NFL Picks

Both the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants dropped their season openers on the road to division rivals. The Cowboys lost to the defending champion Eagles, 24-20, but managed a cover as 8-point road underdogs. Dallas trailed, 21-20 at the half, but the teams combined for 3 points in the 2nd half following a lengthy weather delay. RB Javonte Williams reached the end zone twice in his Dallas debut, while WR CeeDee Lamb hauled in 110 yards despite a few key drops late.

The Giants couldn’t get any offense going in Russell Wilson’s first start with New York. The Commanders shut down Wilson and the G-Men in a 21-6 home victory as 6-point favorites. Wilson finished 17-of-37 for 168 passing yards, marking his 5th game since last season throwing for less than 200 yards.

Dallas has captured 8 consecutive matchups with New York since 2021, including a pair of victories by less than 7 points last season. In all 8 of those losses, the Giants have scored 20 points or less. In a 20-15 defeat at MetLife Stadium last September, New York failed to score a touchdown and kicked 5 field goals. Dallas finished 2-7 at AT&T Stadium last season with the first victory coming against the Giants after an 0-5 start. QB Dak Prescott lost all 3 home starts in 2024 before his season ended in November with a hamstring injury.

The Giants are riding a 5-game road losing streak dating back to last October. New York’s last victory away from MetLife came at Seattle as 7-point underdogs, where they won 29-20 in Week 5 last season. In 6 of the last 8 seasons, the Giants have started 0-2, including the first time under head coach Brian Daboll in 2024. The Cowboys haven’t begun 0-2 since the 2010 season, and I expect Dallas to be able to continue that trend on Sunday by taking care of New York by at least a touchdown.

Giants vs Cowboys prediction: Cowboys -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Both results for New York and Dallas finished under the total in Week 1, although 1 game was in major doubt. Dallas and Philadelphia combined for 41 points in the first half last Thursday on a 47.5 total and the teams needed just 1 touchdown after halftime. However, a weather delay for nearly an hour destroyed the scoring momentum as the Eagles were the only team to post points with a field goal in the 2nd half to win 24-20. The Giants had no shot at an Over at Washington in a 21-6 loss on a 45.5 total. New York was held to a pair of field goals, while the Commanders racked up 432 yards of offense.

The totals in recent matchups between the Giants and Cowboys have been all over the place the last few seasons. The first meeting at MetLife Stadium finished under the total of 45 points in 2024 as Dallas won 20-15. Dak Prescott threw for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns in the victory, but he missed the 2nd matchup due to a season-ending hamstring injury. Dallas held off New York at home, 27-20, in a battle of backup QBs as the Over of 39 points easily cashed.

The Over is 5-3 in the past 8 meetings since 2021, as Dallas has not been held below 20 points in this span. Meanwhile, New York has not scored more than 20 points in any game during this stretch. The Under is 6-3 in New York’s last 9 games since November 2024, but the Cowboys are 3-0 to the Over in Prescott’s 3 home starts last season. I have to believe that the Giants’ offense will play better this week and Dallas should be able to get what they want against this New York defense.

Giants vs Cowboys pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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The much-anticipated Super Bowl rematch is already here in Week 2 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Eagles routed the Chiefs 40-22 in February, as Philadelphia jumped out to a 34-0 lead on its way to its 2nd Super Bowl title in franchise history. The Chiefs return home after dropping the season opener in Brazil to the Chargers, 27-21 as 3-point favorites. QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards and a touchdown, while also running for a score in the loss. Philadelphia held off Dallas, 24-20 in the opening game of the NFL season. The Eagles failed to cover as 8-point home favorites, as QB Jalen Hurts rushed for a pair of touchdowns.

