NFL Picks
NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +37 units of profit, from 73 winning picks so far this season is the proof.
Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 5, highlighted by 49ers vs Rams on Thursday night football, Patriots vs Bills on SNF and Chiefs vs Jaguars on Monday Night football.
The New York Jets are still in search of their first victory in this 2025 NFL season as they head into a home game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5 on Sunday afternoon. Mainly because of how New York has looked so far, my Cowboys vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. It’s hard to even describe how bad the Jets were on Monday night against the Miami Dolphins. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad committed a ridiculous 13 penalties for 101 yards and turned the ball over 3 times (all 3 with fumbles). It was a comedy of errors against an opponent that was also winless going into Week 4.
Now the Jets have to face a much tougher opponent and they are playing on a short week. Yes, they have home-field advantage — but it’s not like the Jets have been good even in East Rutherford and the Cowboys have actually been better on the road than they have been in Dallas for the most part in recent seasons. This sets up very well for the ‘Boys, who are coming off an impressive 40-40 tie against the high-powered Green Bay Packers last weekend. Dallas may not play much defense with Micah Parsons no longer roaming the field for them, but Dak Prescott is performing at an MVP level so far this year. Prescott has thrown for 1,119 yards and 6 touchdowns; Dallas has already reached the 40-point mark twice in 2025. In Week 5, the Cowboys meet an opponent that has not forced a single turnover this entire season. I don’t think the Jets can keep up in a track meet.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets prediction: Cowboys -2.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Cowboys have scored 114 points through 4 weeks; the Jets have allowed at least 27 in all 4 of their outings — including 34 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are by no means as dynamic on offense as the Cowboys. This is not a good spot for Glenn’s struggling defense with less than a full week of preparation to face one of the best offenses in football. The reality is that Dallas could get somewhat close to this number by itself, so my Cowboys vs Jets pick is Over 46.5.
CeeDee Lamb being sidelined obviously doesn’t help, but new Cowboys receiver George Pickens is picking up the slack. The Georgia product has already racked up 300 yards this season and he has scored 4 touchdowns in the past 3 games. For the Jets, Justin Fields is actually playing solid football despite his team’s record. In 3 games (2 starts), Fields has accounted for 5 touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 passing) while turning the ball over just once with a fumble against Miami. Garrett Wilson has 16 catches on 21 targets in the past 2 outings and has scored 3 TDs in 2025. Getting him involved has been crucial for New York, and that should happen again this week against a very generous Cowboys defense.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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Not exactly a marquee matchup here in Week 5 as the Miami Dolphins take on the Carolina Panthers, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities for value. It’s the first game for Miami since Tyreek Hill’s devastating knee injury, and while they’d certainly rather have Hill out there, I still like them in this spot. The Panthers are just completely lifeless at the moment and already look checked out.
Outside of one win against a Falcons team that Bryce Young has randomly always had success against, Carolina has looked absolutely awful. Last week things boiled over in an ugly 42-13 loss to the Patriots, and it’s clear to me at this point that Young is never going to be their franchise QB. There was a lot of talk last year about Young’s improvement, but he was never actually any good. People were just comparing him to his rookie year, but it wouldn’t have been possible for things to be any worse than that. This year he’s averaging a pitiful 5.2 yards per attempt, and the ground game is averaging less than 4 yards per attempt, and Chuba Hubbard is banged up with a calf injury that had him out of practice on Thursday.
Miami started 0-3, but those three losses were on the road to very good Colts and Bills teams, and a very close one to the Patriots. The Dolphins finally picked up their first win of the season this past week against the Jets, and De’Von Achane broke out with by far his most rushing yards of the year. If they can get him going again here, they should win this one easily.
Dolphins -1 at publishing.
I also think the under makes some sense here, because this Panthers offense can’t get anything going against anybody besides the Falcons. Bryce Young is averaging a ridiculously low 5.2 yards per attempt, and they’re relying on a rookie to lead them in receiving. They’re not just relying on Tetairoa McMillan to lead them in receiving, he’s pretty much their only receiving option. McMillan has 279 yards, and nobody else on the team has any more than 99. And the ground game has also been anemic.
The Dolphins on the other hand are going to be playing their first game without Tyreek Hill, greatly lowering the ceiling of their offense. Given that De’Von Achane finally got going last week and they’re big favorites here, I’d expect Mike McDaniel to keep things on the ground as much as possible which will keep the clock churning. Even in Carolina’s big win over the Falcons they still only had 224 yards of total offense, and only really scored because of Atlanta turnovers.
Under 44.5 at publishing.
A pair of 3-1 clubs hook up in the most intriguing game of the late afternoon slate in Seattle as the Seahawks host the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won its first 2 road games of the season at Atlanta and Houston, as the Bucs seek victories in their first 3 away contests since 2010. The Bucs are coming off their first loss of the season, falling behind early in a 31-25 defeat to the Eagles. After blowing out Philadelphia at home in each of the past 2 matchups, Tampa Bay trailed 24-3 in the 2nd quarter before cutting the deficit to eight in the 4th quarter. The Bucs held the defending champions to 200 yards of offense, but a pair of turnovers and allowing a blocked punt for a touchdown did Tampa Bay in.
Now, Todd Bowles’ team heads across the country to face Seattle, which is seeking a 4th straight victory after losing the season opener to San Francisco. The Seahawks built a 20-6 lead at Arizona last Thursday night before Arizona rallied to tie the game at 20-20. Jason Myers booted the game-winning field goal for Seattle in the final seconds to give the Seahawks their 8th straight road victory. Playing at Lumen Field in front of the vaunted “12th Man” seemed to be a losing proposition for opponents visiting the Pacific Northwest. That has swung recently, as the Seahawks are 2-7 in their last 9 home games, but one of those victories came 2 weeks ago in a 44-13 rout of the winless Saints. QB Sam Darnold has been impressive in his first season in Seattle, completing 70% of his passes and posting 9.1 yards per attempt, which is tied for 1st in the NFL with Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.
The Bucs’ RB Bucky Irving is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If he can’t suit up, Tampa Bay will turn to either Rachaad White or Sean Tucker in the backfield. White has posted 108 rushing yards this season, although he has been held to 17 or fewer yards in 3 of 4 games. Tampa Bay is riding an impressive 10-3 road record since the midway point of the 2023 season. In spite of the Bucs missing WR Mike Evans and potentially Irving, I still believe they have an opportunity here to grab the road victory as an underdog, but believe the safer play will be to take the field goal as extra insurance.
Buccaneers vs Seahawks prediction: Bucs +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.
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Seattle has done an excellent job on the defensive side of the ball through 4 games. The Seahawks have allowed 20 or fewer points in each game and gave up 6 points to Arizona through 3.5 quarters before the Cardinals scored a pair of late TDs last Thursday. At home, Seattle has yielded a total of 30 points to San Francisco and New Orleans, while intercepting 3 passes. On the season, the Seahawks have cashed 2 overs and 2 unders. In the 2 overs, Seattle has scored 31 and 44 points; in the 2 unders, the Seahawks have put up 23 points or fewer.
Tampa Bay cashed the under in each of its first 2 road games, but the Bucs hit the over the last 2 weeks against the Jets and Eagles at home. The Bucs allowed an average of 19.5 points per game in the 2 road contests at Atlanta and Houston. However, Tampa Bay gave up 58 points the last 2 weeks, which includes yielding a blocked field goal and a blocked punt for a score.
Recent head-to-head history won’t come into play on Sunday as the teams last hooked up in Germany in 2022 with the Bucs holding off the Seahawks 21-16. If you remember, Tom Brady defeated Geno Smith in that low-scoring affair, so that won’t affect any handicapping for Sunday’s battle.
Since allowing Falcons’ QB Michael Penix, Jr. to throw for 298 yards in the opener, the Bucs have not given up more than 207 passing yards in any of the last 3 games. Seattle’s Sam Darnold ranks 13th in the NFL with 905 passing yards and has posted 150 and 218 passing yards in their two home games. WR Mike Evans is sidelined once again with a hamstring injury, but Tampa Bay is 4-0 to the over in 4 games without him since 2024. I don’t believe that streak will continue here and both teams will likely finish in the low 20s on Sunday.
Bucs vs Seahawks prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.
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The Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to bounce back from a surprising loss to the New York Giants when they entertain the Washington Commanders in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon, and my Commanders vs Chargers pick is on the home team to win and cover. It has otherwise been a solid start to the 2025 campaign for Los Angeles, which had been 3-0 prior to last weekend’s setback. Defense has been a big reason for the Chargers’ success; they are third in total defense, fifth in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team really had no business losing to the Giants, either. New York averaged an anemic 3.6 yards per play and still managed to win even though L.A. averaged 6.0 yards per play. The Bolts were undone by 2 turnovers (the Giants committed none) and a ridiculous 14 penalties for 107 yards.
