Against The Spread Pick
The NFC Champion will be crowned on Sunday as the Green Bay Packers head to California to take on the No.1 seed San Francisco 49ers. For the Packers, they have not been the underdog in quite some time especially not a touchdown dog. Looking back in the NFL data chest, the Packers have been seven-point underdogs only 20 times since 1995. However, when they are underdogs, they do not do so well. In those 20 games, the Packers only managed to win three. With a lot on the line, can the Packers destroy that trend? Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams need to be on the same wave-length on Sunday. They clearly were against the Seahawks as they connected eight times for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Even though Rodgers and Adams might be rolling into this game with their heads held high, Adams had one of his worst games this season against the 49ers. Adams finished the 37-8 beatdown by the 49ers in week 12 with only 43 receiving yards. One of those reasons being cornerback Richard Sherman lined-up against Adams on nearly 50% of the offensive snaps. Sherman only allowed seven yards to Adams in the man-to-man coverage. Expect Sherman to be all over Adams on Sunday and expect him to not leave his side. Taking a look at the 49ers, they are complete on both sides of the ball. As they showcased in the divisional round against the Vikings, they can run the ball every down and still score. San Fran finished with 186 rushing yards on the day and should be expecting around the same result as the Packers are allowing 119.47 rushing yards per game which is 23rd in the league. Rodgers might be the best quarterback on the field, but Garoppolo is playing on the best team on Sunday. Give me the Niners as they cover and gear up for their first Super Bowl appearance since 2013.
Over Under Pick
It is going to be extremely hard for the Packers to score on Sunday and that is obviously a concern for any Over bet. Green Bay barely scored over seven points in the first matchup and Vegas currently has the Packers team total at 17.5 for Sunday. At best, I can see the Packers scoring 17 points in this game. San Francisco’s pass rush is near perfect – remember they sacked Rodgers five times in the 1st meeting. The NFL’s second-ranked defense is about to showcase why they deserved to be ranked first in the NFL with another excellent performance. The Under is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last 4 playoff games and 5-1 in their last six games in January. Defensive ends Dee Ford and Nick Bosa are going to cause mayhem for this Packers offense as the 49ers shutdown Rodgers. On the other side, expect San Fran to run the ball at least 30+ times. Give me the Under.