NFL Picks

Thursday night games are always tough to predict. In general, there are more outlier results than most contests. Take, for example, the last 3 weeks, when the 49ers, Giants, and Bengals all won outright as considerable underdogs. This game provides an even tougher challenge to handicap, since the Chargers and Vikings are wholly unfamiliar opponents that only face each other once every 4 years. Adding to the puzzle is the fact that both outfits enter Week 8 following losses at home.

From a coaching perspective, this is a very evenly-matched battle. Jim Harbaugh’s prowess as a football coach is common knowledge at this point, a former quarterback who’s as good as any head-man at cultivating his franchise leader, and Harbaugh’s teams are usually known for their playing tough, hard-hitting style. Kevin O’Connell is right there with his elder, one of the NFL’s best young minds who produced multiple playoff rosters with multiple quarterbacks in just 4 years at the helm. 

The most significant difference between the Chargers and Vikings is health. LAC is undergoing a crisis, with important players like left tackle Joe Alt and linebacker Khalil Mack now missing multiple games. Their running back room has also been decimated. Najee Harris was out before the season began and their promising rookie, Omarion Hampton, is on the injured reserve. In Week 7, they only ran for 54 yards against the Colts, forcing Justin Herbert to throw 55 times in what ended up being a blowout loss. 

Minnesota has their share of injuries too (linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, running back Aaron Jones, center Ryan Kelly) but they’re in a better overall position. The Vikings’ depth has proved formidable. Carson Wentz will make his 4th start of the season on Thursday and he’s mostly played well, and O’Connell’s roster still has game-changing star power on both sides of their roster. We can’t support the direction of the home team here.

Vikings vs Chargers prediction: Minnesota Vikings +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Predicting the total may be even more difficult between 2 unfamiliar teams, but the Chargers and Vikings both have similar patterns of performance. Most weeks, each offense finds itself scoring 20 or more points. The Chargers have eclipsed the 20-point mark in 5 out of 7 games, whereas the Vikings have done so in 5 out of 6. Both rosters came into the season known for their defensive prowess, but injuries have held each unit back.

So far, Minnesota would qualify as the better resistance, permitting just 20.8 points and 301.7 yards per game, both top-10 marks. But the Chargers aren’t far behind, permitting 23.3 points (17th) and just 315.9 yards per game (13th). Neither defense limits opposing run games as well, particularly the Chargers. The Vikings are 15th in opponent yards per carry (4.2) but the Chargers are a pitiful 28th, allowing 5.1 yards on each run. 

We like that for both offenses on Thursday. In each case, neither Justin Herbert nor Carson Wentz can depend on their rushing attacks on a weekly basis, both ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rush yards per game. This matchup presents a plus-opportunity for both ground games, while Wentz and Herbert will both want to avenge performances from last Sunday where they threw multiple interceptions in a loss.  This number sits in “no man’s land,” between key numbers for low-scoring and high-scoring projections, but we like the offenses to eventually thrive.

Vikings vs Chargers pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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The Vikings are blitzing at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL through 7 weeks (38.9%) while also leaving the middle of the field open at a 63.9% rate, according to Sharpes Football Analysis. This immediately brings my attention to Keenan Allen, who’s had 5+ receptions in 6 of 7 games this season and has seen 26 of his 65 targets in the short center of the field. Herbert will have to get the ball out quickly to beat the blitz, and that’s where Allen should be a safety valve compared to Quentin Johnson and Ladd McConkey, who are running more deep and intermediate routes this season. Last week, we saw DeVonta Smith lead the Eagles with 4 targets on short routes against this Vikings defense.

Regarding the ML addition of the Chargers, I see them as the more desperate team and home teams are 5-2 SU this season on Thursday Night Football. The Vikings’ wins over their last 4 games aren’t too impressive when you consider that they were against the Jake Browning-led Bengals and Miami Dolphins. This is a get-right game for the Chargers and Joe Alt returning at left tackle puts them over the edge.

Regardless of how the Chargers offense approaches this contest, they’ll need to have some success through the air. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Quentin Johnston to find the end zone at the current odds. After all, the TCU product is in the midst of a breakout season in 2025, and he’s finally been able to establish a good rapport with Justin Herbert over the first 6 games.

