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NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +32.9 units profit, from 255 winning NFL picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 17, highlighted by three divisional games on Christmas day. Cowboys vs Commanders, Lions vs Vikings & Broncos vs Chiefs, All of which will be live on Netflix.

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Los Angeles Rams
Atlanta Falcons
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Point Spread PickBest Bet
LA Rams -8.0(-110)

In yet another heartbreaking loss, the 11-4 Rams looked like the better team for the majority of their Week 16 contest last Thursday. Los Angeles accrued 581 total yards and 26 first downs on one of the best defenses in the NFL, but their rival never gave up. Seattle benefited from a 58-yard punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed that brought them within distance late. Then an embattled Sam Darnold, who threw 2 interceptions in the rematch, took advantage of the opportunity and tied it up to force overtime. 

Even in overtime, Matthew Stafford and the Rams went right down the field to score a touchdown. The Seahawks answered, though, and then cashed in a victory with a 2-point conversion with only 3 minutes left in extra time. Like many of their losses this season, the Rams could have easily been the victor last Thursday, and we still consider Sean McVay’s program among the best in the NFL. This Monday night, they’ll have an opportunity to exact revenge.

There wasn’t anything particularly exciting or intriguing about the Falcons’ win this past Sunday, especially considering their opponent. Nonetheless, Atlanta earned their 2nd straight victory in Week 16, rallying and rushing for 152 yards on a proud Cardinals defense. The revival of Kirk Cousins continues, although it certainly came with some tribulation. Cousins lost a fumble early and threw an interception late in the contest, but ultimately, a consistent rushing attack and good enough defense kept the Falcons afloat. It’s worth noting that they only gained 4.7 yards per play against a defense that ranks 24th in advanced EPA metrics.

The Rams’ defense will look to respond after what they permitted last Thursday. As a team, they have not lost consecutive games all season. And after a loss, they’ve only won by margin. In 3 prior cases, they beat the Colts by 7, the Ravens by 14, and the Cardinals by 28. Two of those 3 games were on the road. A long trip out to Atlanta isn’t ideal when you’re a West Coast program, but the Rams can still win their division and capture the NFC’s #1 seed, particularly since Seattle has 2 very tough games remaining (at Carolina, at San Francisco). This number could be inflated even more and we wouldn’t look away. It’s Rams or nothing.

Rams vs Falcons best bet: Rams -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 50.0(-110)

At this point of the season, we have almost no trust in the Atlanta defense. A group that was once top-5 in almost every category at the beginning of its campaign, the Falcons’ defense has regressed more and more as the year’s gone on. They sit at a respectable 16th overall in advanced EPA metrics, but against the run they’re a lowly 27th, allowing a putrid 4.6 yards per carry. Against exceptional offenses this can be a real problem. For example, the Falcons allowed the 49ers to run for 174, the Colts for 323, and the Seahawks, who are not a top-tier rushing team (21st in rush yards per game), for 129. All 3 contests resulted in losses and plenty of scoring for their opponents (88 combined points). The Rams are prolific on the ground (9th in yards per rush) and through the air (3rd in yards per pass), so this sets up for another game where their offense can hum, with or without Davante Adams (early reports suggest he’ll miss Week 17).

The total will likely be decided when the Falcons have the ball, and we don’t have much confidence in Raheem Morris’ group in that regard, either. Kirk Cousins has had some nice games since he took over the starting role for the Falcons, but in every case, it came against cupcake defenses. When Cousins and company faced a top unit (Seattle in Week 14), the results were much different: 15 points, 274 total yards. 

Advanced metrics tell us that the Rams, despite their Week 16 mistakes, remain a top defense, ranked 6th overall and allowing just 19.9 points per game (also 6th overall). After last Thursday’s performance and considering what’s on the line, we expect far better results this Monday. A total this high suggests that both offenses will realize considerable success, but we can’t agree with that notion. Our projections have this closer to 45-46, so we’ll side with fewer points in this NFC affair.

Rams vs Falcons MNF pick: Under 50 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through week 16 of the 2025 season our team of NFL handicappers have made against the spread and totals picks for every game. with 255 wins (and 3 pushes) our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks have scored +32.9 units of profit so far this season.

NFL PickWinsPushLossesProfit (betting units)
Sides (Moneyline/ATS)1292106+25.3
Totals (Over / Under)1261111+7.6
Total2553217+32.9

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

  • The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
  • Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
  • Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

  • Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
  • Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
  • Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

  • Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
  • Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
  • Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule 

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season. 

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

 

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.