Against the Spread Pick
The first of three Thanksgiving NFL games here as the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears. Not exactly a marquee matchup. It might not be pretty, but you have to take the Bears here. Detroit is falling apart, and Matt Patricia looks like he’s lost the locker room. The Lions lost to the lowly Redskins in their most recent game, and Jeff Driskel isn’t going to do much here. Mitch Trubisky should be able to game-manage his way to a victory, and the Bears technically still have something to play for. Detroit has virtually nothing going for them at the moment, and I think they’ll be more focused on what they are having for Thanksgiving dinner after the game than this contest. UPDATE 11/27: David Blough will now start at quarterback for Detroit and the line has moved to Bears -4.5. I still lean Bears, Blough will find it difficult to pass the ball against a Bears secondary which ranks seventh in defensive pass efficiency.
Over Under Pick
The real play I like here though is the under. This number is already low, but it’s not low enough. Both of these offenses and quarterbacks are inept, and you should be seeing a ton of punts here as you await your Thanksgiving dinner. Trubisky has regressed considerably this year, and he is also going to be without his starting right tackle Bobby Massie after he went down with an ankle injury this past week. Driskel was horrendous this past week against the Redskins and tossed three interceptions while taking six sacks, and I don’t see how he gets any better here against a defense that is still one of the league’s best units. Chicago held Daniel Jones to just 150 yards on 36 attempts last Sunday, so I don’t see them giving up much here. This one should be a snoozefest, and I don’t see either side clearing 20 points.