Johnston has hauled in 14 receptions and a pair of touchdowns over the past 3 weeks, which gives us confidence in his ability to haul in a few red-zone targets on TNF, especially since Herbert should be looking to get the ball out quickly against a blitz-happy Vikings defense. Let’s take Johnston to find paydirt for the 6th time this season.

On the Minnesota side of things, the passing game has been a bit up-and-down to this point, which isn’t a surprise given that the Vikings quarterback situation has been in flux this season. This week, Carson Wentz will remain under center for Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and that gives the Vikings a decently high floor in a game that could be deceptively higher scoring.

With that in mind, it’s nice to have Jordan Addison as a security blanket for Wentz and this Minnesota passing offense. In the 3 weeks since Addison returned from a suspension, he has 18 receptions for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown, which bodes well for his target share this week. Let’s roll with the Vikings’ #2 wideout to find the end zone once again on Thursday Night Football.

Buffalo is back from the bye week, looking to get on track following consecutive losses to New England and Atlanta. The Bills, who started the season at 4-0, are now sitting in 2nd place of the AFC East behind the 5-2 Patriots. Buffalo heads to Carolina to face the Panthers, who are set to start veteran Andy Dalton at QB in place of the injured Bryce Young. The Panthers began the season with road defeats at Jacksonville and Arizona, but Carolina stormed back with 4 wins in their last 5 games. Carolina owns a perfect 3-0 home record this season and held off the winless Jets, 13-6 at Met Life Stadium last Sunday. Young sustained a right ankle injury in the 3rd quarter and was replaced by Dalton, who threw for 60 yards in relief.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, coming off the 24-14 Monday night loss to the Falcons in Week 6. QB Josh Allen has thrown multiple TD passes in 4 consecutive games, but last season’s MVP has been intercepted 3 times in the past 2 losses. In both road games, Allen has completed 56.9% of his passes, compared to 73.2% of his attempts at home.

Buffalo has lost 4 of its past 6 away games since last December, while Carolina is 4-0 in its previous 4 home contests. Dalton won his first start with the Panthers last season, but proceeded to drop his next 4 games before Young returned to the lineup. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards per game at 378.3, while Carolina is 7th defensively in yards allowed at 295.7 per game. Carolina has been an underdog in all 3 home games and were close to losing twice to Miami and Dallas. Buffalo will be a public play here, but it’s hard to think the Bills won’t be ready off the bye week trying to snap a 2-game slide against a veteran backup at quarterback for Carolina.

Bills vs Panthers prediction: Buffalo Bills -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Buffalo topped the 30-point mark in each of its 4 victories to begin the season, but has been limited to 34 points in its last 2 losses. The Bills scored a total of one touchdown in the first half against the Patriots and Falcons after posting a pair of TDs in the opening half in each of the previous 3 wins. Carolina has cleared the Over in each of its last 2 home games against Miami and Dallas before easily cashing the under against the offensively-inept Jets in last week’s 13-6 victory. The Panthers deserve credit for exploding at home, scoring 30, 27, and 30 points in 3 games at Bank of America Stadium, as opposed to being held to 13 points or fewer in 3 of 4 road games.

In Andy Dalton’s 5 starts last season, Carolina hit the over 4 times, including a combined 50 points scored 3 times. Sunday’s total is hovering between 45.5 and 46.5 at most books, as Buffalo is 2-0 to the under on the road. This will be the lowest total that the Bills have seen all season, as they have cashed the over on a pair of totals of 50 or higher. However, 5 of the past 7 times as a road favorite, the Bills have combined for 43 or less points. Buffalo’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 167.2, while Carolina is 26th in the league in passing offense, although that was all with Bryce Young at quarterback.

The Panthers have played some wild games at home recently, which included a 30-27 victory over the Cowboys, who rank 1st in the NFL in offense and last in defense. With Carolina taking on a much better defense on Sunday, expect a lower-scoring affair here in Dalton’s first start of the season.

Bills vs Panthers pick: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Bengals’ season looked like it was going down the drain after losing 4 straight games since a 2-0 start. However, Cincinnati held off Pittsburgh last Thursday night, 33-31 as 5.5-point home underdogs to improve to 3-4. QB Joe Flacco picked up his first win as a starter with the Bengals by throwing for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns, while WR Ja’Marr Chase hauled in 16 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown.