There is no reason to think that a Harbaugh-coached club will make those errors 2 weeks in a row. Assuming the Charger don’t, they should be able to take care of the Commanders. Jayden Daniels is back after missing 2 games due to a knee injury; that’s good news for the visitors, obviously, but Daniels has not played since September 11. It remains to be seen if he is rusty and/or less than 100 percent; even if he is good to go, the LSU product has to face one of the best defenses in football. Wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are out, while Deebo Samuel is questionable. All in all, this sets up very well for the home side.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Chargers -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Daniels my be back on the field, but I don’t have much confidence in him to go crazy when he is coming off a 2-week injury absence, has to go up against the Chargers’ defense and is missing at least 2 of his primary pass-catchers and maybe 3. Running back Austin Ekeler is already out for the season with a torn Achilles’ so this is a depleted offense even with Daniels once again under center. That is a big reason why my Commanders vs Chargers pick is Under 47.5.
Los Angeles hasn’t exactly set the world on fire so far, either. Justin Herbert and company have not yet produced more than 27 points in any contest and in their last 3 outings they have scored between 18 and 23 points. That is decent but unspectacular stuff. Moreover, the offensive line is banged up with left tackle Joe Alt unlikely to play on Sunday and Mekhi Becton questionable. Running back Najee Harris is on injured reserve, so the backfield belongs entirely to Omarion Hampton. All things considered, a total of 47.5 is a little bit too big for this matchup.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Under 47.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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The majority of the football world probably hates to hear it, but last Sunday the Chiefs looked like the same, championship-calibre program that’s gone to the Super Bowl 5 times in the past 8 seasons. At home against a fellow championship contender, the Chiefs annihilated the Ravens in their most complete game of their young campaign. The return of Xavier Worthy stretched Baltimore‘s defense, aiding Patrick Mahomes’ ability to distribute the ball and dominate through the air like only he can. The former 2-time MVP completed 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Eventually, Baltimore produced more yardage in garbage time, but Kansas City dominated, taking a 30-13 lead into the 4th quarter. It was a sign that the Chiefs, who are healthy and now only awaiting the return of Rashee Rice, are as dangerous as they’ve ever been.
The Jags impressed in Week 4, too. In perhaps their biggest win of the last 2 seasons, Jacksonville journeyed to the Pacific Northwest, a time zone where they’re historically 2-13 straight up, and outmatched the 49ers. Gaining 151 yards on the ground and forcing 4 turnovers, the Jaguars were balanced and effective in their trip, proving that new coach Liam Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile are transforming the franchise in a positive direction. Through 4 weeks, the Jaguars rank as a top-5 defense and top-10 rushing attack, although their passing game and Trevor Lawrence, who continues to make boneheaded plays in every game, still leaves much to be desired. Lawrence is 31st in pass completion percentage (58.33%) and 26th in yards per pass (5.9).
Will the real Chiefs please stand up? We believe they just did. Historically, Mahomes and the Chiefs are not very good as favorites over the past 2 seasons, going just 17-17-1 against the spread. But they’re also rarely a small favorite, even on the road, and while Jacksonville has played well, we must consider their opponents. They beat the Panthers, the Bengals without Joe Burrow for 2 quarters and lost, the Texans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and a banged-up San Francisco roster. The Chiefs in their current form are a different beast.
Chiefs vs Jags prediction: Chiefs -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.
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Despite 2 defenses that have outperformed their offensive counterparts, the number in this Monday Night Football contest is moving up. Some of that undoubtedly has to do with the renaissance of both offenses in Week 4, another case of the market responding to what feels like a week-to-week league. Kansas City made a 37-point scoreboard look easy, dominating the Ravens’ defense and exposing holes in their secondary throughout the battle. Even on the ground, they managed to accumulate 118 yards, a better result than usual. Against the Jaguars, we doubt those figures will improve, since the home team only permits 82.8 rush yards per game (4th overall). The question is: will that matter?
Mahomes creates magic on a weekly basis, and if the Kansas City pass-game is efficient, even a subpar ground attack might not limit the success of their drives. Usually, Mahomes and company are surgical at converting 3rd downs and turning red-zone visits into touchdowns, but that hasn’t been the case this season. In Week 4, they were effective enough (5-15 on 3rd down), particularly in the red zone (4-6 TD rate). The previous 3 weeks bring down their statistics, but the market clearly thinks Week 4 was a clearer representation of what the Chiefs can bring to the table from now on, even if it was against an ailing Baltimore defense.
The bigger question is Jacksonville’s offense, which we have less faith in. Trevor Lawrence’s mediocre quarterback play (a 49 QBR, ranked 21st) has been inconsistent and disappointing, and the Chiefs’ defense plays far better when their offense stays on the field. Kansas City also has one of the NFL’s premier defensive minds, Steve Spagnuolo, who can exacerbate Lawrence’s poor tendencies. The market seems to think both teams will get into the 20s; we have our doubts.
Chiefs vs Jaguars pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.
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By the time Week 14 rolls around, #1 overall Cam Ward should have found his footing in the NFL. That’s not to say Tennessee’s offense will be a well-oiled machine at this point, but it should at least resemble something respectable. As for the 49ers, they seem to be a team on the decline. This franchise might be tempted to blow it all up sooner rather than later, and this late in the 2025 campaign it could be time to tank for a high draft pick. There’s no way I’m giving the Titans more than a touchdown.
The Philadelphia Eagles will be looking to remain undefeated when they host the Denver Broncos in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia (4-0) has kicked off its Super Bowl title defense with victories over Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams and Tampa Bay. Given that the Eagles are not only the superior team but also playing at the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field, my Broncos vs Eagles pick is on the home team to win and cover. Philadelphia is on a 10-game winning streak dating back to last season and it is 16-1 SU in its last 17 overall. It is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 and 13-4 ATS in its last 17. Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 4, 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 and 0-2 ATS in its last 2 head-to-head with Philly.
Denver is winless on the road this season. In fact, its only wins have come at home against lowly opponents in the Titans and Bengals. In his 2nd year as a pro, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has already been picked off 4 times. The visitors now run into an Eagles defense that has 5 takeaways (3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries). These 2 teams have squared off just twice in the past decade; Philadelphia is 2-0 with a 51-23 blowout in 2017 and a 30-13 success in 2021. This one probably won’t be quite that lopsided, but let’s back the Birds to prevail by the necessary margin.
Broncos vs Eagles prediction: Eagles -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.
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Even though AJ Brown has done next to nothing this season, Philadelphia has scored plenty of points. Head coach Nick Sirianni’s team has not yet been held under the 20-point mark and it has exceeded 30 points in each of the past 2 outings. As such, my Broncos vs Eagles pick is Over 43.5. Brown is griping about his lack of production, too, so you have to think QB Jalen Hurts is going to make an extra effort to get the veteran wideout involved on Sunday. Even if that doesn’t happen, Saquon Barkley can pick up the slack in both the running and passing game. Barkley has made at least 4 receptions in 3 of the 4 games and Denver has allowed 169 receiving yards to opposing running backs.
As for the Broncos offense, running back J.K. Dobbins has stepped up amidst Nix’s relative lack of production. Dobbins has cemented himself as RB1 in Denver with 57 carries for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns. In all 4 contests so far, the former Ohio State standout has either scored a touchdown or surpassed the 100-yard mark. Meanwhile, Philly has surrendered at least 25 points in each of its last 2 games. This has all the makings of a high-scoring clash, so this number feels too low.
Broncos vs Eagles prediction: Over 43.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.
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The New York Giants finally broke through the win column in Week 4, sending the Los Angeles Chargers to their first loss, 21-18, at MetLife Stadium. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart led the way in his first NFL start, throwing a TD pass and running for another score, although he sustained a hamstring injury. It wasn’t all great news for the Giants, who lost top wide receiver Malik Nabers for the season with a torn ACL. New York travels to New Orleans to face the 0-4 Saints, who almost pulled off the biggest upset of the season.
Following a 31-point beatdown in Seattle, the Saints trailed the Bills 21-19 with less than 8 minutes remaining in regulation. Buffalo scored the final 10 points to beat New Orleans, 31-19, although the Saints grabbed the cover as 14.5-point road underdogs. The Saints, who used to be nearly unbeatable at Caesars Superdome, have lost their last 5 home contests, including the first 2 this season to Arizona and San Francisco. Saints’ QB Spencer Rattler is still seeking his first victory as an NFL starter, but has shown some upside of late. Rattler has been intercepted once this season, while throwing 5 TDs in the last 3 games. He has not eclipsed 218 passing yards in a game as he faces a Giants’ pass defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed through the air.
