NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +21.7 units of profit, from 105 winning ATS picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 14, highlighted by Cowboys vs Lions on Thursday Football, Texans vs Chiefs on Sunday Night Football and Eagles vs Chargers on Monday Night Football.

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8:15 PM ET

Today

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Cowboys

Lions

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Point Spread Pick

DAL Cowboys +3.0(-105)

Reasoning

Perceptions have never been higher on the Cowboys. One week after knocking off the Eagles, a game that sent Philly’s hopes into a spiral, Jerry Jones’ franchise beat the Kansas City Chiefs, cementing victories against each of last year’s Super Bowl attendees. Dallas’ Thanksgiving win might’ve been more impressive than their Week 13 takedown of the Eagles since it included more big plays from their defense. Obviously a different group than the bottom-feeders that started the season, the Cowboys’ defense held Kansas City to just 6 yards per play and 5-13 on 3rd down.

Fresh new faces this season made impacts throughout the game, including 2 sacks by Jadeveon Clowney, one by Dante Fowler Jr., and others made key stops when it mattered. Their offense continued to show off, too. Against one of the best defenses and best defensive coaches in the NFL, Dak Prescott avenged an early interception to go 27/39 for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bulk of that production came from his 2 all-world receivers, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, who combined for 13 catches, 200 yards and a touchdown. Their ground attack also continued to exceed expectations (26 carries for 137 yards), good for 5.3 yards per carry.

Perhaps most important of all, Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer was in full command against the 3-time Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, outwitting Steve Spagnuolo in key moments of the game. At 6-5-1, Dallas is in position to threaten for an NFC East crown, believe it or not!

Things didn’t go so smoothly for the Lions on Thanksgiving. Just like 2 seasons ago, they allowed Jordan Love and an upstart Packers’ offense to slice through their resistance when it mattered. Green Bay threw for 7.8 yards per pass and eventually put up 31 points, and then their defense shut down the Lions’ offense in the 4th quarter. It was a startling showing from Dan Campbell’s program, an outfit we expect to show up and play elite football in these spots. Even worse, Detroit has key injuries throughout their offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially a game-time decision on Thursday, Detroit is down to its 3rd tight end and center Graham Glasnow remains out.

Our first inclination was to go with Detroit off a loss, at home, and with increasing desperation to get their season back on track. But there’s too much momentum on Dallas’ side right now, and we’re not sure how the Lions will be able to stop Dak and his first-class offense (4th in EPA per pass). We’ll go with the visitors.

Cowboys vs Lions TNF prediction: Cowboys +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet

Over 53.5(-120)

Reasoning

The obvious approach in a game with 2 offenses as potent as the Cowboys and Lions is to consider the over. Markets obviously know that. Even at opening, this total was far above average and has barely budged, now circulating around 53.5 depending on the book. Both programs have shown impressive defensive performances at various junctures this season, but for the most part Dallas and Detroit are well below the mean on that side of the ball.

For example, although they’ve played better recently, the Cowboys rank in the bottom 5 in opponent points per game and points per play and in opponent yards per game in yards per play. Lately their defense has been aided by new additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, who coincidentally arrived around the same time that Dallas’ defensive roster got healthier. That helped their resistance limit the Raiders to 16 and the Eagles to 21 points, but last week they still permitted 28 to the Chiefs, a team far more comparable to the high-powered Lions.

It’s tough not to be disappointed by Detroit’s performance last Thursday, but one must keep in mind that it was against a tough divisional opponent. Green Bay seems to have Detroit’s number. Dallas can say no such thing. Last season, the Cowboys allowed a similarly constructed Lions’ roster to put up 47 points at AT&T Stadium. This Thursday, Detroit is surely incurring some injury problems, but they should also be hyper-motivated to correct their mistakes, especially since the NFC North crown is at risk of slipping away. And as most know, the Lions depend on their offense to carry them to victory (they’re top three in points and yards per game).

We could get cute here, but we must take the over.

Cowboys vs Lions best bet: Over 53.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Player Passing Yards Pick

J. Goff (DET) - Over 253.5 pass yds(-112)

Reasoning

It’s easy to look at the injuries of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta and assume that Detroit will rely more on it’s run game to get past Dallas, but since the Cowboys made the trade for DT Quinnen Williams, their rush defense has greatly improved. Furthermore, even without the weaponry, Jared Goff is a significantly better QB indoors at Ford field. Goff is averaging 260.3 yards per game at home this season, which is a whopping 17 yards better than on the road. While the Cowboys’ defense has improved, this is a unit that is still ranked 30th overall in passing yards allowed this season.

I’m comfortable playing a discounted number on Goff due to the St. Brown and LaPorta injuries when you factor in how bad Dallas’ secondary has been this season. Gibbs and Jameson Williams are still exceptional pass-catching targets for Goff that can get him to the 260-yard mark at home.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

D. Prescott (DAL) to score a TD(+650)

Reasoning

A win on Thursday Night Football would have Cowboy fans murmuring Super Bowl aspirations. The rest of the schedule features home games against the Vikings and Chargers, as well as a meeting with the Giants to conclude the season. A run of productive games would have Dak Prescott right in the middle of the MVP conversation, and there’s no better way to bolster those claims than to run in a touchdown on primetime.