The 0-7 Jets head to Cincinnati looking to avoid another embarrassing offensive effort. New York has scored a total of 17 points in the last 2 losses to Denver and Carolina, as the Jets have not reached the end zone since Week 5 against Dallas. Head coach Aaron Glenn is withholding his choice of starting quarterback on Sunday after pulling Justin Fields for veteran Tyrod Taylor in last week’s 13-6 defeat to Carolina.

The Bengals are a favorite for the first time since Week 2 against Jacksonville before Joe Burrow suffered his season-long injury. Cincinnati failed to cover in a Week 1 win as a road favorite at Cleveland, then rallied late against the Jaguars to cash as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 2. The Jets are 3-4 against the spread this season, but are 2-1 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or more. In the lone game started by Taylor at Tampa Bay in Week 3, the Jets lost in the final seconds, 29-27 as 6.5-point underdogs.

Cincinnati has covered in both games with Flacco starting, but the Bengals were also a 15-point ‘dog at Green Bay and a 5.5-point ‘dog to Pittsburgh. This season, Flacco is 4-2 ATS as a starting QB with the Browns and Bengals, but this will be the first time he is listed in the favorite role. Even though the Jets’ quarterback situation is in flux, the Bengals still allow the 2nd-most yards per game in the NFL.

Jets vs Bengals prediction: New York Jets +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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New York has not been able to score the last 2 weeks, putting up 17 points after 3 straight games of scoring 20+ points. The Jets are figuring out if Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields will be the starting quarterback, while star WR Garrett Wilson is day-to-day with a knee injury. The Bengals have easily cashed the over in all 3 home games, combining for 58 points or more each time.

Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 27 or more points in 6 consecutive games since giving up 16 points to Joe Flacco and the Browns. Now that Flacco is with the Bengals, the offense has exploded since being shut out in the first half at Green Bay in Week 6. Cincinnati has scored 61 points in the past 6 quarters, capped off by the 33-31 last-second victory in Week 7 against Pittsburgh.

The Jets have played 2 true road games, hitting the over in losses to the Buccaneers and Dolphins, while allowing an average of 28.0 points per game. In Taylor’s lone start at Tampa Bay, he failed to get the Jets in the end zone in the first 3 quarters before New York scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. Granted, one of those TDs came on a blocked field goal returned for a score, but the Jets finally busted out late before losing to the Bucs.

New York has done a solid job limiting opponents to an average of 197.1 passing yards, ranking 9th in the NFL. Star CB Sauce Gardner is questionable for Sunday’s game in concussion protocol, as he looks to play in Cincinnati for the first time in his career, where he played college football for the Bearcats.

The Jets have plenty of questions regarding injuries to key players in this game and don’t even know who the starting quarterback is. However, this total is at 44.5 and we can see some points here with Cincinnati’s resurgence offensively and struggles on the defensive side.

Jets vs Bengals best bet: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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San Francisco (5-2) has been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL considering all of their injuries on both sides of the ball. QB Brock Purdy has been sidelined the last 6 games with a toe injury, but Mac Jones has stepped in and won 4 of 6 starts. The most recent victory came on Sunday night in a 20-10 home triumph over the Atlanta Falcons. RB Christian McCaffrey exploded for over 200 all-purpose yards and finally posted his first 100-yard rushing game this season.

The Texans started the season at 0-3 with 3 losses by 7 points or less. Houston shut out Tennessee for its first victory, followed by a 44-10 rout of Baltimore to improve to 2-3. The Texans couldn’t reach the .500 mark on Monday, as they fell behind early at Seattle in a 27-19 defeat to the Seahawks. QB C.J. Stroud has yet to throw for 250 yards in a game, while coming off his worst quarterback rating of the season at 59.0 against Seattle.

The 49ers are 1.5-point underdogs, marking their 4th straight game in the underdog role. San Francisco is 2-1 straight-up and against the spread when receiving points, including as an 8.5-point ‘dog in the exciting 26-23 overtime victory against the Rams in Week 5. Kyle Shanahan’s team has gone 3-1 on the road this season, which is a stark contrast from the 4-game away skid to close out 2024.