The Saints held off the Giants last season at MetLife, winning 14-11 as 5.5-point road favorites. Both starting QBs for that game are no longer on these rosters, as Derek Carr outdueled Drew Lock in that low-scoring affair. Considering Dart is not 100% and the G-Men must now continue without their star wideout, we should see the first victory of the season for the Saints on Sunday.
Giants vs Saints prediction: Saints -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.
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New York ranks 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 388.5. Yet, the Giants are 3-1 to the Under this season, due to the fact that they were limited to 9 or less points in a pair of losses. The Giants scored 21 points in Jaxson Dart’s first NFL start, which included a 15-yard TD run by the rookie. Although New York put up 21 points in that game, the G-Men scored 2 TDs and kicked 2 FGs to go along with a 2-point conversion. It marked the 3rd time in 4 games that the Giants were held to fewer than 2 TDs.
The Saints have yet to eclipse the 21-point mark this season, posting 19 points in Sunday’s loss at Buffalo. New Orleans’ defense has performed better at the Superdome, yielding an average of 23 points per game compared to 37.5 points per game on the road. Since cashing the Under in the season opener against the Cardinals, the Saints are on a 3-0 run to the Over in the last 3 games. New Orleans saw its highest total of the season at Buffalo at 49 and the game barely hit the Over as the Bills won, 31-19.
In 5 of the last 6 home games, the Saints have scored fewer than 21 points. In New York’s lone road contest this season at Dallas, the Over was never in doubt as the Cowboys outlasted the Giants, 40-37 in overtime on a 44.5 total. The total is sitting between 40.5 and 41 across most major sportsbooks. This is the lowest total for either team this season, as the Saints and Giants combined for 25 points in their matchup last December at MetLife. It’s hard to see where the offense comes from, especially with Malik Nabers sidelined for New York with a season-ending knee injury, so I still don’t think this number is low enough. With that in mind, I’m leaning towards the Under in this one.
Giants vs Saints pick: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.
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Heading into Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season, only 3 teams have not picked up a win. Both the Jets and Saints return home at 0-4, while the Titans try to get their first victory on the road with a trip to Arizona on Sunday. Tennessee has not scored a touchdown in 2 road losses at Denver and Houston. In last week’s 26-0 shutout defeat to the Texans, the Titans trailed 6-0 headed to the 4th quarter before Houston outscored Tennessee 20-0 in the final 15 minutes. Tennessee’s offense mustered 155 yards, while top NFL draft pick Cam Ward has busted 175 passing yards once in four games.
Arizona jumped out to a 2-0 start with victories over New Orleans and Carolina, who are a combined 1-7. The 2 losses for the Cardinals came on the final play of the game to a pair of division rivals, San Francisco and Seattle. The Cardinals are the only team in the NFC West with multiple division losses, but can still jump above .500 by beating the Titans. Arizona fell in a 20-6 hole last Thursday night against Seattle before rallying with a pair of TDs in the final six minutes to tie the game at 20-20. Following a poor kickoff, the Seahawks were able to drive into field goal range and kick the game-winner, condemning the Cardinals to their 5th division loss in the last 6 tries.
Since the start of the 2024 season, the Titans have stumbled to a disastrous 3-19 ATS record, but all 3 covers came on the road. Tennessee is 1 of 2 teams in the NFL averaging less than 210.5 yards a game. The only team worse is the Bengals, who are compiling 205.3 yards a game. The Cardinals put together a 4-1 record against AFC foes last season, including a pair of double-digit victories at home against the Jets and Patriots. I’m expecting them to bounce back from last week’s disappointment and to smoothly dismantle the Titans following extended prep time.
Titans vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
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It’s no surprise that this total sits at 41.5, considering Tennessee’s inept offense through 4 games. Breaking it down to the core, the Titans have scored a total of 3 TDs this season. Two of those trips to the end zone came on 2 separate occasions against Indianapolis in Week 3 when trailing by 21 points. Tennessee failed to light up the scoreboard in last Sunday’s 26-0 loss at Houston, marking the 2nd Under in 2 road games. In both contests played in Nashville against the Rams and Colts, the Over cashed easily.
The Cardinals have gone Under the total in 3 of 4 games, but have not seen a total this low. In the 3 games that finished Under, the total closed between 44 and 44.5. Arizona slowed down Seattle last Thursday, holding the Seahawks to 23 points after a pair of wins scoring 31 and 44 points. Something has to give here as both teams rank in the bottom 5 of the NFL in yards per game, but each club sits in the bottom 10 of the league in yards allowed per game.
Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray has yet to throw for more than 220 yards in a game this season, as he posted 200 passing yards on 27 completions in the loss to Seattle. In 3 of 4 games this season, the Titans have limited opposing QBs to throw for 233 yards or less. In the last 3 games, Arizona’s pass defense has yielded 328 passing yards to Carolina’s Bryce Young, 284 yards to San Francisco’s Mac Jones and 242 yards to Seattle’s Sam Darnold. However, 133 of those yards from Young came in the 4th quarter with Carolina trailing, 27-9. It’s hard to make a convincing argument for a high-scoring game, especially with Tennessee racking up 12 total points in 2 road losses.
Titans vs Cardinals pick: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.
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The Bills had a little scare against the Saints at home, but eventually, the inevitable happened. Buffalo ran away with a 2-score lead in the 4th quarter, and they still outpaced the Saints in total yards (356 to 298) and yards per play (6.2 to 4.6). Josh Allen had an uncharacteristic interception, but ultimately it was a clean, if not underwhelming, operation by Buffalo. For elite teams, it isn’t always pretty (just ask Philadelphia), but Josh Allen and his teammates know how to answer when they need to. So far, no opponent has been formidable enough to stop them.
The Patriots are off a week where the NFL media is singing their praises. Undoubtedly motivated by the news of defensive coordinator Terrell Williams stepping away to battle cancer, they ensured a dominant win at home in Week 4. Following a kick-off return for a touchdown, New England’s offensive line bullied Carolina’s defense in the run-game and let loose from there, taking advantage of a myriad of special teams mistakes by the visiting team. Suddenly, the Panthers’ offense stuttered, too, succumbing to a predictable pass-first approach that New England sniffed out.
We’re also hearing much praise for Drake Maye after Week 4, which he somewhat deserves, but an adequate game against one of the worst teams in the NFL is not a reason to fall in love with a quarterback (with Bryce Young at QB, the Panthers are 1-17 on the road). Drake Maye has shown growth and signs of a true franchise quarterback, but in Weeks 1-3, the Patriots’ offense was only scoring 16.7 points per game. They have their issues. Not to mention, while they put up 41 points in Week 4, nearly every scoring drive was set up with a sensational punt return; Maye wasn’t slicing and dicing the Panthers’ defense (breaking news: he only had 17 pass attempts).
The Bills have been playing with their food, but this is still a fantastic spot for them at home before they go to Atlanta on Monday Night Football in Week 6. The same cannot be said for the Patriots, who start a 3-game road trip at Orchard Park. It’s a big spread, but the Bills should have several opportunities to pull away.
Patriots vs Bills prediction: Bills -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
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In Drake Maye’s first start at Orchard Park last season, he looked the part, going 22-36 for 261 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Patriots actually out-gained the Bills on that day, totaling 379 yards and 28 first downs. New England’s offense doesn’t seem capable of putting up those kinds of numbers every week just yet, but perhaps a familiar opponent like Buffalo will help do the trick. Buffalo’s defense is good, but we’ve also seen them fold against a few offenses. Even last week, they couldn’t stop the Saints on a myriad of drives. It remains to be seen if stars Ed Oliver and Matt Milano will return in Week 5, but right now the Bills’ resistance isn’t very stout (17th in points per game allowed, 22.5).
Of course, regardless of what the Bills’ defense can or can’t do, the offense still has Josh Allen. On paper, it looks as if the Patriots run defense is very good, top-5 in multiple categories, but the strength of schedule matters. Through the first 4 weeks, New England has faced some of the worst ground operations in the NFL. The combination of James Cook and Allen, on the other hand, is lethal, one that no defense has been able to slow down so far. They lead the NFL with 163.5 rushing yards per game. In pass defense, the Patriots have been lackluster, ranking 29th in opponent completion percentage and 26th in opponent pass yards per game. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez returned last week, but the Patriots’ woes are more than a 1-player issue. And Allen is no ordinary quarterback. Buffalo, New York is forecasted to be 76 degrees, and we project plus-matchups for both offenses.
Patriots vs Bills best bet: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.