Prescott has been limited on the ground these last few seasons, but he’s rushed for 2 touchdowns thus far. As a team, the Cowboys rank in the top half of the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage. TNF includes a matchup against a depleted Lions defense that is allowing a touchdown on 63% of drives that enter the red zone. I’m willing to take a flyer on Prescott to score a TD at +650 odds with a Cowboys implied team total of 26 points, which is the top 5 on the slate.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

K. Turpin (DAL) to score a TD(+600)

Reasoning

I’m going to continue the fun on the Cowboys side with a shot at Kavontae Turpin finding the end zone at +600 for our 2nd Cowboys vs Lions TD scorer. Turpin has game-breaking speed, which ultimately saved the Cowboys’ season on Thanksgiving. He jumped on a George Pickens fumble in the red zone, which later resulted in a crucial Brandon Aubrey field goal. He’s playing upwards of 35% of the offensive snaps since the bye week — an indication that the Cowboys like what they see when they spread the offense out.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Same Game Parlay

Money Line

DAL Cowboys Win

Game Totals

Over 53.5

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

G. Pickens (DAL) to score a TD

Reasoning

Dallas Cowboys ML over Detroit Lions (+142)

For the first leg of our Cowboys vs Lions Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the visitors on the money line. Both of these teams have gone through ebbs and flows this season, but the Cowboys are certainly playing like the better team at the moment. Detroit is clearly missing the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, but the same can’t be said for the Cowboys — as Dallas is arguably the best offense in football at the moment. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level and the Cowboys running game has been extremely efficient against quality competition of late. On the other side of the ball, the Dallas defense has improved thanks to its trade deadline acquisitions, and this pass rush should be able to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes.

The Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dan Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling at Ford Field of late, with Detroit losing outright as a favorite against the Packers a week ago, in addition to dropping a recent home game to the lowly Vikings and failing to cover the spread against the banged-up Giants a few weeks ago. Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 85 points in its last 3 home games, with 2 of those games coming against the likes of JJ McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for this beleaguered defense against a much stronger opponent this week.

Over 53.5 (-112)

This is an instance where I’m bullish on a higher-scoring game given what both teams are capable of. While Detroit’s offense hasn’t always looked crisp this season, the Lions’ offense did score 24 points against the stout Packers defense a week ago, and arguably should’ve scored more when looking at the box score. While the Dallas defense is certainly improved, this is still a much easier matchup for Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and company at home on a fast track.

On the other side, the Cowboys offense has been one of the most efficient units in football all season long, and I’m certainly not stepping in front of them this week, especially given that they have another favorable matchup in an environment that is conducive to scoring. Let’s roll with the over on TNF.

George Pickens anytime touchdown scorer (+125)

Not only has George Pickens been a pleasant surprise for the Cowboys this season, he’s actually been one of the best receivers in football, potentially even surpassing teammate CeeDee Lamb in the process. To his credit, this is certainly the most focused and committed Pickens has been during his time in the NFL and this newfound focus has shown up on the stat sheet. Entering this game, the former Steeler has racked up over 1,100 receiving yards on 73 receptions, while adding 8 touchdowns as well. Pickens has more than proven himself as a trustworthy option in the red zone, so I’ll turn to the dynamic wide receiver to keep making an impact on Thursday.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

CBS

Bengals

Bills

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Point Spread Pick

BUF Bills -5.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Bengals made waves on Thanksgiving night by pulling off an upset as underdogs of nearly a touchdown against the Ravens in Baltimore. On first glance, Joe Burrow’s return seemed to spark the Cincinnati offense and it seemed to be a more inspired effort from the Bengals defense en route to a win that somehow kept them alive in what is suddenly a very weak AFC North division race. However, I’m of the opinion that the narrative on Burrow and the Bengals has gotten a little out of hand heading into this week’s contest, which gives us a bit of value on Buffalo this week.

For starters, much of the talk has been about Cincinnati’s newfound offense, but the Bengals registered one of the bottom 5 success rates of any team that played a week ago, and that was against a pretty banged-up Ravens defense in the back end. Joe Burrow and this offense only averaged 4.8 yards per play and was consistently set up with good field position. It’s hard to assume that this will happen again this week, especially considering Buffalo’s defensive front is playing better following a couple of solid showings against Houston and Pittsburgh. Even though Cincinnati’s offense is a step-up in class compared to those units, it’s hard not to see Buffalo generating pressure when matched up against this Bengals offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, while Cincinnati’s defense is certainly playing better than in weeks past, it still benefited from five Baltimore turnovers a week ago, including a fumble out of the end zone as the Ravens were going in for a touchdown that completely changed the momentum of the game. Considering the fact that Josh Allen and the Bills are due for a bit of turnover regression at home following a string of fumbles and tipped interceptions over the last 4 weeks, we can expect Buffalo to play a cleaner and more efficient game in a spot where it has historically been successful in recent years. I’ll lay the points with a Bills offense that is getting healthier while fading the Cincinnati hype train.

Bengals vs Bills prediction: Bills -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 53.5(-110)

Reasoning

Even though a quarterback matchup like this one will push many in the direction of the over, I can’t get there given how the Bills want to operate. We know that Buffalo wants to run the ball, as Joe Brady’s offense has the highest rush rate of any team in football. Furthermore, the Bills should want to keep their defense off the field as much as possible against Burrow and the Cincinnati offense, which should lead to longer drives with plenty of sequences where Buffalo takes 30+ seconds between plays. On the other side, I discussed how Cincinnati’s offense has been retroactively overrated a bit following last week’s game, and it’s still undetermined if Tee Higgins is going to suit up in what should be very cold and somewhat windy conditions on Sunday. I’ll take the under at the current number.

