NFL Picks

One of the two games on Saturday’s NFL Week 16 slate comes in the NFC East, where the Eagles are set to take on the Commanders in the first of a pair of games over the final few weeks of the season. Philadelphia appeared to finally have its “get right” game a week ago, but it was against a Raiders team that is probably the worst outfit in football at the moment, so it’s hard to properly assess just how well the Eagles are playing at the moment. What we do know is that Philadelphia has largely struggled to consistently score for most of the season, and it’s actually the run game that has continued to underperform against expectations. This is the worst rush attack that the Eagles have had in years, and it’s certainly worth examining if Philadelphia will be able to continue winning without having a successful ground game. After all, it’s not as if Jalen Hurts is playing his best football at the moment, so the Eagles below average passing game shouldn’t be expected to have much success on the road in a divisional game.

On the other side, Washington is without Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season, but Marcus Mariota has been effective as a backup quarterback when called upon this season. Just last week, the Commanders knocked off the Giants as short road underdogs, and the offense was surprisingly competent given the injuries that Washington has sustained to this point. With that in mind, even if the Commanders fall behind in this game, we can still count on Mariota and this offense to fight and stay within striking distance against an opponent that has struggled to win by margin all season long. I’ll take the full touchdown with the home team.

Eagles vs Commanders prediction: Commanders +7 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Regardless of which team covers the spread on Saturday, my favorite bet on this game is on the under at the current number. The Eagles have been a money printer to the under this season, as games involving Philadelphia have gone under the total in 6 consecutive contests. There is something to be said for the fact that the Eagles defense is an elite unit, and Vic Fangio’s group should be able to bottle up the Washington offense on the ground, which should force Mariota and company into obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. Conversely, the Eagles offense has been largely unreliable in recent weeks, and it’s hard to trust Hurts and a stale offensive scheme to produce against a division rival on the road. Let’s go with the under while it’s still above the key number of 44.

Under 45 available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5

One of the most consequential games on the NFL Week 16 slate comes in Chicago, where the Bears are going to take on the Green Bay Packers in a massive showdown in the NFC North. These teams just met two weeks ago in Green Bay, and the Packers were able to come out on top in a game that came down to the final possession. This time around, Chicago is in a much better position as a team, and I actually make the Bears a small favorite in this game given the key injuries that Green Bay has sustained in recent weeks. Ben Johnson’s group was just in a very difficult situational spot against the Browns a week ago, and this offense didn’t miss a beat against the stout Cleveland defense, as Chicago racked up 31 points and dominated the game from start to finish at home. Caleb Williams is playing the best football of his young NFL career at the moment, while the Bears defense has shown signs of improvement of late. Given the fact that Chicago came up just a few yards short of sending the previous meeting between these teams to overtime, it’s hard not to favor Williams and company to pick up a possible division-clinching win at home.

While Chicago has impressed me in recent weeks, the Packers are a team that I’ll be looking to fade in the immediate future, albeit through no fault of their own. Green Bay is still one of the best teams in the NFC, but the Packers’ hopes of winning a Super Bowl were essentially dashed a week ago when Micah Parsons went down with a torn ACL in a loss to the Broncos. The rest of the Green Bay defense is still very solid, but it’s hard to quantify just how much of a difference-maker Parsons is in a variety of areas. Elsewhere, the Packers might also be without top wide receiver Christian Watson in this game, and that doesn’t bode well for Jordan Love’s downfield passing efficiency against an opportunistic Bears secondary that has made a living on forcing turnovers this season. I’ll back the home ‘dog while I’m still getting plus-money in what should be a terrific game on Saturday.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Bears ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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Regardless of which team comes out on top on Saturday, the over is my preferred look on the total. While the Bears defense is improved, this is still a unit that has thrived on turnovers and has largely been unable to slow down competent opponents on a down-to-down basis this season. With that in mind, the Packers should be able to generate plenty of success in this game, even if Watson ends up sitting this one out. On the other side, the Bears offense has been absolutely rolling of late and Ben Johnson’s group is averaging nearly 27 points per game over the last four weeks. Let’s take the over in a matchup that could certainly produce some fireworks.

Over 46.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

The Cincinnati Bengals head to Miami this Sunday for a matchup against the Dolphins, and both teams are already counting down the days until next season. Cincinnati had its season derailed when QB Joe Burrow exited its Week 2 game with a turf toe injury, but things haven’t been much better since he returned. After a big win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night, Cincinnati has dropped two in a row to the Bills and Ravens, and the Bengals weren’t even competitive last week against Baltimore, falling 24-0. Luckily for them, they’ll be going up against a 6-8 Dolphins team that just turned to rookie QB Quinn Ewers after head coach Mike McDaniels announced the benching of Tua Tagovailoa. Both teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but I expect the Bengals will be the team with a stronger response after last week’s embarrassing defeat.

