NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +11.3 units of profit, from 187 winning picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 13, highlighted by NFL Thanksgiving 2025, featuring; Packers vs Lions, Chiefs vs Cowboys and Bengals vs Ravens. There’s also Black Friday football in the form of Bears vs Eagles, plus another eleven games on Sunday, culminating in Broncos vs Commanders on SNF. We round out week 13 with Giants vs Patriots on Monday Night Football.

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1:00 PM ET

Thu Nov 27

FOX

Packers

Lions

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Money Line Pick

GB Packers Win(+125)

Reasoning

Thanksgiving Day features a trio of excellent NFL games, and one of the most consequential matchups of the weekend comes in the NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are set to host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which Green Bay dominated the proceedings. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense. Even in last week’s convincing win over Minnesota, Jordan Love and company were still held to less than 300 total yards of offense and largely benefitted from being plus-three in turnovers. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams. As long as the Packers can somewhat limit the effectiveness of Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, they should do a solid job of getting this Detroit offense off the field.

As for the hosts, the Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. This is not the same offense that we are used to seeing out of the Lions, and Johnson’s absence has clearly been felt in the first season with a new play-caller at the controls. On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last 2 home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions in this NFC North showdown.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Packers ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 49.5(-110)

Reasoning

While games involving Detroit at Ford Field have had the propensity to sail lover the total, this is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game given how both of these offenses have looked of late. Yes, Detroit did score 34 points against the Giants a week ago, but the offense was far from crisp and it really took a couple of tremendous individual effort plays from Jahmyr Gibbs in order to come up with pivotal touchdowns against a Giants rushing defense that is among the worst in football. The Packers present a much tougher matchup, and we saw Green Bay completely bottle up Goff, Gibbs and company earlier this season. On the other side, the Packers offense is dealing with a litany of injuries at the skill positions and Green Bay is still very much a run-first team at the moment. With that in mind, let’s look for a grind-it-out affair in this NFC North battle.

Under 49.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Vote on who will win!

4:30 PM ET

Thu Nov 27

CBS

Chiefs

Cowboys

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Point Spread Pick

DAL Cowboys +3.5(-112)

Reasoning

The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 51.5(-110)

Reasoning

This is currently the highest total of the week, tied with a game involving the Bengals — which is always going to be a monster number regardless of who they are playing. In the case of this game, I think it’s a number slightly too large. As a result, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is Under 51.5. This Kansas City offense simply is not the same as it was in recent seasons. Travis Kelce’s production is declining and the running game is borderline nonexistent. Now the Chiefs are facing a Cowboys defense that has progressed from horrendous to perhaps at least somewhat respectable. The Eagles did not score a single point over the final 41 minutes this past weekend.

Fortunately for head coach Andy Reid’s side, the defense has been solid. Kansas City ranks #8 league wide against the run (97.6 yards per game allowed) and #11 against the pass (195.4 yards). It is #4 in scoring, allowing a mere 18.3 points per contest. Jacksonville (31 points) is the only opponent that has reached the 30-point mark this entire year, and that was only because the Jags returned an interception 99 yards for a touchdown. There will be some offense on Thursday — but probably not to the extent that a 51.5 number suggests.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon

1:00 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

CBS

Texans

Colts

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

HOU Texans +4.5(-110)

Reasoning

Once 0-3, the surging Houston Texans are breathing down the necks of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. That makes Sunday’s Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis an absolutely crucial contest. There is simply no way I’m giving more than a field goal in this kind of division-rivalry game, especially when Houston is on such a roll — 6-2 in its last 8 outings. As such, my Texans vs Colts prediction is for the visitors to cover. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is coming off a dominant defensive performance on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, paving the way to a 23-19 upset of the Bills. Houston forced 3 turnovers (2 Josh Allen interceptions), limited Buffalo to 4.9 yards per play and sacked Allen a ridiculous 8 times for a total of 70 lost yards.