In the Super Bowl blowout, Hurts torched the Chiefs for 2 touchdown passes and a score on the ground. Mahomes posted 3 touchdown tosses, with 2 coming when Kansas City trailed by 34 points. Philadelphia is in the midst of a 16-1 run the past 17 games, with the lone loss coming against Washington when Hurts got injured early on last December. The Chiefs won all 10 home games last season, capped off by playoff victories over the Texans and Bills. The last time Kansas City lost at Arrowhead came in Week 16 of the 2024 season against Las Vegas in a 20-14 defeat.

This line has flipped as the Eagles are currently a short road favorite. Kansas City has not been a home underdog since the AFC title game in 2022 against Cincinnati, as the Chiefs held off the Bengals, 23-20, as 2-point ‘dogs. In Philadelphia’s last visit to Kansas City in 2023, the Eagles erased a 17-7 deficit to shock the Chiefs, 21-17 in a Monday-night Super Bowl rematch. Philadelphia outscored Kansas City, 14-0 in the 2nd half behind a pair of Hurts rushing touchdowns. It’s hard to forget about that rout in New Orleans in February by the Eagles, but the Chiefs have never started 0-2 with Mahomes as the starter and I like them as a dog.

Eagles vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to pick’em.

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The total for Super Bowl LIX closed at 48.5 as Philadelphia almost reached that number by themselves with 40 points on its own. The Eagles rolled the Chiefs, 40-22, although Over bettors needed points late in the game. Kansas City scored a touchdown with 2:54 to make it a 40-14 game, but it was obviously too little, too late for the defending champions.

The Eagles were set to cash the Over in Week 1 against the Cowboys as Philadelphia led at halftime 21-20 on a 47.5 total. The 2 NFC East rivals combined for 3 points in the 2nd half following a long weather delay as the game remained Under 47.5, much to the chagrin of Over bettors. The Chiefs played a pair of low-scoring games against the Chargers last season, but the AFC West foes hit the Over in the opener in Brazil last Friday. Los Angeles held off Kansas City 27-21 as the Over of 46.5 barely hit thanks to a late Harrison Butker field goal.

Last season, Kansas City was 5-5 to the Over at home, but the Over cashed in all 3 games with a total of 45 or more. There weren’t any convincing numbers in Philadelphia’s road games in 2024 from a total perspective. The Eagles hit the Over 4 times and Under 4 times away from Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia posted a 3-2 Over mark in its 5 opportunities as a road favorite, as the Eagles are playing their first road game since Week 16 at Washington last season.

The Eagles likely won’t put up 40 points against the Chiefs again, as this game will probably be more of a grind-it-out contest. Also, Jalen Carter didn’t get suspended for Philadelphia after his ejection for spitting on Dak Prescott in the opener, which will help out the Eagles’ defense.

Eagles vs Chiefs pick: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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Both Tampa and Houston impressed in Week 1, albeit for different reasons. The Texans didn’t get a win but that doesn’t mean it was all bad news. Their defense looked in heavyweight form, limiting the Rams to just 74 rushing yards and they were in Matthew Stafford’s face for 4 quarters. Stafford and an elite group of receivers eventually figured it out enough to put up 2 touchdowns, but the Rams couldn’t eke out a score in the 1st or 4th quarters. Houston’s offense is a different story.

Surprisingly, they ran for 114 yards, but CJ Stroud faced much of the same pressure that stunted his 2024 progress. Sacked 3 times and just 2-9 in 3rd downs, Stroud struggled to accelerate his offense’s production when the team needed it most. To be fair, they were up against an underrated Rams defense, one that plainly exhibited its scary potential in Week 1. But Stroud wasn’t happy, telling the media that it was a “wake-up call.” The Texans’ chances of making any noise this season feel decreased already, with no evidence suggesting things will change along their offensive line. 