Under 53.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.

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Caleb Wilfinger

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

CBS

Colts

Jaguars

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Point Spread Pick

IND Colts -1.5(-110)

Reasoning

The AFC South race looked like a runaway in early November when the Indianapolis Colts (8-4) owned a 7-1 mark. The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) sat at 4-3 at the time and were hoping to sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. One month later, the Colts and Jaguars are playing with first place on the line and the Houston Texans are hanging around, sitting 1 game back, which makes this anyone’s division to win heading into December.

The Colts lost their second straight game by less than 4 points in last Sunday’s 20-16 home defeat to the Texans as 3-point favorites. Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones is dealing with a fractured fibula and completed 14-of-27 passes, which was by far his worst completion rate of the season at 51.9%. In 6 of the last 8 games, Jones has thrown at least 2 touchdown passes, including in the loss to Houston. Following that loss, the Colts fell to 1-3-1 against the spread in the last 5 opportunities in the favorite role.

The Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5 games with the lone loss coming in that Week 10 meltdown at Houston, 36-29. Jacksonville has rebounded with 3 consecutive victories, capped off by a pair of road victories at Arizona and Tennessee. Sunday marks only the second home game for Jacksonville since Week 6 when the Jaguars lost to the Seahawks, 20-12. The home schedule sets up nicely for the Jags, who host the Jets next Sunday and close things out in Week 18 against the Titans.

Both teams are 7-4-1 ATS, as Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS at home this season. Indianapolis split its first 2 games as a road favorite, blowing out Tennessee in Week 3, but lost at Pittsburgh in Week 9. Both matchups last season between the Jaguars and Colts were decided by 3 points apiece with the home team winning each time. Jacksonville has won the last 5 home matchup, yet the Jags still an underdog here. We see these teams going in different directions but the Jags look like a public dog in this spot, so we’ll back the Colts.

Colts vs Jaguars prediction: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 47.5(-110)

Reasoning

The last 5 matchups between the Colts and Jaguars have finished over the total. In 2024, Jacksonville outlasted Indianapolis, 37-34 at home, easily going over the total of 44. In the second matchup in Week 18, the Colts escaped past the Jaguars in overtime, 26-23, which hit the over of 45.5. Jacksonville has eclipsed the 31-point mark in 3 of the last 4 matchups, as Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence started in all 3 of those high-scoring outputs.

This season, each team is 6-6 to the over, and the Colts are 3-2 to the under on the road. Jacksonville is 4-1 to the under at EverBank Stadium, as the lone over came in the Monday night comeback victory against Kansas City in Week 5. In their 5 home games, the Jags have given up 10 or fewer points 3 times, including allowing 6 points in their last home win over the Chargers in Week 11. The Colts are on a 3-1 under run in the past 4 games, while scoring 20 or less points 3 times. In the first 8 games, Indianapolis was held to 20 points once, which came in its first loss to the Rams in Week 4.

The Colts rank 4th in the NFL in yards per game at 375.4, while the Jaguars sit 19th at 326 yards per game. We’ll see how Jacksonville handles Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who leads the league with 1,282 rushing yards. The Jaguars lead the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 82.4, but yielded 177 yards on the ground to Taylor in the Week 18 loss last season. The 47.5 point total is the highest since 2021, and that game remained under the total. This meeting should break the trend of these high-scoring matchups between these AFC South rivals and stay Under the total.

Colts vs Jags prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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Kevin Rogers

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

CBS

Dolphins

Jets

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

MIA Dolphins -2.5(-115)

Reasoning

It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once left for dead with head coach Mike McDaniel all but fired at 1-6, Miami has completely turned things around with 4 wins in its last 5 games. I expect that momentum to continue, so my Dolphins vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. The Dolphins failed to cover in last week’s victory at New Orleans, but they probably should have won by a lot more than 4 points — squandering almost the entirety of a 16-0 lead in the 2nd half.

It is true that the Fins are not very good on the road, but it’s not like MetLife Stadium is a difficult place to play. The Jets’ only home wins are over Atlanta and Cleveland, and they are 3-9 overall. It would not be out of bounds to argue that they should be — or at least could be — 0-12. New York beat Atlanta 27-24 this past weekend despite getting dominated in all phases of the game other than special teams. It scraped past Cleveland 27-20 while gaining 169 yards of total offense. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad outlasted Cincinnati 39-38 when the Bengals did not have Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, Miami’s 4-1 stretch includes a 30-13 rout of Buffalo. Although Tua Tagovailoa is not the most trustworthy quarterback, I will roll with him, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle over anyone and anything the Jets can offer.

Dolphins vs Jets best bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 40.5(-110)

Reasoning

Neither offense inspires any confidence, so my Dolphins vs Jets prediction is Under 40.5. Tagovailoa has performed better of late, but his touchdown-to-interception ratio for the season is still just 17-to-14. New York defends the pass very well, too, ranking #10 league-wide in that department at 196.1 yards per game allowed on 7.0 yards per attempt allowed. I do have some concerns about the Jets’ poor rushing defense being able to contain Achane. But there is some good news — if the Dolphins do go on a few scoring drives, they will likely be run-heavy treks that use up a lot of clock.