Since the Texans played on Thursday, they are effectively on a mini-bye week. They are well rested and armed with a ton of momentum, whereas the Colts just suffered a tough loss at Kansas City. Prior to that result, Indianapolis needed overtime to get past a mediocre-at-best Atlanta squad in Berlin. Quarterback Daniel Jones was playing awesome football earlier this season, but he has come back down to Earth over the past 3 games. Jones going up against this ferocious Texans defense — and specifically a pass rush spearheaded by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter — spells serious trouble for the home team.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction: Houston +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 44.5(-108)

Reasoning

Everything about this Houston team provides a recipe for low-scoring affairs, so my Texans vs Colts pick is Under 44.5. Unfortunately for the visitors, their incredible defense is not exactly complemented by an overly productive offense. Running back Joe Mixon has been out for the entire season and the injury-plagued Nick Chubb is a shadow of his former self, so there is little ground game of which to speak. Woody Marks has done his best to fill in, but he is not a serious threat. The Texans in all likelihood will also once again be playing with their backup quarterback, Davis Mills. CJ Mills remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol and is questionable for this weekend. Mills can play mistake-free football, but he isn’t a real threat.

Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor is obviously dangerous, but Houston’s defense is also stout against the run. It ranks #5 league wide in rushing defense, giving up just 92.2 yards per contest. Taylor is coming off his worst outing of the season, having been limited to 66 yards from scrimmage (58 on the ground) by Kansas City. As for Jones, he has almost as many interceptions (4) as touchdown passes (5) over the past 3 games. The number is low, so I would proceed with caution — but the under is the play for these 2 teams.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

FOX

Saints

Dolphins

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

MIA Dolphins -5.5(-115)

Reasoning

The Miami Dolphins will be trying to extend their winning streak to 3 games when they host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. Even a 2-game streak is better than anything New Orleans has managed this season. It’s hard to even describe how bad the Saints are. As a result, my Saints vs Dolphins pick is on the home team to win and cover. Head coach Kellen Moore’s crew has 2 victories this season — over a Giants team that committed 5 turnovers and over Carolina when the bad version of Bryce Young showed up. New Orleans is coming off a 24-10 home loss to Atlanta, during which the Saints ran for 79 yards on 28 carries against a horrible rushing defense and averaged an anemic 3.8 yards per play.

This is a fantastic spot for the Dolphins, who should have no trouble capitalizing on the opportunity. Not only have they won 2 straight, but they are also coming off a bye week. Miami is well rested, playing at home and facing an awful opponent. Left for dead at 1-6, the Fins have resurrected themselves to win 3 of their last 4 games. During this stretch, Tua Tagovailoa has a 6-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That may not be anything special, but its far better than his 11-to-10 ratio through his first 7 outings. Count on Tua and the Dolphins staying hot.

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins prediction: Dolphins -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-118)

Reasoning

My other Saints vs Dolphins play is Under 42.5 and I like it almost as much as the ATS bet. After all, hammering the under when New Orleans’ offense is involved generally pays off. The under is an amazing 6-0-1 in the Saints’ last 7 overall, largely because their offense has been inept. They have reached the 20-point mark only twice this entire year, and those 2 exceptions were 21-point and 26-point efforts. New Orleans has scored 14, 3, 10, 17 and 10 points in its past 5 appearances. Rookie QB Tyler Shough has been predictably bland since taking over from Spencer Rattler. The Louisville product has thrown 3 TD passes and 3 INTs through 4 starts, good for a QBR of 41.3.

Fortunately for the Saints, their defense is by no means terrible. It is a run that ranks #9 against the pass and is giving up only 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, so it is pretty solid in both departments. Tagovailoa has been decent of late, but he is not getting a ton of help from his pass-catching corps. Although Jaylen Waddle has been productive at times, he is more effective as a WR2 — but WR1 is the role he has been forced into since Tyreek Hill is out for the season. Expect both offenses to struggle on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins prediction: Under 42.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through week 11 of the 2025 season our team of NFL handicappers have made against the spread and totals picks for every game, with 177 wins (and 3 pushes) our record speaks for itself. Across these markets our expert NFL picks have scored +25.7 units of profit so far this season.

NFL Picks	Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (Moneyline & ATS)	94	2	79	+9.1
Totals (Over/Under)	93	1	81	+2.2
All Picks	187	3	160	+11.3

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.