However, Monday night’s contest may offer a better opportunity. Tampa’s offense is capable of explosive plays, but they didn’t quite look like themselves in Week 1. Perhaps the loss of Liam Coen and/or the absence of Tristan Wirfs (currently recovering from a knee surgery), by far the most important piece of their offensive line, matter more than we thought. Baker still managed to overcome a feisty Atlanta defense and win on Sunday, but they were considerably outgained (258-360). Speaking of which, Michael Penix Jr. threw all over the Bucs defense last Sunday with 298 yards on 7 yards per pass. Tampa’s defensive line, a group that struggled last season, mustered just 1 sack and 3 QB hits. They were stingy against the run, but the Bucs looked below average against the pass. At home and with Stroud rallying the troops, we like the Texans to come out on fire, from the 1st quarter, and that should make all the difference.

Bucs vs Texans prediction: Texans -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have a feeling that Texans games will look very similar all season. Immediately, against a very good defense, we saw the setbacks of Houston’s offensive line, a group that couldn’t protect CJ Stroud from having to run from danger all game against the Rams. According to the New York Times, Stroud faced pressure on 41% of plays. He was also sacked 3 times and hit another 7. Without Laremy Tunsil to protect his blind side, Stroud is in the most dangerous pocket of his young career. The Texans ran the ball better than we thought they would last Sunday (114 yards), but they will face a Tampa Bay defense that held a potent Falcons’ rushing attack to just 69 yards in their opener. For years, the Bucs have been a known commodity in run defense (looking at you, Vita Vea), and this season looks no different.

Defensively, Houston was very impressive in Week 1, despite the loss. They held the Rams to just 2.9 yards per carry, 72 in total, and sacked Matthew Stafford 3 times. Of course, like Tampa, the Rams have exceptional pass catchers and Stafford was able to produce at a good enough level to score 14 points. He also converted 7-13 3rd downs. Overall, Houston’s defense protected the team’s margin throughout their first contest, a responsibility that doesn’t seem too big for them at this juncture. After opening at 46.5, this opening total fell quickly. Going to Houston will be a tough test for any offense this season, while the Texans’ offense has too many issues to trust in a higher total.

Buccaneers vs Texans pick: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It may be too early to say that 2 teams are in a must-win spot, but the loser of this Chicago/Detroit matchup falls to 0-2 overall and 0-2 in division play. The Lions’ offense certainly looked different after offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left to take the head coaching job in Chicago. Detroit lost at Green Bay 27-13 as the lone touchdown came in the final minute of regulation. QB Jared Goff completed 31 passes but totaled 225 yards for the Lions, while the running game was held to 46 yards.

The Bears blew a 17-6 lead in the 4th quarter on Monday night in a 27-24 home setback to the Vikings. QB Caleb Williams threw for 210 yards and rushed for 58 yards, but Chicago’s offense scored 1 touchdown in the final 3 quarters. The Bears picked off Minnesota QB J.J. McCarthy and returned the interception for a score to grab a 17-6 advantage before the Vikings’ rally.

Now, Johnson takes the Bears into Ford Field in this critical divisional matchup trying to beat the offense he helped lead the last 3 seasons. Chicago finished last season with a 1-7 record on the road that extends to 2-12 dating back to 2024. Detroit went 7-2 at home in the regular season before losing to Washington in the divisional playoffs. The Lions captured each of the 2 meetings last season, even though Detroit edged Chicago 23-20 at Ford Field as 10-point favorites on Thanksgiving. In the 2 matchups, Williams put up 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. There will no doubt be a lot of public sentiment for the Lions, but the Bears are worth a strong look in spite of the tough Monday night loss to Minnesota.

Bears vs Lions prediction: Bears +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chicago was on its way to an Under in the season opener against Minnesota before yielding 21 points in the 4th quarter of a 27-24 loss on Monday. The game finished Over the total of 43.5 points, even though the Vikings picked up 254 yards of offense. Detroit wasn’t close to hitting the Over in its Week 1 loss at Green Bay, 27-13 on a 48.5 total. The Lions scored their only touchdown in the final minute, while both Detroit and Green Bay each racked up less than 270 yards of offense.