Houston has played a front-loaded road schedule out of the gate with 4 of 6 games away from the Lone Star State. The Texans are 1-1 at home, with the lone loss coming to the Buccaneers in the final minute in Week 2. Houston ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, while limiting Seattle QB Sam Darnold to 213 yards, his 2nd-lowest output of the season.

The 49ers will be a huge public underdog this week, but the Texans are worth a strong look here looking to bounce back at home.

49ers vs Texans prediction: Houston Texans -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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San Francisco was riding a 3-0 over streak prior to an under in Sunday’s 20-10 home victory over Atlanta. The 49ers allowed 23 points or more in each of those 3 games before limiting the Falcons to 1 touchdown and 1 field goal. QB Mac Jones has thrown only 3 touchdown passes in the last 4 games after posting 3 touchdowns in the Week 2 win at New Orleans.

Houston began the season with 4 consecutive unders before cashing the over in each of the last 2 games against Baltimore and Seattle. The Texans had totals of 41 in both those contests, as Houston blasted Baltimore, 41-10, followed by the 27-19 defeat to the Seahawks. Monday’s game against the Seahawks had an opportunity to stay under the total, but the Texans scored a touchdown with 2 minutes to go to barely go over number.

Houston has allowed an average of 179 passing yards per game, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Texans have not given up more than 245 passing yards in a game this season, which actually came in the Week 1 loss to Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Jones has topped the 340-yard passing mark in each of the last 2 road games against the Rams, who rank 13th in passing yards allowed per game and Buccaneers — who are 18th in that category.

Let’s look at the under here, which is the 2nd-lowest total that San Francisco has seen this season.

49ers vs Texans pick: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.

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The Packers have been unimpressive now for 4 straight weeks. In Weeks 1 and 2, which feel like a century ago, Green Bay looked like they might have one of the best rosters in the NFL, anchored by their newest x-factor in Micah Parsons. But since 2 impressive wins at home, it’s been less than stellar. The Packers lost at Cleveland in Week 3, allowing Joe Flacco to score 13 unanswered 4th-quarter points. Then, they tied with Dallas in overtime before they barely got by the hapless Bengals and Cardinals. Jordan Love has been consistent, but that doesn’t mean it’s been anything above average. Through 6 weeks, he ranks 13th with 1,438 passing yards and 15th with 10 touchdowns. Perhaps his greatest quality so far is he doesn’t turn over the ball, throwing just 2 interceptions entering Week 7.  The Packers eventually seem to find ways to score, thriving on third downs (1st, 49.33%), fourth downs (8th, 71.43%), and in red-zone TD-rate (5th, 72%). But they’ve also mostly faced pedestrian defenses. When they have faced above-average defenses (CLE, AZ), it hasn’t been pretty (230 and 262 total yards).

The Steelers are a mirror image of the Packers offensively, with above average marks (25 points per game, 12th) and are at their best on third downs (8th) and in the red zone (4th). The difference in this game is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers undoubtedly cares a lot about this game. In the years to come, he will be memorialized as a first ballot Hall of Famer because of his time in Green Bay, but he also still holds resentment and regret from his time there. He also gets to face his former coach, the same guy who he had plenty of sideline battles and drama with. Following a loss, we love the Steelers to show up for their quarterback, to wreak havoc on defense, and to expose a Green Bay program that’s been regressing for weeks.

Packers vs Steelers best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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Normally we would look to fade defense in a battle like this. At face value, this is Green Bay’s current stud-quarterback against their former stud quarterback, so a battle of 2 elite arms slicing and dicing the opposing resistance is the built-in narrative that comes with these clashes. We don’t see that happening in this case. Firstly, while the Green Bay defense has had its head-scratching moments, they play well when they’re in a good spot and/or they’re motivated. Weeks 1 and 2 were prime examples of that, squashing last year’s NFC championship game contestants in consecutive matches. Last week, they turned up the heat on Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals when they needed to, led by a monstrous performance from Micah Parsons (3 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss, 5 QB-hits). Pro Football Focus ranks Parsons as easily the best edge defender in the NFL, while Rashan Gary ranks top-11 against the run and others on their front-seven grade highly. We expect them to come after Rodgers and his colleagues.