The ‘Phins started turning heads during their 4-game win streak, but 3 of those wins came against the Commanders, Saints and Jets. They showed little life in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers after falling behind 28-3, but managed to score 2 garbage-time touchdowns. Additionally, the Bengals being shut out last week actually gives them a boost based on historical trends. Since 2015, teams that were shut out in the previous week are 35-17-3 against the spread in their next game and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. This marked the Bengals’ first shutout with Burrow as the QB, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll want to bounce back in a big way.Finally, McDaniel and the Dolphins have been awful on short rest; they’re just 3-10 since he took over, losing by 8.2 PPG. Although the Bengals have struggled this year, they’ll be up against a rookie QB in his first start after a disappointing loss; give me Cincinnati to win big on Sunday.

Bengals vs Dolphins prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -4 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -5.5.

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I expect Cincinnati to win big this weekend, and they’re going to need to do most of the scoring to push this one over. However, I do think Miami can still put up points, even with a rookie QB, because of how bad this Bengals defense has been all season. Cincinnati allows 31.2 PPG (last in the NFL), and although they’ve had to face Lamar Jackson twice, Josh Allen and Drake Maye over the last 4 weeks, they’ve allowed plenty of points to quarterbacks that are a tier below those three. They gave up 39 points to the Justin Fields-led Jets in Week 8, 48 to Carson Wentz and the Vikings in Week 3, and 65 over 2 games against a Steelers team that averages just 24 PPG. I expect Miami to rely on RB De’Von Achane even more with Ewers under center, especially because the Bengals allow 5.3 yards per carry (30th in the NFL). 

On the flip side, I’m not high on this Miami defense. The Dolphins give up up 6.8 yards per pass attempt (20th in the NFL) and will now face a Bengals offense with extra motivation after being shut out. Additionally, Cincinnati scored 32 and 34 before last week’s shutout, and it looks like they will get WR Tee Higgins back from a concussion. Meanwhile, Miami could miss some key pieces on defense. S Minkah Fitzpatrick is doubtful, and leading tackle LB Jordyn Brooks is questionable and didn’t practice on Wednesday. This defense is beat up and is playing on short rest; I can’t see them suddenly turning things around. All in all, I expect this game to end in the 35-17 range, which should be enough to cash the over.

Bengals vs Dolphins prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable up to 48.5.

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The Arizona Cardinals have lost 11 of their last 12 games heading into a home date with the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Arizona probably doesn’t have the talent or the motivation level to turn things around at this point in the season, so my Falcons vs Cardinals pick is for the visitors to win and cover. Arizona’s defense is horrible. It has allowed 45 and 40 points the last 2 weeks and has given up 40 or more points a ridiculous 4 times during its current 6-game losing streak.

Much unlike the Cardinals, the Falcons are still putting forth a solid effort despite having long since been eliminated from playoff contention. Atlanta has won 2 games in a row, most recently upsetting the NFC South-leading Bucs in Week 15 after trailing by 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter. That was on Thursday Night Football, so head coach Raheem Morris’ squad is effectively playing on a mini-bye week of rest. This is a great spot for a suddenly confident Falcons team against a Cardinals club that is among the worst in the entire NFL.

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals prediction: Falcons -2.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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This is a quarterback matchup between Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins and Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett. Although both veterans clearly have at least a little bit left in the tank, neither one inspires a ton of confidence. You could maybe say that each one is solid, but they don’t provide any dynamic element to their respective offenses. That is part of the reason why my Falcons vs Cardinals pick is Under 48.5.

There is no denying that Arizona’s defense stinks, but can Atlanta take full advantage? Maybe not. WR1 Drake London is questionable with a knee injury and is trending toward missing a fourth consecutive contest. Tight end Kyle Pitts, who went crazy to the tune of 166 yards and 3 touchdowns last Thursday night, is questionable with a knee issue of his own. Fortunately for the Falcons, their defense has overachieved in 2025. The franchise’s previously nonexistent pass rush is second in the NFL in sacks, led by rookie first-round draft pick James Pearce Jr. This will not be an easy day at the office for Brissett, and the Cardinals don’t have the running game to capitalize on a vulnerable Atlanta run defense.

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable 48.

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