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I’m not a believer in the Broncos. Even if you are a believer, 2.5 points still isn’t enough in this Sunday Night Football showdown. The Commanders are in Washington for this one and teams generally get a 3-point bonus at home, so that means the oddsmakers rate the Broncos as on par or even as the superior of the 2 teams. That’s a no from me, dawg. Jayden Daniels is a much more dynamic quarterback than Bo Nix (and compared to almost everyone), plus he is armed with a better supporting cast. As of right now, this is by far my favorite bet of the season.
The 49ers and Rams are at the top of the NFC West, 2 perennial elites that once again appear on a collision course. Despite their 3-1 records, they don’t feel like similar programs right now. San Francisco is coming off a bad loss where they turned it over 4 times against the upstart Jaguars, who were a 3.5-point underdog. Furthermore, the 49ers’ rushing attack continues to be pedestrian, gaining just 88 rush yards per game (28th). Mac Jones will be in command for the 49ers after Brock Purdy was ruled out, and will lead a talented group that’s top-5 in total offense, although they have been slow to capitalize and score points (20 ppg, ranked 22nd). Their defense is likely playing over its head at this point, with injuries mounting and offenses starting to figure out their holes. The 2025 49ers are starting to run into the same problems that affected their 2024 campaign, which is a cause for concern.
Historically, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have done well in this series (11-6 against McVay), but the Rams are a different animal this season. Indianapolis gave away some points in their Week 4 battle, but the home team also took advantage of Indy’s mistakes. Additionally, Matthew Stafford’s connection with Puka Nacua proved elite once again (13 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown). It was an impressive response after blowing a sure win in Philadelphia last Sunday, arguably a champion’s response. On both sides, the Rams seemingly have the talent and firepower to keep up with any team in the NFL, and by playing mistake-free football, they proved too much for their previously undefeated visitors last Sunday.
While Shanahan has typically found success against the Rams, this checks out as a nice opportunity for the 49ers’ regression. The question is, how good are the Rams? And how different is the matchup at this juncture? Based on our power ratings, the Rams are clearly the better team, and they should be able to secure a statement win on TNF to take control of the NFC West.
49ers vs Rams prediction: Rams -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.
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In Week 4, it was San Francisco’s offense that really put the team in a tough position. Brock Purdy’s uncharacteristic turnovers crushed drives and the Niners were just 1-3 in the red zone. San Francisco still managed to out-gain the Jaguars in nearly every category, earning 22 first downs and 389 total yards in a loss. The same issues that hurt San Francisco last season are starting to creep up, including struggles in the red zone (they’re 27th in red zone touchdown rate) and a rushing attack that leaves much to be desired (3.3 yards per rush, 31st). In general, their offensive line just hasn’t been as dominant, anchored by an aging Trent Williams and struggling youth. Still, in every game, the 49ers manage to produce. They’re top-5 in total yards per game (368), and after their poor performance against Jacksonville, we anticipate positive regression. Brock Purdy being ruled out could have an impact, although I don’t think there is too much between him and Mac Jones, and Jones threw 3 touchdown passes against the Saints in his other start this season.
On the other side, we would be surprised if the Rams didn’t score at will. The 49ers’ defense has held up despite injuries and many losses in free agency, but last week they showed too many holes against a mediocre Jacksonville offense, one that managed to gain 151 yards on the ground. Matthew Stafford is very dangerous when the Rams’ ground attack is prolific, a scenario we have yet to see this season (LAR ranks 13th in rush yards per game, averaging 120.8). Stafford also has a group of elite wide receivers that can test a 49ers defense that’s top-3 in yards per pass allowed but 25th in opponent completion percentage. Puka Nacua has been particularly unguardable, leading the NFL in receptions (42) and receiving yards (503). Having Davante Adams on the other side is simply unfair, a big reason why the Rams are 4th overall in total offense, averaging 388.3 yards per game. Thursday Night Football should be a fun watch.
49ers vs Rams best bet: Over 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.
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Puka Nacua is playing like the #1 wide receiver in football, yet newcomer Davante Adams is dominating the red area for the Rams. He’s logging a mind-blowing 71.4% target share in the red zone — 2nd in the NFL behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. With those metrics, Adams’ touchdown odds have fallen to +125, but we’re still going to fire off on Adams scoring finding the end zone against a 49ers defense decimated with injuries. At plus-money odds, I believe this prop still has value.
For our 2nd 49ers vs Rams TD scorer bet, we’re sticking with the Rams offense and backing running back Blake Corum. Starter Kyren Williams is -200 to find the end zone on Thursday Night Football — certainly not a price I’m willing to back. On a short week, Blake Corum should see more opportunities than we’ve seen in the past in Sean McVay’s offense. His rushing attempts prop has yet to be released on major books, so we’ll read into his anytime touchdown prop at +325 — down to +275 with sharper books. Many expect the Rams offense to fire on all cylinders. If that’s the case, Corum should see an uptick in volume.
This line comes on the back of a dominant Kyren Williams performance in Week 4 where the Rams took down the Indianapolis Colts in a shootout; Williams took 2 carries on the last series to get him to 13. He’s gone over this line in 2 of 4 games this season (3 of 4 at 16.5), but what I noticed last week is McVay’s insistence on getting Corum entrenched into the rotation. He’s on record stating he wants a 65/35 split and after the Colts win, he doubled down stating he will not ride the hot hand since the team is at its best when both backs are involved.
Corum has seen his snaps grow in each of the last 3 weeks, and in order for the 49ers to have a shot at the upset, they will need to control the clock and keep Stafford & company on the sidelines. This number is just too high for me given Corum’s cemented role and the fact that Williams is coming off his lowest snap count of the season. San Francisco ranks 31st in pressure rate through 4 weeks of the season, which should give McVay more reason to utilize the passing game to make a statement in primetime.
Los Angeles Rams -7 over San Francisco 49ers (-105)
Even though both teams are 3-1 heading into this game, they certainly feel like they’re going in different directions. After all, the 49ers just turned the ball over a whopping 4 times in a loss to the Jaguars, and the San Francisco offense has been ravaged by injuries to its wide receiving corps and offensive line, to say nothing of Brock Purdy’s injury that sidelined him for a few weeks and certainly could have affected his play last Sunday. Therefore, even though Kyle Shanahan has historically had success against the Rams, Sean McVay’s team is much healthier at the moment and the Rams are playing better on both sides of the ball heading into this one.
It’s certainly on the board that Los Angeles is just 1 play away from being 4-0. In fact, if not for a game against the Eagles, where the Rams blew a 19-point lead in the 2nd half, this would be a team most experts would have pegged as a Super Bowl contender. The Los Angeles offense is easily a top-10 unit in the sport at the moment, with Matthew Stafford in complete command and looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He certainly has the weapons to throw to, as the dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are proving to be very difficult to contain on the outside. As long as the Rams continue to play mistake-free football, they should be in a good position to win and cover the number against the banged-up 49ers.
Over 45 (-108)
Regardless of which team covers the spread in Thursday’s game, this matchup should be a high-scoring affair. Despite their solid start to the campaign, the 49ers’ defense has been compromised due to the rash of injuries on that unit, and it doesn’t help matters that they’ll finally be facing an offense that can do real damage in all phases of the game. Los Angeles is a formidable opponent, averaging nearly 400 yards per game, while sitting inside the top 10 in EPA per pass and EPA per play, per SumerSports.
On the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy is once again ruled out for San Francisco which means Mac Jones will be back under center. While the 49ers have been inconsistent in the passing game to this point, Jones did have some success against the Saints a couple of weeks ago, can they they still should be able to lean on Christian McCaffrey to produce against a Rams defense that is much weaker against the run (18th in EPA per rush allowed) than against the pass. Let’s take the Over in this NFC West showdown.
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown scorer (+100)
He might not be the flashiest player to watch, but Puka Nacua has arguably been the best wide receiver in the game over the first month of the season. The BYU product should be in a good position to succeed once again on Thursday, especially considering the matchup. Nacua has been unguardable to this point, as he led the NFL in receptions (42) and receiving yards (503) in September.
The 3rd-year wideout is clearly Stafford’s favorite target within this offense, and he should flourish against a 49ers defense that has faced Jacksonville, New Orleans and Arizona in recent weeks; not exactly the most threatening of passing offenses. This is a massive step-up in class for San Francisco’s banged-up defense, and Nacua should find the end zone as a result.
The New York Jets are still in search of their first victory in this 2025 NFL season as they head into a home game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5 on Sunday afternoon. Mainly because of how New York has looked so far, my Cowboys vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. It’s hard to even describe how bad the Jets were on Monday night against the Miami Dolphins. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad committed a ridiculous 13 penalties for 101 yards and turned the ball over 3 times (all 3 with fumbles). It was a comedy of errors against an opponent that was also winless going into Week 4.
