NFL Picks

Get expert NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our free NFL picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. Bet smarter with our NFL picks this week, and every week of the NFL season.

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8:15 PM ET

Thu Sep 18

Amazon Prime Video

Dolphins

Bills

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Point Spread Pick

MIA Dolphins +13.0(-110)

Reasoning

There’s a ton of negative press coming out of Miami. Some of that is well-founded and justified, some of it isn’t. The reality is, the Dolphins lost again in Week 2, allowing the Patriots to put 33 points on the board along the way, yet another indictment for Mike McDaniel and his current influence over the Fins’ locker room. The visitors also made fewer mistakes in the 4th quarter, which ended up deciding the contest.

Offensively, there was much to appreciate about Miami. Tua Tagovailoa completed 26 out of 32 passes (81%) for 315 yards at a 9.8 yards per pass clip. Tyreek Hill finally caught a ball over 30 yards and eclipsed 100 receiving yards, too. Tua had 1 bad interception, but overall the Dolphins offense looked similar to what it once was, minus a productive run game. One area of concern was their offensive line, which struggled blocking on runs and allowed 5 sacks and 5 quarterback hits.

Miami’s defense was also largely horrific for the entire contest. An offense not known for its explosiveness, New England gained 18 first downs and 333 total yards, going 7-12 on 3rd-down conversions and 3-4 in the red zone. The Dolphins’ defensive showings the first two weeks are extremely concerning, to say the least, especially before traveling up to face a juggernaut at Orchard Park.

There is less to say about Buffalo because their Week 2 outcome was predictable. The Bills’ offensive line dominated the Jets all game, enabling 224 rushing yards for an offense that barely needs a run game with Josh Allen under center. Justin Fields eventually got injured, and Tyrod Taylor couldn’t do much better against a Buffalo defense that came ready to dominate, too. We didn’t learn much about the Bills last Sunday, besides the fact that they are still on a different planet than the Jets.

In the last 2 seasons, Buffalo has dominated Miami. 2 games were close, 2 games were not. Oddsmakers think this one will not be close at all, thus a giant spread, but we’re going to stick our necks out for Miami. There is nothing in pro football that makes a team more desperate than the potential of going 0-3. We think they put up some offense and hang around, in what feels like ultimately an inevitable loss.

Dolphins vs Bills prediction: Dolphins +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 12.

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BET +12.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Game Totals Pick

Over 49.5(-110)

Reasoning

If Miami can stay somewhat consistent offensively, this is a team that could become a darling for “overs” all season, and that’s mostly because of their defense. It’s hard to put into words how bad the Dolphins’ defense was in Week 2. When the Patriots needed a 4th-down conversion, they got it. When they were in the red zone, they scored, and it was the best New England’s run game looked like since December 22 of last season. The Dolphins were able to generate pressure on a few plays, sacking Drake Maye 3 times, but part of that was on a 2nd-year quarterback holding onto the ball for far too long. In short, the Dolphins’ defense is heading to Buffalo without any confidence or belief that they can stymie the Bills at all, and we can’t blame them.

In 2weeks, the Bills have already stacked up 900 total yards. Whether through the air or on the ground, Buffalo’s pass-protection has largely been amazing (Allen has only been sacked twice), and their creative run-blocking schemes have immediately freed up James Cook. The crafty running back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and already has 3 touchdowns.

The biggest question for Thursday’s total is on Miami’s side. In support of points, Tua finally settled in and looked more like himself, generating an 81% completion rate on 9.8 yards per pass. DeVon Achane never had a big run, but he has the same explosiveness and speed that made him so dangerous last season. He had 8 catches for 92 yards. The same can be said for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combined for 11 catches and 177 yards.

Interestingly, Miami has put up more points every season under Mike McDaniel when they’ve played at Buffalo, not in South Florida. Orchard Park will be in the low-70s and perfect football weather at gametime, so we simply can’t look any other way.

Dolphins vs Bills best bet: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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BET o49.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

4:25 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

Titans

49ers

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Point Spread Pick

TEN Titans +7.5(-110)

Reasoning

By the time Week 14 rolls around, #1 overall Cam Ward should have found his footing in the NFL. That’s not to say Tennessee’s offense will be a well-oiled machine at this point, but it should at least resemble something respectable. As for the 49ers, they seem to be a team on the decline. This franchise might be tempted to blow it all up sooner rather than later, and this late in the 2025 campaign it could be time to tank for a high draft pick. There’s no way I’m giving the Titans more than a touchdown.

BET +7.5 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

8:20 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

Broncos

Commanders

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Point Spread Pick

WSH Commanders -2.5(-110)

Reasoning

I’m not a believer in the Broncos. Even if you are a believer, 2.5 points still isn’t enough in this Sunday Night Football showdown. The Commanders are in Washington for this one and teams generally get a 3-point bonus at home, so that means the oddsmakers rate the Broncos as on par or even as the superior of the 2 teams. That’s a no from me, dawg. Jayden Daniels is a much more dynamic quarterback than Bo Nix (and compared to almost everyone), plus he is armed with a better supporting cast. As of right now, this is by far my favorite bet of the season.

BET -2.5 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

NFL Picks This Week

There are just 18 weeks in the NFL regular season with a maximum of 16 games per week, but NFL Betting is easily the most popular in North America amongst bettors. Our expert handicappers bring decades of experience to all of our NFL picks, providing the best insight, analysis, and value – making every single one of our free NFL picks an expert NFL pick.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams on Thursday Night Football covered the spread less than 40% of the time.
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Moneyline favourites win 66% of the time over the last two seasons, but the underdogs offer better value returns winning 33% of the time
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free expert NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game.

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week. Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods.