times. Pittsburgh is forecasted to be chilly with a chance of rain; perfect weather conditions for a clash between 2 historic franchises with defenses ready to pounce.

Packers vs Steelers prediction: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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8:15 PM ET
Mon Oct 27
ABC
Washington Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs
Commanders
Chiefs
Point Spread Pick
KC Chiefs -10.0(-110)

The Washington Commanders, who are suffering through a few key injuries, are really going through a tough time right now. Heading into Week 7, they were already without their top-2 wideouts, Deebo Samuel and Terry McClaurin, both of whom may sit again in Week 8, as well as Noah Brown — who’s currently on the injured reserve. Against the Cowboys things turned for the worst when star quarterback Jayden Daniels went down with a hamstring injury. Considering that Daniels already missed time this season and the franchise can’t afford to lose the former LSU quarterback long-term, trusted medical professionals project Daniels will sit at least 2-3 weeks. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Commanders, who will likely start Marcus Mariota in Week 8, since they have a road-spot against one of (if not the) best teams in the NFL on Monday night. The Chiefs started off 2025 in rocky fashion, but they are quickly becoming the same program that’s made 3 straight Super Bowls. In some ways, they look even better than those teams.

Week after week, important Chiefs’ players have returned from injury or suspension, and each week it’s meant better results from Mahomes and his teammates. In Week 7 it was Rashee Rice who returned, further aiding a Kansas City roster that’s already reaching its apex less than halfway through the season. In one of the most disparate box scores you’ll ever see, the Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 434-95 in total yards and, get ready for it, 30-3 in first downs. Of course the Raiders are a complete dumpster-fire and it was hardly a surprise to see a dominant Chiefs’ win, but it was akin to a Super Bowl outfit against a college team. We just don’t see it very often in the modern NFL.

The Commanders are far better than the Raiders overall, but in their current predicament we’re not sure if it’s enough to cover this line. In 2 starts, Mariota has been a decent back-up for Daniels (363 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But last week, against a motivated Dallas-defense, he instantly proved why he’s a huge step down from #5, throwing a hellacious interception and unable to move the offense in Daniels’ absence. Aside from left tackle Josh Simmons, who’s dealing with something mysterious that’s keeping him off the field (Andy Reid has yet to expand on what’s happening), the Chiefs are completely healthy, at home, and look as potent and buttoned up as they ever have. The choice is clear.

Commanders vs Chiefs prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 48.5(-110)

Although Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will always get more flowers, what their defense has done the last two weeks may be the most impressive. At home against the Lions in Week 6, an offense that’s typically a juggernaut against any opponent, Kansas City held Jared Goff and company to just 297 total yards and 18 first downs. Last week the Raiders never had a chance, earning an unbelievably low 3.2 yards per play and just 3 total first downs for the entirety of the contest. Las Vegas also went 0-7 on third down and didn’t reach the red-zone once.  At home, the Kansas City defense is clearly at its best. Even if we take away a scoreless showing from the Raiders, Kansas City is holding opponents to just 21 points per game at Arrowhead. 

Of course, teams that scored more against KC were led by significantly better offenses. Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts both found some success in Weeks 1 and 2, even though the Eagles only gained 216 yards. The Commanders, who might be without their three most important offensive starters, are in a very vulnerable position, one that simply cannot mimic what LAC or Philadelphia brought to the table.

On the other side, the Commanders have a respectable defense that ranks 18th overall on Pro Football Focus and permits 24.3 points per game (21st). In general they are good, not great, but head coach Dan Quinn was brought to Washington because of his defensive acumen and leadership. Against a Kansas City offense that’s humming, Quinn knows that their only chance to win is an A+ performance on the defensive side of the ball. Since we don’t anticipate much from Washington on offense, there’s only one way we can look.

Commanders vs Chiefs pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through the first seven weeks of the 2025 season our record speaks for itself. Our team of handicappers have racked up 63 winning NFL against the spread and moneyline picks (and 1 push), for +29.1 units of profit. On top of that, our NFL over/under picks have landed on 56 games, for a profit of +1.6 units. When you combine the two, our expert NFL picks have scored +30.7 units of profit so far this season.

PickWinsProfit (betting units)
Sides (ATS & Moneyline)63+29.1
Over/Under56+1.6
Total119+30.7

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

  • The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
  • Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
  • Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

  • Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
  • Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
  • Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

  • Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
  • Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
  • Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule 

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season. 

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

 

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.

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