The Jets’ back-and-forth QB carousel between Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields has swung back in Taylor’s favor, but it doesn’t really matter. Taylor and New York put up 27 points on Atlanta last week, but it was not exactly a sparkling offensive performance. Defense and a kick return that almost went all the way played a role, as the Jets finished with just 269 yards of total offense on a woeful 4.3 yards per play. They had scored 14 points or fewer in 4 of their previous 6 outings. Meanwhile, the losing team in Miami’s last 6 games has scored 6, 10, 6, 13, 13 and 17 points. At least 1 team — and probably both — will struggle again on Sunday.

Dolphins vs Jets prediction: Under 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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Ricky Dimon

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

CBS

Steelers

Ravens

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Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers +6.0(-110)

Reasoning

The two teams tied atop the AFC North heading into December meet in Baltimore on Sunday when the Ravens (6-6) host the Steelers (6-6). These teams have gone in opposite directions since late October, as Baltimore is 5-1 in the last 6 games while Pittsburgh has dropped 4 of 6 in this span. Both teams were tripped up at home last week, as Baltimore was blown out by Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night, 32-14. Pittsburgh led Buffalo, 7-3 at halftime before getting outscored in the second half 23-0 in a 26-7 defeat as 3-point underdogs.

QB Aaron Rodgers returned to the lineup for Pittsburgh after missing the Week 12 loss at Chicago with a left wrist injury. Rodgers struggled by throwing for 117 yards and completing fewer than 10 passes for the second straight game. The Steelers have taken a major step back defensively this season, ranking 28th in yards allowed at 365.1. In the past 3 road contests, Pittsburgh has given up 31, 25, and 33 points. Since winning the first 2 away games against the Jets and Patriots, the Steelers have lost 3 straight road outings.

The Ravens saw their 5-game winning streak come to a screeching halt in the 18-point loss to the Bengals. Joe Burrow returned under center for Cincinnati as the Bengals scored 32 points, more than double the average the Ravens allowed in the previous 5 games (13.4). Baltimore’s 4 previous victories came against teams with losing records. The lone victory against a winning club was against Chicago, who is tied for the best record in the NFC. The Ravens beat the Steelers twice last season by double-digits apiece after losing the previous 4 matchups.

Baltimore is 3-6 against the spread as a favorite with QB Lamar Jackson under center this season. The Ravens have proven they can beat subpar teams and the Steelers are probably in that class. However, this is a lot of points to lay with a team that has not been reliable in the favorite role.

Steelers vs Ravens prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Pittsburgh has gone on a 4-1 under run the last 5 games, but the offensive numbers have been inconsistent during this stretch. The Steelers scored 28 points with Mason Rudolph at quarterback in the loss at Chicago, but have 2 games posting 10 or fewer points in losses to the Bills and Chargers with Aaron Rodgers starting. Rodgers also led Pittsburgh to 34 and 27 outputs at home in this span, so it’s always a mystery on what this Steelers’ offense will produce. They face a Ravens team that allowed its most points since Week 5 against Houston, as Baltimore lost last Thursday to Cincinnati, 32-14. That game remained under the high total of 52.5, the second under since late October of more than 50 points.

Baltimore’s defense allowed 6 field goals and 2 touchdowns in last Thursday’s loss to Cincinnati, after not giving up more than 19 points in any of the previous 5 games. The Ravens have finished under the total in 4 of the past 5 contests, including 3 straight unders at M&T Bank Stadium. Nine of the last 10 matchups between these AFC North rivals have gone under the total with the lone over coming in Week 16 last season. Baltimore knocked off Pittsburgh, 34-17 on a 44 total, which was clinched by an interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Ravens gave up 8 scores last week against the Bengals, but only yielded 2 touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s offense is probably due for a bust out the way the season has gone and although Baltimore’s defense has been better lately, some of its competition hasn’t been stellar. This total has sunk to 42.5 points at several books and let’s take advantage of it and grab the over between the Ravens and Steelers.

Steelers vs Ravens pick: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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Kevin Rogers

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

FOX

Seahawks

Falcons

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Point Spread Pick

SEA Seahawks -7.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Seattle Seahawks find themselves tied atop the NFC West with the Rams as they prepare to visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Seattle (9-3) has won 2 in a row and gained a game this past weekend when Los Angeles was upset by Carolina. With momentum on Seattle’s side, my Seahawks vs. Falcons pick is for the visitors to win and cover. Quarterback Sam Darnold is questionable as of Wednesday, but his ankle issue is considered to be marginal at best, and his injury distinction will likely be removed well in advance of kickoff. Darnold has thrown for 2,913 yards to go along with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while frequently zeroing in on receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba — arguably the best in the sport at his position (82 receptions, 1,336 yards, 7 TDs).

On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s defense should have the upper hand over an Atlanta offense that has turned to backup Kirk Cousins under center with Michael Penix Jr. on injured reserve. With a recent injury history of his own, Cousins is well past his prime at 37 years old. Now he has a terrible matchup on his hands against a Seahawks pass defense that ranks #1 league wide in yards per attempt allowed (6.1). The ‘Hawks are also #4 in sacks with 40. That is a big problem for a quarterback who has little to no mobility. The Falcons have lost 6 of their last 7 games and look to be well on their way to another setback.