Last season, the Bears went 6-2 to the Under on the road last season, while scoring 16 points or less 6 times. The Lions finished Under the total in each of its first 2 home games in 2024, but Detroit went 6-2 to the Over in its final 8 contests at Ford Field. The NFC North rivals went Over and Under the total in their 2 matchups last season. Detroit edged Chicago on Thanksgiving, 23-20, to stay Under the total of 47.5 points. In the 2nd meeting at Soldier Field, the Lions crushed the Bears, 34-17, to go Over 47.5 points. 3 of the last 4 meetings at Ford Field have gone Under the total dating back to 2021.

In the 2 meetings last season, the Bears were held to 78 and 59 rushing yards. Chicago picked up 119 yards on the ground in the loss to Minnesota, as Caleb Williams was responsible for 51 of those yards. Goff torched the Bears for 5 touchdown passes in the 2 victories last season. In his last 2 home games against the Vikings in Week 18 and the Commanders in the divisional playoffs, Goff was intercepted a total of 5 times. Look for another low-scoring game between these division rivals on Sunday.

Bears vs Lions pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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I also like this player prop bet under 58.5 that FanDuel is offering. D’Andre Swift was inefficient in Week 1, only averaging 3.1 ypc. The Lions present a difficult challenge and just did a great job limiting Josh Jacobs to 3.5 ypc. Detroit is favored by 6 points and I think they’ll come out hot after getting embarrassed by the Packers in Week 1. Swift has struggled against his former team with outings of 39 and 20 yards last year. In those 2 games, he couldn’t hit this line combined in 8 quarters. I like him to stay at 60 or under this week.

Entering the 4th quarter of Monday Night Football in the Week 1, it felt obvious that the 2025 season would be far more challenging for Kevin O’Connell and his Minnesota Vikings. Then the 4th quarter happened. After a terrible pick-six and just 71 yards of offense through the first 3 periods, rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy and the Vikings started to soar. Three touchdown drives on 183 yards of offense later, and the Vikings were closing out a contest that seemed like a sure-fire loss 15 minutes prior.

Some may take this rough opening to mean that it will be a clunky beginning for the JJ McCarthy era in Minnesota. We think otherwise. Firstly, Minnesota’s defense was flying around the ball all game, keeping the Bears offense out of scoring distance while pressuring Caleb Williams at an incessant pace. Chicago had a good game plan with new coach Ben Johnson steering the ship, but in the end, it was the Minnesota defense that held the Bears to just 7 points in the final quarter. They also limited the Bears to only 3-12 third-down conversions in the contest. 

Regardless of Minnesota’s flaws in Week 1, coach O’Connell clearly runs a high-level organization, and we believe in the way he solves problems and adjusts during challenging in-game moments. We can’t say the same about the Falcons, at least not yet. To their credit, Michael Penix Jr. and the offense came out on fire, a touchdown in just 3 plays off a scintillating screen pass to Bijan Robinson. But after that, they sputtered, just 6 points in quarters 2 and 3, until urgency returned in the 4th quarter. In general, their execution was poor, just 5-16 on 3rd-down conversions and 2 appearances in the red zone. Production-wise they outplayed the Bucs, permitting 358 to just 260 yards for Tampa, but their defense couldn’t stymie their rival when it needed to, either.

The Falcons have obvious potential. Their offense is extremely talented, their new quarterback has clear arm talent, and their defense showed improvement in Week 1. But as a franchise, they have plenty of room to grow, and we trust Kevin O’Connell and a superior, rejuvenated Vikings roster to get it done at home.

Falcons vs Vikings prediction: Vikings -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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The Falcons couldn’t translate 317 yards into enough points to win their game against the Bucs last week, and it won’t be an easy road again on Sunday Night Football. At the same time, there’s something to be said about redemption. When an 0-1 team approaches their next battle, particularly against a 1-0 team, there’s usually an obvious difference in motivation. We’re not entirely sure if that will be the case against the Vikings, a program that’s as well coached and buttoned up as any in the NFL, but it makes us feel better about the Falcons’ offensive potential.