Now the Jets have to face a much tougher opponent and they are playing on a short week. Yes, they have home-field advantage — but it’s not like the Jets have been good even in East Rutherford and the Cowboys have actually been better on the road than they have been in Dallas for the most part in recent seasons. This sets up very well for the ‘Boys, who are coming off an impressive 40-40 tie against the high-powered Green Bay Packers last weekend. Dallas may not play much defense with Micah Parsons no longer roaming the field for them, but Dak Prescott is performing at an MVP level so far this year. Prescott has thrown for 1,119 yards and 6 touchdowns; Dallas has already reached the 40-point mark twice in 2025. In Week 5, the Cowboys meet an opponent that has not forced a single turnover this entire season. I don’t think the Jets can keep up in a track meet.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets prediction: Cowboys -2.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Cowboys have scored 114 points through 4 weeks; the Jets have allowed at least 27 in all 4 of their outings — including 34 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are by no means as dynamic on offense as the Cowboys. This is not a good spot for Glenn’s struggling defense with less than a full week of preparation to face one of the best offenses in football. The reality is that Dallas could get somewhat close to this number by itself, so my Cowboys vs Jets pick is Over 46.5.
CeeDee Lamb being sidelined obviously doesn’t help, but new Cowboys receiver George Pickens is picking up the slack. The Georgia product has already racked up 300 yards this season and he has scored 4 touchdowns in the past 3 games. For the Jets, Justin Fields is actually playing solid football despite his team’s record. In 3 games (2 starts), Fields has accounted for 5 touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 passing) while turning the ball over just once with a fumble against Miami. Garrett Wilson has 16 catches on 21 targets in the past 2 outings and has scored 3 TDs in 2025. Getting him involved has been crucial for New York, and that should happen again this week against a very generous Cowboys defense.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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The Philadelphia Eagles will be looking to remain undefeated when they host the Denver Broncos in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia (4-0) has kicked off its Super Bowl title defense with victories over Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams and Tampa Bay. Given that the Eagles are not only the superior team but also playing at the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field, my Broncos vs Eagles pick is on the home team to win and cover. Philadelphia is on a 10-game winning streak dating back to last season and it is 16-1 SU in its last 17 overall. It is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 and 13-4 ATS in its last 17. Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 4, 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 and 0-2 ATS in its last 2 head-to-head with Philly.
Denver is winless on the road this season. In fact, its only wins have come at home against lowly opponents in the Titans and Bengals. In his 2nd year as a pro, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has already been picked off 4 times. The visitors now run into an Eagles defense that has 5 takeaways (3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries). These 2 teams have squared off just twice in the past decade; Philadelphia is 2-0 with a 51-23 blowout in 2017 and a 30-13 success in 2021. This one probably won’t be quite that lopsided, but let’s back the Birds to prevail by the necessary margin.
Broncos vs Eagles prediction: Eagles -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.
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Even though AJ Brown has done next to nothing this season, Philadelphia has scored plenty of points. Head coach Nick Sirianni’s team has not yet been held under the 20-point mark and it has exceeded 30 points in each of the past 2 outings. As such, my Broncos vs Eagles pick is Over 43.5. Brown is griping about his lack of production, too, so you have to think QB Jalen Hurts is going to make an extra effort to get the veteran wideout involved on Sunday. Even if that doesn’t happen, Saquon Barkley can pick up the slack in both the running and passing game. Barkley has made at least 4 receptions in 3 of the 4 games and Denver has allowed 169 receiving yards to opposing running backs.
As for the Broncos offense, running back J.K. Dobbins has stepped up amidst Nix’s relative lack of production. Dobbins has cemented himself as RB1 in Denver with 57 carries for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns. In all 4 contests so far, the former Ohio State standout has either scored a touchdown or surpassed the 100-yard mark. Meanwhile, Philly has surrendered at least 25 points in each of its last 2 games. This has all the makings of a high-scoring clash, so this number feels too low.
Broncos vs Eagles prediction: Over 43.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.
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Not exactly a marquee matchup here in Week 5 as the Miami Dolphins take on the Carolina Panthers, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities for value. It’s the first game for Miami since Tyreek Hill’s devastating knee injury, and while they’d certainly rather have Hill out there, I still like them in this spot. The Panthers are just completely lifeless at the moment and already look checked out.
Outside of one win against a Falcons team that Bryce Young has randomly always had success against, Carolina has looked absolutely awful. Last week things boiled over in an ugly 42-13 loss to the Patriots, and it’s clear to me at this point that Young is never going to be their franchise QB. There was a lot of talk last year about Young’s improvement, but he was never actually any good. People were just comparing him to his rookie year, but it wouldn’t have been possible for things to be any worse than that. This year he’s averaging a pitiful 5.2 yards per attempt, and the ground game is averaging less than 4 yards per attempt, and Chuba Hubbard is banged up with a calf injury that had him out of practice on Thursday.
Miami started 0-3, but those three losses were on the road to very good Colts and Bills teams, and a very close one to the Patriots. The Dolphins finally picked up their first win of the season this past week against the Jets, and De’Von Achane broke out with by far his most rushing yards of the year. If they can get him going again here, they should win this one easily.
Dolphins -1 at publishing.
I also think the under makes some sense here, because this Panthers offense can’t get anything going against anybody besides the Falcons. Bryce Young is averaging a ridiculously low 5.2 yards per attempt, and they’re relying on a rookie to lead them in receiving. They’re not just relying on Tetairoa McMillan to lead them in receiving, he’s pretty much their only receiving option. McMillan has 279 yards, and nobody else on the team has any more than 99. And the ground game has also been anemic.
The Dolphins on the other hand are going to be playing their first game without Tyreek Hill, greatly lowering the ceiling of their offense. Given that De’Von Achane finally got going last week and they’re big favorites here, I’d expect Mike McDaniel to keep things on the ground as much as possible which will keep the clock churning. Even in Carolina’s big win over the Falcons they still only had 224 yards of total offense, and only really scored because of Atlanta turnovers.
Under 44.5 at publishing.
The New York Giants finally broke through the win column in Week 4, sending the Los Angeles Chargers to their first loss, 21-18, at MetLife Stadium. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart led the way in his first NFL start, throwing a TD pass and running for another score, although he sustained a hamstring injury. It wasn’t all great news for the Giants, who lost top wide receiver Malik Nabers for the season with a torn ACL. New York travels to New Orleans to face the 0-4 Saints, who almost pulled off the biggest upset of the season.
Following a 31-point beatdown in Seattle, the Saints trailed the Bills 21-19 with less than 8 minutes remaining in regulation. Buffalo scored the final 10 points to beat New Orleans, 31-19, although the Saints grabbed the cover as 14.5-point road underdogs. The Saints, who used to be nearly unbeatable at Caesars Superdome, have lost their last 5 home contests, including the first 2 this season to Arizona and San Francisco. Saints’ QB Spencer Rattler is still seeking his first victory as an NFL starter, but has shown some upside of late. Rattler has been intercepted once this season, while throwing 5 TDs in the last 3 games. He has not eclipsed 218 passing yards in a game as he faces a Giants’ pass defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed through the air.
The Saints held off the Giants last season at MetLife, winning 14-11 as 5.5-point road favorites. Both starting QBs for that game are no longer on these rosters, as Derek Carr outdueled Drew Lock in that low-scoring affair. Considering Dart is not 100% and the G-Men must now continue without their star wideout, we should see the first victory of the season for the Saints on Sunday.
Giants vs Saints prediction: Saints -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.
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New York ranks 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 388.5. Yet, the Giants are 3-1 to the Under this season, due to the fact that they were limited to 9 or less points in a pair of losses. The Giants scored 21 points in Jaxson Dart’s first NFL start, which included a 15-yard TD run by the rookie. Although New York put up 21 points in that game, the G-Men scored 2 TDs and kicked 2 FGs to go along with a 2-point conversion. It marked the 3rd time in 4 games that the Giants were held to fewer than 2 TDs.
The Saints have yet to eclipse the 21-point mark this season, posting 19 points in Sunday’s loss at Buffalo. New Orleans’ defense has performed better at the Superdome, yielding an average of 23 points per game compared to 37.5 points per game on the road. Since cashing the Under in the season opener against the Cardinals, the Saints are on a 3-0 run to the Over in the last 3 games. New Orleans saw its highest total of the season at Buffalo at 49 and the game barely hit the Over as the Bills won, 31-19.
In 5 of the last 6 home games, the Saints have scored fewer than 21 points. In New York’s lone road contest this season at Dallas, the Over was never in doubt as the Cowboys outlasted the Giants, 40-37 in overtime on a 44.5 total. The total is sitting between 40.5 and 41 across most major sportsbooks. This is the lowest total for either team this season, as the Saints and Giants combined for 25 points in their matchup last December at MetLife. It’s hard to see where the offense comes from, especially with Malik Nabers sidelined for New York with a season-ending knee injury, so I still don’t think this number is low enough. With that in mind, I’m leaning towards the Under in this one.
Giants vs Saints pick: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.
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A pair of 3-1 clubs hook up in the most intriguing game of the late afternoon slate in Seattle as the Seahawks host the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won its first 2 road games of the season at Atlanta and Houston, as the Bucs seek victories in their first 3 away contests since 2010. The Bucs are coming off their first loss of the season, falling behind early in a 31-25 defeat to the Eagles. After blowing out Philadelphia at home in each of the past 2 matchups, Tampa Bay trailed 24-3 in the 2nd quarter before cutting the deficit to eight in the 4th quarter. The Bucs held the defending champions to 200 yards of offense, but a pair of turnovers and allowing a blocked punt for a touchdown did Tampa Bay in.
Now, Todd Bowles’ team heads across the country to face Seattle, which is seeking a 4th straight victory after losing the season opener to San Francisco. The Seahawks built a 20-6 lead at Arizona last Thursday night before Arizona rallied to tie the game at 20-20. Jason Myers booted the game-winning field goal for Seattle in the final seconds to give the Seahawks their 8th straight road victory. Playing at Lumen Field in front of the vaunted “12th Man” seemed to be a losing proposition for opponents visiting the Pacific Northwest. That has swung recently, as the Seahawks are 2-7 in their last 9 home games, but one of those victories came 2 weeks ago in a 44-13 rout of the winless Saints. QB Sam Darnold has been impressive in his first season in Seattle, completing 70% of his passes and posting 9.1 yards per attempt, which is tied for 1st in the NFL with Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.
The Bucs’ RB Bucky Irving is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If he can’t suit up, Tampa Bay will turn to either Rachaad White or Sean Tucker in the backfield. White has posted 108 rushing yards this season, although he has been held to 17 or fewer yards in 3 of 4 games. Tampa Bay is riding an impressive 10-3 road record since the midway point of the 2023 season. In spite of the Bucs missing WR Mike Evans and potentially Irving, I still believe they have an opportunity here to grab the road victory as an underdog, but believe the safer play will be to take the field goal as extra insurance.
Buccaneers vs Seahawks prediction: Bucs +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.
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Seattle has done an excellent job on the defensive side of the ball through 4 games. The Seahawks have allowed 20 or fewer points in each game and gave up 6 points to Arizona through 3.5 quarters before the Cardinals scored a pair of late TDs last Thursday. At home, Seattle has yielded a total of 30 points to San Francisco and New Orleans, while intercepting 3 passes. On the season, the Seahawks have cashed 2 overs and 2 unders. In the 2 overs, Seattle has scored 31 and 44 points; in the 2 unders, the Seahawks have put up 23 points or fewer.
Tampa Bay cashed the under in each of its first 2 road games, but the Bucs hit the over the last 2 weeks against the Jets and Eagles at home. The Bucs allowed an average of 19.5 points per game in the 2 road contests at Atlanta and Houston. However, Tampa Bay gave up 58 points the last 2 weeks, which includes yielding a blocked field goal and a blocked punt for a score.
Recent head-to-head history won’t come into play on Sunday as the teams last hooked up in Germany in 2022 with the Bucs holding off the Seahawks 21-16. If you remember, Tom Brady defeated Geno Smith in that low-scoring affair, so that won’t affect any handicapping for Sunday’s battle.
Since allowing Falcons’ QB Michael Penix, Jr. to throw for 298 yards in the opener, the Bucs have not given up more than 207 passing yards in any of the last 3 games. Seattle’s Sam Darnold ranks 13th in the NFL with 905 passing yards and has posted 150 and 218 passing yards in their two home games. WR Mike Evans is sidelined once again with a hamstring injury, but Tampa Bay is 4-0 to the over in 4 games without him since 2024. I don’t believe that streak will continue here and both teams will likely finish in the low 20s on Sunday.
Bucs vs Seahawks prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.
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Heading into Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season, only 3 teams have not picked up a win. Both the Jets and Saints return home at 0-4, while the Titans try to get their first victory on the road with a trip to Arizona on Sunday. Tennessee has not scored a touchdown in 2 road losses at Denver and Houston. In last week’s 26-0 shutout defeat to the Texans, the Titans trailed 6-0 headed to the 4th quarter before Houston outscored Tennessee 20-0 in the final 15 minutes. Tennessee’s offense mustered 155 yards, while top NFL draft pick Cam Ward has busted 175 passing yards once in four games.
Arizona jumped out to a 2-0 start with victories over New Orleans and Carolina, who are a combined 1-7. The 2 losses for the Cardinals came on the final play of the game to a pair of division rivals, San Francisco and Seattle. The Cardinals are the only team in the NFC West with multiple division losses, but can still jump above .500 by beating the Titans. Arizona fell in a 20-6 hole last Thursday night against Seattle before rallying with a pair of TDs in the final six minutes to tie the game at 20-20. Following a poor kickoff, the Seahawks were able to drive into field goal range and kick the game-winner, condemning the Cardinals to their 5th division loss in the last 6 tries.
Since the start of the 2024 season, the Titans have stumbled to a disastrous 3-19 ATS record, but all 3 covers came on the road. Tennessee is 1 of 2 teams in the NFL averaging less than 210.5 yards a game. The only team worse is the Bengals, who are compiling 205.3 yards a game. The Cardinals put together a 4-1 record against AFC foes last season, including a pair of double-digit victories at home against the Jets and Patriots. I’m expecting them to bounce back from last week’s disappointment and to smoothly dismantle the Titans following extended prep time.
Titans vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
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It’s no surprise that this total sits at 41.5, considering Tennessee’s inept offense through 4 games. Breaking it down to the core, the Titans have scored a total of 3 TDs this season. Two of those trips to the end zone came on 2 separate occasions against Indianapolis in Week 3 when trailing by 21 points. Tennessee failed to light up the scoreboard in last Sunday’s 26-0 loss at Houston, marking the 2nd Under in 2 road games. In both contests played in Nashville against the Rams and Colts, the Over cashed easily.
The Cardinals have gone Under the total in 3 of 4 games, but have not seen a total this low. In the 3 games that finished Under, the total closed between 44 and 44.5. Arizona slowed down Seattle last Thursday, holding the Seahawks to 23 points after a pair of wins scoring 31 and 44 points. Something has to give here as both teams rank in the bottom 5 of the NFL in yards per game, but each club sits in the bottom 10 of the league in yards allowed per game.
Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray has yet to throw for more than 220 yards in a game this season, as he posted 200 passing yards on 27 completions in the loss to Seattle. In 3 of 4 games this season, the Titans have limited opposing QBs to throw for 233 yards or less. In the last 3 games, Arizona’s pass defense has yielded 328 passing yards to Carolina’s Bryce Young, 284 yards to San Francisco’s Mac Jones and 242 yards to Seattle’s Sam Darnold. However, 133 of those yards from Young came in the 4th quarter with Carolina trailing, 27-9. It’s hard to make a convincing argument for a high-scoring game, especially with Tennessee racking up 12 total points in 2 road losses.
Titans vs Cardinals pick: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.
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The Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to bounce back from a surprising loss to the New York Giants when they entertain the Washington Commanders in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon, and my Commanders vs Chargers pick is on the home team to win and cover. It has otherwise been a solid start to the 2025 campaign for Los Angeles, which had been 3-0 prior to last weekend’s setback. Defense has been a big reason for the Chargers’ success; they are third in total defense, fifth in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team really had no business losing to the Giants, either. New York averaged an anemic 3.6 yards per play and still managed to win even though L.A. averaged 6.0 yards per play. The Bolts were undone by 2 turnovers (the Giants committed none) and a ridiculous 14 penalties for 107 yards.
There is no reason to think that a Harbaugh-coached club will make those errors 2 weeks in a row. Assuming the Charger don’t, they should be able to take care of the Commanders. Jayden Daniels is back after missing 2 games due to a knee injury; that’s good news for the visitors, obviously, but Daniels has not played since September 11. It remains to be seen if he is rusty and/or less than 100 percent; even if he is good to go, the LSU product has to face one of the best defenses in football. Wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are out, while Deebo Samuel is questionable. All in all, this sets up very well for the home side.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Chargers -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Daniels my be back on the field, but I don’t have much confidence in him to go crazy when he is coming off a 2-week injury absence, has to go up against the Chargers’ defense and is missing at least 2 of his primary pass-catchers and maybe 3. Running back Austin Ekeler is already out for the season with a torn Achilles’ so this is a depleted offense even with Daniels once again under center. That is a big reason why my Commanders vs Chargers pick is Under 47.5.
Los Angeles hasn’t exactly set the world on fire so far, either. Justin Herbert and company have not yet produced more than 27 points in any contest and in their last 3 outings they have scored between 18 and 23 points. That is decent but unspectacular stuff. Moreover, the offensive line is banged up with left tackle Joe Alt unlikely to play on Sunday and Mekhi Becton questionable. Running back Najee Harris is on injured reserve, so the backfield belongs entirely to Omarion Hampton. All things considered, a total of 47.5 is a little bit too big for this matchup.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Under 47.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
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The Bills had a little scare against the Saints at home, but eventually, the inevitable happened. Buffalo ran away with a 2-score lead in the 4th quarter, and they still outpaced the Saints in total yards (356 to 298) and yards per play (6.2 to 4.6). Josh Allen had an uncharacteristic interception, but ultimately it was a clean, if not underwhelming, operation by Buffalo. For elite teams, it isn’t always pretty (just ask Philadelphia), but Josh Allen and his teammates know how to answer when they need to. So far, no opponent has been formidable enough to stop them.
The Patriots are off a week where the NFL media is singing their praises. Undoubtedly motivated by the news of defensive coordinator Terrell Williams stepping away to battle cancer, they ensured a dominant win at home in Week 4. Following a kick-off return for a touchdown, New England’s offensive line bullied Carolina’s defense in the run-game and let loose from there, taking advantage of a myriad of special teams mistakes by the visiting team. Suddenly, the Panthers’ offense stuttered, too, succumbing to a predictable pass-first approach that New England sniffed out.
We’re also hearing much praise for Drake Maye after Week 4, which he somewhat deserves, but an adequate game against one of the worst teams in the NFL is not a reason to fall in love with a quarterback (with Bryce Young at QB, the Panthers are 1-17 on the road). Drake Maye has shown growth and signs of a true franchise quarterback, but in Weeks 1-3, the Patriots’ offense was only scoring 16.7 points per game. They have their issues. Not to mention, while they put up 41 points in Week 4, nearly every scoring drive was set up with a sensational punt return; Maye wasn’t slicing and dicing the Panthers’ defense (breaking news: he only had 17 pass attempts).
The Bills have been playing with their food, but this is still a fantastic spot for them at home before they go to Atlanta on Monday Night Football in Week 6. The same cannot be said for the Patriots, who start a 3-game road trip at Orchard Park. It’s a big spread, but the Bills should have several opportunities to pull away.
Patriots vs Bills prediction: Bills -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
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In Drake Maye’s first start at Orchard Park last season, he looked the part, going 22-36 for 261 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Patriots actually out-gained the Bills on that day, totaling 379 yards and 28 first downs. New England’s offense doesn’t seem capable of putting up those kinds of numbers every week just yet, but perhaps a familiar opponent like Buffalo will help do the trick. Buffalo’s defense is good, but we’ve also seen them fold against a few offenses. Even last week, they couldn’t stop the Saints on a myriad of drives. It remains to be seen if stars Ed Oliver and Matt Milano will return in Week 5, but right now the Bills’ resistance isn’t very stout (17th in points per game allowed, 22.5).
Of course, regardless of what the Bills’ defense can or can’t do, the offense still has Josh Allen. On paper, it looks as if the Patriots run defense is very good, top-5 in multiple categories, but the strength of schedule matters. Through the first 4 weeks, New England has faced some of the worst ground operations in the NFL. The combination of James Cook and Allen, on the other hand, is lethal, one that no defense has been able to slow down so far. They lead the NFL with 163.5 rushing yards per game. In pass defense, the Patriots have been lackluster, ranking 29th in opponent completion percentage and 26th in opponent pass yards per game. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez returned last week, but the Patriots’ woes are more than a 1-player issue. And Allen is no ordinary quarterback. Buffalo, New York is forecasted to be 76 degrees, and we project plus-matchups for both offenses.
Patriots vs Bills best bet: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.
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The majority of the football world probably hates to hear it, but last Sunday the Chiefs looked like the same, championship-calibre program that’s gone to the Super Bowl 5 times in the past 8 seasons. At home against a fellow championship contender, the Chiefs annihilated the Ravens in their most complete game of their young campaign. The return of Xavier Worthy stretched Baltimore‘s defense, aiding Patrick Mahomes’ ability to distribute the ball and dominate through the air like only he can. The former 2-time MVP completed 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Eventually, Baltimore produced more yardage in garbage time, but Kansas City dominated, taking a 30-13 lead into the 4th quarter. It was a sign that the Chiefs, who are healthy and now only awaiting the return of Rashee Rice, are as dangerous as they’ve ever been.
The Jags impressed in Week 4, too. In perhaps their biggest win of the last 2 seasons, Jacksonville journeyed to the Pacific Northwest, a time zone where they’re historically 2-13 straight up, and outmatched the 49ers. Gaining 151 yards on the ground and forcing 4 turnovers, the Jaguars were balanced and effective in their trip, proving that new coach Liam Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile are transforming the franchise in a positive direction. Through 4 weeks, the Jaguars rank as a top-5 defense and top-10 rushing attack, although their passing game and Trevor Lawrence, who continues to make boneheaded plays in every game, still leaves much to be desired. Lawrence is 31st in pass completion percentage (58.33%) and 26th in yards per pass (5.9).
Will the real Chiefs please stand up? We believe they just did. Historically, Mahomes and the Chiefs are not very good as favorites over the past 2 seasons, going just 17-17-1 against the spread. But they’re also rarely a small favorite, even on the road, and while Jacksonville has played well, we must consider their opponents. They beat the Panthers, the Bengals without Joe Burrow for 2 quarters and lost, the Texans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and a banged-up San Francisco roster. The Chiefs in their current form are a different beast.
Chiefs vs Jags prediction: Chiefs -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.
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Despite 2 defenses that have outperformed their offensive counterparts, the number in this Monday Night Football contest is moving up. Some of that undoubtedly has to do with the renaissance of both offenses in Week 4, another case of the market responding to what feels like a week-to-week league. Kansas City made a 37-point scoreboard look easy, dominating the Ravens’ defense and exposing holes in their secondary throughout the battle. Even on the ground, they managed to accumulate 118 yards, a better result than usual. Against the Jaguars, we doubt those figures will improve, since the home team only permits 82.8 rush yards per game (4th overall). The question is: will that matter?
Mahomes creates magic on a weekly basis, and if the Kansas City pass-game is efficient, even a subpar ground attack might not limit the success of their drives. Usually, Mahomes and company are surgical at converting 3rd downs and turning red-zone visits into touchdowns, but that hasn’t been the case this season. In Week 4, they were effective enough (5-15 on 3rd down), particularly in the red zone (4-6 TD rate). The previous 3 weeks bring down their statistics, but the market clearly thinks Week 4 was a clearer representation of what the Chiefs can bring to the table from now on, even if it was against an ailing Baltimore defense.
The bigger question is Jacksonville’s offense, which we have less faith in. Trevor Lawrence’s mediocre quarterback play (a 49 QBR, ranked 21st) has been inconsistent and disappointing, and the Chiefs’ defense plays far better when their offense stays on the field. Kansas City also has one of the NFL’s premier defensive minds, Steve Spagnuolo, who can exacerbate Lawrence’s poor tendencies. The market seems to think both teams will get into the 20s; we have our doubts.
Chiefs vs Jaguars pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.
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I’m not a believer in the Broncos. Even if you are a believer, 2.5 points still isn’t enough in this Sunday Night Football showdown. The Commanders are in Washington for this one and teams generally get a 3-point bonus at home, so that means the oddsmakers rate the Broncos as on par or even as the superior of the 2 teams. That’s a no from me, dawg. Jayden Daniels is a much more dynamic quarterback than Bo Nix (and compared to almost everyone), plus he is armed with a better supporting cast. As of right now, this is by far my favorite bet of the season.
By the time Week 14 rolls around, #1 overall Cam Ward should have found his footing in the NFL. That’s not to say Tennessee’s offense will be a well-oiled machine at this point, but it should at least resemble something respectable. As for the 49ers, they seem to be a team on the decline. This franchise might be tempted to blow it all up sooner rather than later, and this late in the 2025 campaign it could be time to tank for a high draft pick. There’s no way I’m giving the Titans more than a touchdown.
The 49ers and Rams are at the top of the NFC West, 2 perennial elites that once again appear on a collision course. Despite their 3-1 records, they don’t feel like similar programs right now. San Francisco is coming off a bad loss where they turned it over 4 times against the upstart Jaguars, who were a 3.5-point underdog. Furthermore, the 49ers’ rushing attack continues to be pedestrian, gaining just 88 rush yards per game (28th). Mac Jones will be in command for the 49ers after Brock Purdy was ruled out, and will lead a talented group that’s top-5 in total offense, although they have been slow to capitalize and score points (20 ppg, ranked 22nd). Their defense is likely playing over its head at this point, with injuries mounting and offenses starting to figure out their holes. The 2025 49ers are starting to run into the same problems that affected their 2024 campaign, which is a cause for concern.