Seahawks vs Falcons prediction: Seattle Seahawks -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 44.5(-108)

Reasoning

It’s difficult to back a lot of points involving an offense being run by Cousins, so I would proceed with caution. However, this number is not a big one. As such, my Seahawks vs. Falcons pick is over 44.5. Cousins may be a shadow of his former self, but he has actually at least looked respectable in recent weeks. The Michigan State product owns a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his past 2 starts and his team scored 24 points against both the Saints and Jets. Throw Bijan Robinson — perhaps the NFL’s best running back — into the mix and Atlanta’s offense can be somewhat dangerous. Wide receiver Drake London (knee) has a good chance to return after missing the last 2 games.

It is Seattle, of course, that should do most of the heavy lifting in cashing the over. It is #4 in scoring (29.2 points per game), #9 in total offense and #9 in passing offense. The Seahawks have scored at least 26 points in 5 of their last 6 outings, a stretch that includes 38-point and 44-point performances. They now face a Falcons defense that is missing cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. and pass rusher Zach Harrison (both on injured reserve). Atlanta is #3 in sacks, but that is partly because it blitzes at one of the highest rates. Good luck with that when you are at risk of leaving Smith-Njigba in 1-on-1 coverage.

Seahawks vs Falcons prediction: Over 44.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

FOX

Titans

Browns

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Point Spread Pick

CLE Browns -4.0(-110)

Reasoning

The resistable force meets the movable object when the 1-11 Tennessee Titans make the trip to Cleveland to take on the 3-9 Browns, and the disastrous season should continue for the visitors. It’s been a rough first season for rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has not thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in any game this season and has exceeded 200 passing yards just once in his last 4 games. He now comes up against a vicious Browns defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards while posting the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. Given the Titans have allowed the most sacks this season, Ward should be running for his life throughout this matchup. Tennessee’s offense has been totally anemic, scoring more than 20 points just once in its last 7 games, and given how stingy this Cleveland D has been, it’s hard to see the Titans having much success at all putting points on the board.

The Browns should win this one, but will they be good enough on offense to cover? They managed just 8 points against the 49ers last week, but Shedeur Sanders has at least been serviceable in his 2 starts while Quinshon Judkins has been hot in recent weeks. That spells bad news for a Titans defense that has allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns, while through the air they’re allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt. Tennessee has allowed 25+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and this matchup should see the Browns moving the chains with a lot more ease than the Titans. Take Cleveland to win and cover.

Titans vs Browns prediction: Cleveland Browns -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 34.0(-110)

Reasoning

This is one of the lowest totals we’ve seen all season, but it arguably still isn’t low enough. As covered in the spread writeup, this Titans offense has been abysmal all season, and now has to come up against a Browns defense it matches up incredibly poorly with. Tennessee has scored 14 points or fewer in 5 of its last 7 games, and this Browns defense is arguably among the best units the Titans will come up against. Given that Cam Ward is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL and the Browns have delivered 43 this season, he should be running for his life all game. However, it’s worth noting that despite his poor play this season, Ward has thrown only 6 interceptions and has posted a clean game in each of his last 4 starts. That should at least help Tennessee avoid any costly turnovers to give Cleveland good field position.

As for the Browns, Shedeur Sanders has been solid but is still struggling to get the ball downfield regularly, instead relying on Cleveland’s run game. The hosts have put up 20 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games, with the only outlier being a 24-10 win over the Raiders. We should see the Titans offense struggle much like the Raiders did, but I do expect Tennessee to show more defensive mettle than Las Vegas. It’s a low number, but let’s still roll with the under.

Titans vs Browns pick: Under 34 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 33.5.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

FOX

Commanders

Vikings

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Money Line Pick

WAS Commanders Win(+110)

Reasoning

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a disastrous performance last weekend as they prepare to host the Washington Commanders in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Playing with someone named Max Brosmer at quarterback, Minnesota got shut out by Seattle 26-0. J.J. McCarthy was in the NFL’s concussion protocol and Carson Wentz is out for the season, so head coach Kevin O’Connell did not really have any other option. Brosmer, an undrafted rookie, completed only 19 of 30 passes for an anemic 126 yards with zero touchdowns and a whopping 4 interceptions – 1 of which was returned for a touchdown. McCarthy is expected to be back under center this weekend, but even he has been terrible in what has been his first professional season. As such, my Commanders vs Vikings pick is the visitors on the money line.

It is true that Washington is nothing special, but at least it is being competitive. The Commanders have lost back-to-back overtime affairs with the Dolphins (16-13) and Broncos (27-26). Minnesota has lost its last 2 contests by a combined score of 49-6. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. I expect that trend to continue, but let’s not even bother with the 1.5 points. Washington has a great chance to win outright.

Commanders vs Vikings prediction: Commanders ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-112)

Reasoning

Washington has been dealing with a quarterback carousel of its own, with Jayden Daniels having dealt with multiple injuries throughout the 2025 campaign. A dislocated elbow is what has sidelined the former Heisman Trophy winner since Week 9, but he reportedly has a chance to play on Sunday. How good of a chance is up for debate — but certainly not a great one. Whatever the case, either Marcus Mariota or a banged-up Daniels will be under center for head coach Dan Quinn’s squad. Either situation is not particularly ideal. Mariota has been unspectacular in 6 starts this year, with 1,349 yards through the air to go along with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

For the Vikings, McCarthy would obviously be superior to Brosmer — but that’s not exactly saying a lot! McCarthy, who is basically a rookie since he missed all of 2024 due to a torn ACL, has been awful. His completion percentage stands at 54.1 and he has a ridiculous 4 more interceptions (10) than TD passes (6). Minnesota isn’t going to get shut out because Washington’s defense is much worse than Seattle’s, but there is no reason to have any confidence in an offense led by McCarthy… or Brosmer, for that matter.

Commanders vs Vikings pick: Under 42.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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4:05 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

CBS

Broncos

Raiders

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Point Spread Pick

LV Raiders +7.5(-110)

Reasoning

We appear to have a major mismatch on our hands on Sunday in the AFC West when the Denver Broncos head to Las Vegas for a date with the reeling Raiders. Despite the fact that Las Vegas has just 2 wins on the season, the Raiders played a bit better against the Chargers a week ago, and they just covered against this same Broncos team in the previous meeting between these teams this season. Denver was a 9.5-point home favorite back on November 6 and nearly lost that game outright, as the Broncos mustered just 10 points in that matchup. When you adjust for the loss of home field (a fairly significant edge for the Broncos in the first meeting) this is a line that I make around Denver -6, so it’s hard to pass up the value we’re perceivably getting with Las Vegas as a home underdog of over a touchdown.

On one hand, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in football and shouldn’t be expected to score much on this excellent Denver defense. However, despite their gaudy record, I’m still not buying the Broncos offense, as Denver has been a pretty middling unit all season long despite facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses. That won’t be the case against a Las Vegas defense that fared very well against Nix in the first meeting between these teams, and the Raiders’ zone looks flummoxed the young Denver quarterback throughout that contest. There’s no reason to believe that Denver should be laying over a touchdown in this spot, especially since the Broncos haven’t covered the spread in this situation (road favorite of over a touchdown) at any point this season. Denver thrives in close games, but it also finds itself in a lot of 1-score games for a reason. Therefore, while the Raiders have been miserable for the majority of the campaign, I’ll back an ugly ‘dog to keep things within one possession on Sunday.

Broncos vs Raiders prediction: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 40.5(-110)

Reasoning

Regardless of which team comes out on top in Las Vegas, the under is my preferred way to attack the total on Sunday. Even after moving on from offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders offense is still absolutely miserable, and I can’t imagine that changes all that much against a Broncos defense that is among the league’s best in terms of generating pressure on the quarterback. On the other side of things, Bo Nix struggled mightily against Las Vegas’ zone concepts in the first meeting between these teams, and Denver has historically had problems with starting slow all season long. Look for this game to end in the 30s, even if the Broncos go on to win and cover the number.

Broncos vs Raiders prediction: Under 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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4:25 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

FOX

Bears

Packers

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

GB Packers -6.5(-115)

Reasoning

The two oldest rivals in the NFL have plenty on the line this Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC North heading into Week 14 and will visit the Packers (8-3-1), who are playing their third consecutive division foe. Green Bay has passed the first two tests, handling Minnesota at home, 23-6, followed by a 31-24 triumph at Detroit as 3-point underdogs on Thanksgiving. Now, the Packers look for the trifecta to pass the Bears for first place in the division.

Chicago has been impressive in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 9 of the last 10 games. During this span, the Bears have won 6 games by 5 points or less, but put together a strong road effort in the 24-15 Black Friday victory at Philadelphia as 7.5-point underdogs. The Bears have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 opportunities in the underdog role. These teams will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, and both matchups last season were decided by a combined 3 points. Green Bay won at Chicago, 20-19 as 6-point underdogs, but the Bears knocked off the Packers in the season finale at Lambeau, 24-22 as 10.5-point dogs.

Two of the worst offensive efforts for Green Bay came at home against Carolina and Philadelphia in consecutive losses in early November. The Packers combined for 20 points in those defeats, but Green Bay has averaged 27.0 ppg in the past 3 victories. Green Bay went through a 1-7 ATS slump before picking up covers against Minnesota and Detroit. In last Thursday’s win over the Lions, the Pack were paced by QB Jordan Love’s 4 TD passes, his 6th multi-touchdown performance of the season. Interestingly enough, Love has not thrown a touchdown pass in Green Bay’s last 3 home games. Let’s look at backing the Packers here to pass the Bears for first in the NFC North with a home victory.

Bears vs Packers prediction: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 44.5(-110)

Reasoning

Chicago has been one of the top over teams in the NFL this season at 8-4, although 3 of the last 4 games have finished under the total. The Bears’ defense has stepped up during this stretch, allowing 20 or fewer points 3 times, including in road wins at Philadelphia and Minnesota. Chicago will look to slow down Green Bay on Sunday, who scored 31 points in last Thursday’s triumph at Detroit.

The Packers’ offense hasn’t been particularly dynamic recently at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has combined for 43 points in the past 3 home games and scored exactly 27 points in each of its first 3 home victories. Head coach Matt LaFleur’s squad has not seen an over cash at home this season, going 5-0-1 to the under. On the road, the Packers are 6-1 to the over, so clearly this team has established a style at Lambeau and away from it. Green Bay and its opponents have not combined for more than 45 points in any of its 6 home games, as Sunday’s total sits at 44.5.