Sure, the Vikings’ defense is overflowing with talent and they’re an aggressive group, led by one of the most feared defensive coordinators in the NFL. But the Bears, despite their many mistakes, still found a way to produce last weekend (317 yards). Atlanta suffered through the same execution issues as the Bears, failing to translate 3rd-down conversions and therefore points after long drives, but that will be a point of emphasis in practice and their play-calling choices this weekend. In a dome, an environment they’re adapted to already, a speedy, explosive Atlanta offense can get to 20 points against any resistance.

On the other side, we love the chances that JJ McCarthy and the Vikings’ offense picks up right where they left off. At just 22 years old, McCarthy showed his resilience and maturity in Week 1, never giving up on the task at hand and showing confidence in his coach’s tutelage. In plain sight, we witnessed the magic that can happen when a coach and quarterback are on the same page. The result was a 27-point outing, with one big play after another in the quarter that mattered most. 

McCarthy’s ability to settle down and trust his coach’s process will only elevate his chances of succeeding again in his 2nd start, especially at home with a friendly crowd behind him. And while Atlanta’s offense has some kinks to work through, they have the talent and speed to bait the Vikings’ aggressive offense into mistakes. We love an over.

Falcons vs Vikings best bet: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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The data doesn’t do justice to how well Justin Herbert and the Chargers played last Friday night. Battling their divisional foe and reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers conquered their foe in methodical fashion. Herbert played one of the greatest games of his career, answering the Chiefs at every turn, leading scoring drives in every quarter. Along the way, the LA defense recorded 8 quarterback hits, 2 sacks, 3 tackles for a loss and 4 deflected passes. Jim Harbaugh’s defense was flying all over the field, unrelenting in their pursuit of the ball and permitting just 5 out of 14 conversion on Kansas City’s 3rd downs. It was a comprehensive showing from the Chargers and a startling indication of Harbaugh’s impact on the franchise. Herbert looked different, more confident and aggressive, and it made the Bolts feel like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We were extremely impressed.

Harbaugh and Herbert now bring their roster to Las Vegas, against a Raiders team that also looked better than expected in Week 1. Of course, Pete Carroll’s new team was facing a Patriots program that had a ton of new parts, including a young quarterback only in his 2nd season. Raiders’ QB Geno Smith again proved why Carroll views him as such a valuable asset, carrying the offense on his shoulders and maintaining a lead throughout the game, even in hostile territory. Eventually the Patriots slowly caught up and the game was close at the end, but Vegas held on in an otherwise uneventful opener. In truth, besides a crisp performance by Geno Smith, it was a sloppy game. The Raiders got off to a nice start, but it wasn’t nearly as impressive as what we saw from the Chargers. With momentum and renewed optimism in the direction of their franchise, we love the Chargers to cover a short line.

Chargers vs Raiders prediction: Chargers -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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The Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers have only experienced success against the Raiders, putting up 34 and 22 points against their division rival last season, both wins. We think the narrative will stay the same — the Chargers are still the better team, but we saw some aspects of the Raiders’ defense that we really liked in Week 1. Firstly, they were aggressive all game, sacking Drake Maye 4 times and permitting just 60 rushing yards. They were also good when it mattered, limiting the Patriots to just 1-3 in the red zone and 4-14 on 3rd-down conversions. Eventually, Maye and his teammates moved the ball and stacked up a respectable amount of total yards (336), although most of it came after the Raiders took a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, although Geno Smith had success in his opener, he was still sacked 4 times and the Raiders were equally pedestrian on the ground (56 rushing yards). That doesn’t bode well against a Chargers defense that played with maximum aggression last week, holding back Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s historic offense in a dominant manner. A stoic Herbert and Smith give their teams the best chance of putting up points, but we see this as a defensive, divisional war between 2 programs that want to remain undefeated.

Chargers vs Raiders pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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