The Steelers will look to do the same. Following a startling Week 7 upset in which Joe Flacco played like a 25 year old, Pittsburgh’s defense was beyond humbled, forfeiting 33 points and 470 yards to a Bengals’ offense that was anemic leading into that battle. The duo of Cameron Hayward and TJ Watt will look to avenge that failure from a week ago, and we like how they match-up against a Packers’ offense that hasn’t been explosive on the ground (4 yards per carry, 22nd) and uses their quarterback fewer than 29 other teams (30th in pass-play percentage). The Steelers, who are top-6 in sack-rate (8.49%) can expose a Green Bay front that’s very average (13th in sacks allowed). Against the only elite front-seven they faced this season (CLE), Love was sacked 5 times. Pittsburgh is forecasted to be chilly with a chance of rain; perfect weather conditions for a clash between 2 historic franchises with defenses ready to pounce.

Packers vs Steelers prediction: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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The Washington Commanders, who are suffering through a few key injuries, are really going through a tough time right now. Heading into Week 7, they were already without their top-2 wideouts, Deebo Samuel and Terry McClaurin, both of whom may sit again in Week 8, as well as Noah Brown — who’s currently on the injured reserve. Against the Cowboys things turned for the worst when star quarterback Jayden Daniels went down with a hamstring injury. Considering that Daniels already missed time this season and the franchise can’t afford to lose the former LSU quarterback long-term, trusted medical professionals project Daniels will sit at least 2-3 weeks. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Commanders, who will likely start Marcus Mariota in Week 8, since they have a road-spot against one of (if not the) best teams in the NFL on Monday night. The Chiefs started off 2025 in rocky fashion, but they are quickly becoming the same program that’s made 3 straight Super Bowls. In some ways, they look even better than those teams.

Week after week, important Chiefs’ players have returned from injury or suspension, and each week it’s meant better results from Mahomes and his teammates. In Week 7 it was Rashee Rice who returned, further aiding a Kansas City roster that’s already reaching its apex less than halfway through the season. In one of the most disparate box scores you’ll ever see, the Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 434-95 in total yards and, get ready for it, 30-3 in first downs. Of course the Raiders are a complete dumpster-fire and it was hardly a surprise to see a dominant Chiefs’ win, but it was akin to a Super Bowl outfit against a college team. We just don’t see it very often in the modern NFL.

The Commanders are far better than the Raiders overall, but in their current predicament we’re not sure if it’s enough to cover this line. In 2 starts, Mariota has been a decent back-up for Daniels (363 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But last week, against a motivated Dallas-defense, he instantly proved why he’s a huge step down from #5, throwing a hellacious interception and unable to move the offense in Daniels’ absence. Aside from left tackle Josh Simmons, who’s dealing with something mysterious that’s keeping him off the field (Andy Reid has yet to expand on what’s happening), the Chiefs are completely healthy, at home, and look as potent and buttoned up as they ever have. The choice is clear.

Commanders vs Chiefs prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5.

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Although Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will always get more flowers, what their defense has done the last two weeks may be the most impressive. At home against the Lions in Week 6, an offense that’s typically a juggernaut against any opponent, Kansas City held Jared Goff and company to just 297 total yards and 18 first downs. Last week the Raiders never had a chance, earning an unbelievably low 3.2 yards per play and just 3 total first downs for the entirety of the contest. Las Vegas also went 0-7 on third down and didn’t reach the red-zone once.  At home, the Kansas City defense is clearly at its best. Even if we take away a scoreless showing from the Raiders, Kansas City is holding opponents to just 21 points per game at Arrowhead. 

Of course, teams that scored more against KC were led by significantly better offenses. Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts both found some success in Weeks 1 and 2, even though the Eagles only gained 216 yards. The Commanders, who might be without their three most important offensive starters, are in a very vulnerable position, one that simply cannot mimic what LAC or Philadelphia brought to the table.

On the other side, the Commanders have a respectable defense that ranks 18th overall on Pro Football Focus and permits 24.3 points per game (21st). In general they are good, not great, but head coach Dan Quinn was brought to Washington because of his defensive acumen and leadership. Against a Kansas City offense that’s humming, Quinn knows that their only chance to win is an A+ performance on the defensive side of the ball. Since we don’t anticipate much from Washington on offense, there’s only one way we can look.

Commanders vs Chiefs pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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