The Bears rushed for 281 yards in last Friday’s 24-15 victory at Philadelphia, including 100+ yard performances from Kyle Monangai (130) and D’Andre Swift (125). Chicago faces the 8th-ranked rushing defense from a yards per game standpoint as Green Bay has allowed 98.3 yards on the ground this season. During this 5-game winning streak, QB Caleb Williams has thrown 8 TDs and 1 INT, while throwing 1 TD in the two games against the Packers in 2024. Chicago leads the NFL with 17 interceptions and a +17 turnover ratio, while Green Bay QB Jordan Love has been picked off only 3 times. As Green Bay has struggled to score at home, let’s take the under here in this crucial division battle.

Bears vs Packers pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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4:25 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

FOX

Rams

Cardinals

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Point Spread Pick

LA Rams -8.0(-110)

Reasoning

Hell hath no fury like a Super Bowl favorite scorned. The Rams had won 6 straight and were clear favorites to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy heading into Week 13, but were rocked by a 31-28 upset against the Carolina Panthers. While LA remains at the top of the Super Bowl betting market, that defeat will no doubt have irked Sean McVay and quarterback Matt Stafford, who will be looking to get back on track in a big way and should deliver a statement win over the Cardinals. Stafford has already been phenomenal this season, throwing 32 touchdowns (by far the most in the NFL) to just 4 interceptions, with 2+ TD passes in 8 of his last 9 games. He should be able to carve through a Cardinals defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL against the pass.

Despite being 3-9, Arizona has actually been fairly competitive at times this season, pushing playoff contenders Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Green Bay and Indianapolis all the way while also picking up a surprise win over the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. While the Cardinals offense has been solid behind Jacoby Brissett, their turnstile defense is what has let them down, allowing 27+ points in 5 of their last 7 games. Given how red hot the Rams are this season and the desire of Stafford, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams to right last week’s wrong, expect LA to earn a big victory over Arizona.

Rams vs Cardinals prediction: Rams -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 47.5(-110)

Reasoning

Given the strength of the Rams’ offense this season and the fact that the Cardinals have actually been quite positive in moving the ball lately, this total looks a touch too low. LA has put up 34+ points in 4 of their last 6 games and now gets to take on an Arizona team that has allowed 41+ in 2 of its last 4 games, in addition to allowing Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence to throw 3 touchdown passes in that period. That doesn’t set up well for a defense about to welcome an angry Matt Stafford desperate to muscle his way back to the top of the MVP betting board, especially with the Patriots on a bye. Defenses have had no answer for the Puka Nacua-Davante Adams tandem, and that is unlikely to change here.

While LA’s defense has been solid, it has been prone to allowing points in recent weeks. Giving up 31 to the Panthers last week as Bruce Young threw 3 TD passes highlighted some of the Rams’ vulnerability on that side of the ball, while the 49ers twice put 26 on them. The Cardinals have posted the 5th-most passing yards in the NFL this season, so Brissett and company should have some success moving the ball and putting points on the board. With both teams capable of scoring, let’s ride the over in this one.

Rams vs Cardinals pick: Over 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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8:20 PM ET

Sun Dec 7

NBC

Texans

Chiefs

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Point Spread Pick

HOU Texans +3.5(-115)

Reasoning

Thirteen weeks into the season and most NFL pundits wouldn’t have guessed that the Texans would have the better record in this matchup. At 7-5, Houston is again a threat in the AFC South due to Colts’ recent stumble (lost 3 of their past 4), including last Sunday’s loss to the very Texans squad. That means there will be no lack of focus or effort for a Texans’ squad that’s playing their best football of the season entering Week 14.

Houston has won 4 straight and it’s mostly because of its defense. At this point, they need no introduction, but it’s not a stretch to say that Houston’s defense is the best the NFL has to offer — a unit that’s allowed more than 300 yards just 3 times this season.

The Texans’ offense has done enough, averaging 338 yards per contest during their 4-game winning streak. Stoic performances by Davis Mills and the recent return of CJ Stroud have provided the Texans’ with enough production every week, considering their defense always limits the enemy offense. Rookie running back Woody Marks, who’s getting more touches every week (19 carries for 64 yards in Week 13) has provided more consistency on the ground, too.

Kansas City is getting maligned by the media again and it’s for a good reason. Although Patrick Mahomes’ magic is always prevalent, and at times the Chiefs’ offense looks like it always has, it’s reminding us more of Josh Allen’s situation (and not in a good way). Mahomes has to do too much to keep his offense afloat, a group that’s simply not as talented and not as steady as former iterations. That’s especially true up front. Mahomes has been sacked 3 or more times in his past 5 starts. Kansas City’s defense is struggling too. The Chiefs are 20th in total defensive EPA, and allowed Dak Prescott’s offense to drop 457 yards on them last week. Houston is not Dallas, but there’s certainly cause for concern in Chiefs-land. At 6-6, no team is on alert, but they have a favorable schedule (three home games and road spots at TEN/LV) remaining.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs are notoriously buttoned up in December, going 4-0 in 3 out of 5 previous seasons (the other two: 3-1, 1-3). But this isn’t the same Chiefs’ team, certainly not according to nearly every metric and qualifier. Houston’s first-class defense is enough to keep them in this game, even if their offense mostly sputters.

Texans vs Chiefs SNF prediction: Houston Texans +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Unsurprisingly The Texans’ defense ranks 1st overall in opponent points (16.5) and yards (265.7) per game, and the Texans are top-2 in preventing third down conversions (33.77%). Needless to say, the Chiefs’ offense will face challenges on Sunday night. Overall Kansas City still qualifies as a top-tier operation, ranking #1 in overall EPA metrics, including top-4 marks in EPA per pass and EPA per rush. Those metrics are mostly due to a generational quarterback talent and one of the greatest playcallers in NFL history, a duo that’s been at the top since they joined forces seven years ago. But the Chiefs are not without their flaws.

Mahomes is getting sacked more than he ever has in his career, 27 times in just 12 games. Against good defenses he’s also been limited, throwing for just 240 yards per game and a lowly 61% completion percentage against the Chargers, Eagles, and Broncos. The Texans’ defense is the best or one of the best in nearly every conceivable metric against the pass, including a #1 rank in defensive EPA per pass and top-3 marks in opponent yards per pass (6.3) and completion percentage (58.4%). It doesn’t help that the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has grossly underperformed this year, is all banged up. Three out of 5 linemen are questionable, 2 are trending in the wrong direction. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been a middling operation all season, ranked 15th in yards per rush (4.4). Houston is just as stingy in run-defense, too (3rd in opponent rush yards per game).

We haven’t talked much about the Texans’ offense because we don’t believe we need to. CJ Stroud has been good, not great, and as a group they average 21.9 points per game (21st). At Arrowhead Stadium on a cold, blustery night, we don’t like their chances to overperform against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, especially after their poor outing last week. There’s only one way we can look here.

Texans vs Chiefs best bet: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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8:15 PM ET

Mon Dec 8

ESPN

Eagles

Chargers

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Point Spread Pick

LA Chargers +3.0(-110)

Reasoning

As if losing to the Cowboys in Week 12 wasn’t enough, Philadelphia followed that up with a home loss to the Bears this past Friday. In the process, they looked worse than they have all season. Generating just 6.2 yards per play and converting just 4 out of 12 third downs, another lackluster performance by Saquon Barkley juxtaposed 2 turnovers from Jalen Hurts, who went just 19-34 for 230 yards. Even more startling, the Eagles possessed the ball for only 20 minutes and 42 seconds, just one-third of total game-time.

Perhaps even more surprising was their defense, a group that had been holding up their roster for weeks on end and finally capitulated. The Bears ran it down their throat for all 4 quarters, gaining 281 yards on the ground and 425 total. Chicago correspondingly gained 28 first downs, doubling Philadelphia. Radio personalities in the City of Brotherly Love are anything but loving after that performance, and the Eagles are now a main topic of discussion in the national media. It all feels very 2023, a season where the Eagles completely sputtered at the end of the year, losing 5 of their last 6 games. We wouldn’t be surprised if the exact same thing happened here. Without a formidable rushing attack and top-tier play-calling, Hurts is not the kind of quarterback who can carry his team.

The Chargers had an easy breezy win in Week 13, blowing by the Raiders at home. Beating up on Vegas is hardly an indication of a return to top-form for any program, but it was a nice response after their bye-week. Defensively they’re still among the best, 7th overall in defensive EPA. Offensively LAC remains a middling program, ranked 16th in offensive EPA, and now they’re concerned for Justin Herbert. He had surgery on his left hand on Monday and he’s considered day-to-day. In general, the Chargers have played poorly against great teams, but we can hardly consider the Eagles “great” at this juncture.

The Monday night total is very low and the spread indicates this will probably be a close game. The combination suggests neither offense will pull away, which is largely what we’ve seen this season. The Bolts don’t have much of a home-field advantage, but the ability to stay home for a full week and rest before a big opponent is surely preferable. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will travel across the country and experience the lag of a 3-hour time difference. The Chargers could easily be the favorite in this game, so we have no other choice here.

Eagles vs Chargers MNF prediction: Los Angeles Chargers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 40.5(-110)

Reasoning

A very low total is very appropriate for these struggling offenses. We’ll start with the Eagles, although their transgressions are well documented at this point.

After a fast 4-0 start, Philly’s production has slowed down mightily. Since Week 5, they’ve only eclipsed 340 yards in 2 out of 8 contests, and rarely do they have a big game on the ground. Saquon Barkley and his backfield teammates just don’t produce much, good for only 4 yards per carry (24th). Since Week 5, they’ve only eclipsed the century mark 3 times.

That puts a ton of pressure on Jalen Hurts, who’s not built for such a role. We’re not suggesting he hasn’t done great things, but year after year Philly has endured turnover in offensive coordinators, a result that’s finally starting to affect them. Kevin Patullo, who has limited experience in the role, is certainly starting to show his naivete. Philadelphia’s offense ranks just 14th in total EPA, and on Monday they’ll be combating one of the NFL’s best defenses.

The Chargers’ offense isn’t exactly prolific, either. A burgeoning rushing attack has helped keep them afloat. If you take out a very poor all-around outing at Jacksonville back in Week 11, the Chargers ran for 645 yards in their past 4 games. Justin Herbert’s surgery on his non-throwing hand is cause for concern, but LAC’s passing attack hasn’t been stellar either way. They rank 18th in EPA per pass and average 7.2 yards per pass (14th), but lately it’s regressed further. In his last 5 starts, Herbert has thrown for 212, 212, 199, 93, and 149. Woof.

This has “old-school defensive battle” written all over it.

Eagles vs Chargers pick: Under 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through week 13 of the 2025 season our team of NFL handicappers have made against the spread and totals picks for every game. with 105 wins (and 2 pushes) our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks against the spread have scored +21.7 units of profit so far this season.

Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
105	2	85	+21.7

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

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We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

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Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

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