Historically, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have done well in this series (11-6 against McVay), but the Rams are a different animal this season. Indianapolis gave away some points in their Week 4 battle, but the home team also took advantage of Indy’s mistakes. Additionally, Matthew Stafford’s connection with Puka Nacua proved elite once again (13 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown). It was an impressive response after blowing a sure win in Philadelphia last Sunday, arguably a champion’s response. On both sides, the Rams seemingly have the talent and firepower to keep up with any team in the NFL, and by playing mistake-free football, they proved too much for their previously undefeated visitors last Sunday.
While Shanahan has typically found success against the Rams, this checks out as a nice opportunity for the 49ers’ regression. The question is, how good are the Rams? And how different is the matchup at this juncture? Based on our power ratings, the Rams are clearly the better team, and they should be able to secure a statement win on TNF to take control of the NFC West.
49ers vs Rams prediction: Rams -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.
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In Week 4, it was San Francisco’s offense that really put the team in a tough position. Brock Purdy’s uncharacteristic turnovers crushed drives and the Niners were just 1-3 in the red zone. San Francisco still managed to out-gain the Jaguars in nearly every category, earning 22 first downs and 389 total yards in a loss. The same issues that hurt San Francisco last season are starting to creep up, including struggles in the red zone (they’re 27th in red zone touchdown rate) and a rushing attack that leaves much to be desired (3.3 yards per rush, 31st). In general, their offensive line just hasn’t been as dominant, anchored by an aging Trent Williams and struggling youth. Still, in every game, the 49ers manage to produce. They’re top-5 in total yards per game (368), and after their poor performance against Jacksonville, we anticipate positive regression. Brock Purdy being ruled out could have an impact, although I don’t think there is too much between him and Mac Jones, and Jones threw 3 touchdown passes against the Saints in his other start this season.
On the other side, we would be surprised if the Rams didn’t score at will. The 49ers’ defense has held up despite injuries and many losses in free agency, but last week they showed too many holes against a mediocre Jacksonville offense, one that managed to gain 151 yards on the ground. Matthew Stafford is very dangerous when the Rams’ ground attack is prolific, a scenario we have yet to see this season (LAR ranks 13th in rush yards per game, averaging 120.8). Stafford also has a group of elite wide receivers that can test a 49ers defense that’s top-3 in yards per pass allowed but 25th in opponent completion percentage. Puka Nacua has been particularly unguardable, leading the NFL in receptions (42) and receiving yards (503). Having Davante Adams on the other side is simply unfair, a big reason why the Rams are 4th overall in total offense, averaging 388.3 yards per game. Thursday Night Football should be a fun watch.
49ers vs Rams best bet: Over 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.
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Puka Nacua is playing like the #1 wide receiver in football, yet newcomer Davante Adams is dominating the red area for the Rams. He’s logging a mind-blowing 71.4% target share in the red zone — 2nd in the NFL behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. With those metrics, Adams’ touchdown odds have fallen to +125, but we’re still going to fire off on Adams scoring finding the end zone against a 49ers defense decimated with injuries. At plus-money odds, I believe this prop still has value.
For our 2nd 49ers vs Rams TD scorer bet, we’re sticking with the Rams offense and backing running back Blake Corum. Starter Kyren Williams is -200 to find the end zone on Thursday Night Football — certainly not a price I’m willing to back. On a short week, Blake Corum should see more opportunities than we’ve seen in the past in Sean McVay’s offense. His rushing attempts prop has yet to be released on major books, so we’ll read into his anytime touchdown prop at +325 — down to +275 with sharper books. Many expect the Rams offense to fire on all cylinders. If that’s the case, Corum should see an uptick in volume.
This line comes on the back of a dominant Kyren Williams performance in Week 4 where the Rams took down the Indianapolis Colts in a shootout; Williams took 2 carries on the last series to get him to 13. He’s gone over this line in 2 of 4 games this season (3 of 4 at 16.5), but what I noticed last week is McVay’s insistence on getting Corum entrenched into the rotation. He’s on record stating he wants a 65/35 split and after the Colts win, he doubled down stating he will not ride the hot hand since the team is at its best when both backs are involved.
Corum has seen his snaps grow in each of the last 3 weeks, and in order for the 49ers to have a shot at the upset, they will need to control the clock and keep Stafford & company on the sidelines. This number is just too high for me given Corum’s cemented role and the fact that Williams is coming off his lowest snap count of the season. San Francisco ranks 31st in pressure rate through 4 weeks of the season, which should give McVay more reason to utilize the passing game to make a statement in primetime.
Los Angeles Rams -7 over San Francisco 49ers (-105)
Even though both teams are 3-1 heading into this game, they certainly feel like they’re going in different directions. After all, the 49ers just turned the ball over a whopping 4 times in a loss to the Jaguars, and the San Francisco offense has been ravaged by injuries to its wide receiving corps and offensive line, to say nothing of Brock Purdy’s injury that sidelined him for a few weeks and certainly could have affected his play last Sunday. Therefore, even though Kyle Shanahan has historically had success against the Rams, Sean McVay’s team is much healthier at the moment and the Rams are playing better on both sides of the ball heading into this one.
It’s certainly on the board that Los Angeles is just 1 play away from being 4-0. In fact, if not for a game against the Eagles, where the Rams blew a 19-point lead in the 2nd half, this would be a team most experts would have pegged as a Super Bowl contender. The Los Angeles offense is easily a top-10 unit in the sport at the moment, with Matthew Stafford in complete command and looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He certainly has the weapons to throw to, as the dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are proving to be very difficult to contain on the outside. As long as the Rams continue to play mistake-free football, they should be in a good position to win and cover the number against the banged-up 49ers.
Over 45 (-108)
Regardless of which team covers the spread in Thursday’s game, this matchup should be a high-scoring affair. Despite their solid start to the campaign, the 49ers’ defense has been compromised due to the rash of injuries on that unit, and it doesn’t help matters that they’ll finally be facing an offense that can do real damage in all phases of the game. Los Angeles is a formidable opponent, averaging nearly 400 yards per game, while sitting inside the top 10 in EPA per pass and EPA per play, per SumerSports.
On the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy is once again ruled out for San Francisco which means Mac Jones will be back under center. While the 49ers have been inconsistent in the passing game to this point, Jones did have some success against the Saints a couple of weeks ago, can they they still should be able to lean on Christian McCaffrey to produce against a Rams defense that is much weaker against the run (18th in EPA per rush allowed) than against the pass. Let’s take the Over in this NFC West showdown.
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown scorer (+100)
He might not be the flashiest player to watch, but Puka Nacua has arguably been the best wide receiver in the game over the first month of the season. The BYU product should be in a good position to succeed once again on Thursday, especially considering the matchup. Nacua has been unguardable to this point, as he led the NFL in receptions (42) and receiving yards (503) in September.
The 3rd-year wideout is clearly Stafford’s favorite target within this offense, and he should flourish against a 49ers defense that has faced Jacksonville, New Orleans and Arizona in recent weeks; not exactly the most threatening of passing offenses. This is a massive step-up in class for San Francisco’s banged-up defense, and Nacua should find the end zone as a result.
Why Trust our NFL Picks
Through the first four weeks of the 2025 season our record speaks for itself. Our team of handicappers have racked up 37 winning NFL against the spread and moneyline picks (and 1 push), for +27 units of profit. On top of that, our NFL over/under picks have landed on 36 games, for a profit of +10.1 units. When you combine the two, our expert NFL picks have scored +37.1 units of profit so far this season.
| Pick | Wins | Losses | Profit (betting units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sides (ATS & Moneyline) | 37 | 26 | +27 |
| Over/Under | 36 | 28 | +10.1 |
| Total | 73 | 54 | +37.1 |
At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.
Free NFL Picks Explained
We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.
There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.
Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.
NFL Picks Against the Spread
The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.
For Example
Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.
NFL spread betting trends 2025
- The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
- Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
- Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.
Free NFL Over / Under Picks
Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.
NFL over / under betting trends
- Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
- Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
- Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.
Money Line NFL Picks
Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.
NFL Moneyline betting trends
- Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
- Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
- Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.
2025-26 NFL Schedule
This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.
NFL Playoff Picks
You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.
| NFL Playoff Picks | |
| NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks | |
| NFL Divisional Round Picks | |
| NFL Conference Championship Picks |
NFL Expert Picks
Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.
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Statistical Approach to NFL Picks
It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.
Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor
NFL Picks FAQs
To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.
The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line
Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 73 winning NFL picks for a profit of 37 units
Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.
Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 37 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.
