NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +13 units of profit, from 159 winning picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 11, highlighted by Jets vs Patriots on Thursday night football, Lions vs Eagles on SNF and Monday Night football, featuring Cowboys vs Raiders.

There’s also the first ever NFL Madrid game, as the Commanders and Dolphins face-off at the Santiago Bernabeu and several divisional matchups, including Chiefs vs Broncos & Seahawks vs Rams, promise an action packed week 11.

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

DAL Cowboys -3.5(-110)

Reasoning

Last Thursday night the Raiders were part of one of the worst NFL games in history, and that’s not a subjective comment. The Broncos and Raiders each earned just 10 first downs. Combined they only gained 408 total yards, averaging just 3.2 (LV) and 3.9 (DEN) yards per play. It was a mess of a game, and frankly there’s not much we can glean from it. Sure, Vegas’ defense played well and held the Broncos to just 10 points and forced two interceptions, but Denver is also known to play down to its competition. Just ask the Jets, Giants and Texans. In totality, the Raiders’ defense qualifies as very average. They allow 24.4 points per game (20th) and 320.8 yards per game (15th), which we think will be a huge problem in their Week 11 matchup. It’s especially a problem considering how mediocre the Raiders’ offense is, a group that ranks 26th in EPA per pass and 32nd in EPA per rush.

The Cowboys are the more flawed defense in this matchup (30th in EPA per pass and EPA per rush), but they are a far better offense. Dallas’ last outing was their worst from an offensive standpoint, generating just 333 yards (far from poor but still well below their standards) and 17 points in a loss against the Cardinals. Even with that loss and regression, they remain one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL (378.4 yards per game, 4th).

Coming off a bye week, the Cowboys’ roster had to endure more than the memory of defeat. Beloved second year defensive end Marshawn Kneeland passed away due to mental health issues just a few days after their Week 9 loss, heavy and unexpected news that Cowboy players and coaches had to contemplate throughout their break. And while it may seem distasteful to weigh the effect of a player’s death as part of a handicap, it is something that objectively occurred and we must consider. In this case, we feel strongly that the Cowboys, who are led by a quarterback whose brother passed away under the same circumstances, come out on absolute fire for their fallen comrade. Dallas is a team built by offense, although it made a splash by trading for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson and star interior lineman Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. Combined with their poor performance in Week 9, we project to see the best version of the Cowboys and the Raiders struggling to keep up.

Cowboys vs Raiders best bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 50.0(-110)

Reasoning

Our handicap of this game is constructed on the premise of the Cowboys’ offensive success, which we are bullish about, which means we also have very strong feelings about the total. The Raiders’ offense hasn’t been close to average in most categories this season but they’ve also faced plenty of elite defenses. In nine games we’ve counted six defenses they’ve battled that we consider in the top-tier: NE, LAC, IND, KC, JAX, and DEN. The Cowboys cannot be compared to those groups. In fact, Dallas has consistently performed below average, even when they’ve faced poor offenses. For example, when clashing with the Giants, Jets, and Panthers, they permitted 89 combined points (or 29.7 points per game). Dallas decided to trade draft capital to land a few key components they need on defense before the trade deadline, but it’s not enough to completely flip their efficacy and hide their flaws. Geno Smith and company can get to 20 points or close in this contest, which is plenty if we like the over.

On the other side, the Raiders’ defense is a better unit, top-5 in opponent yards per carry (3.8) and top-11 in opponent yards per pass (6.9), but we’re throwing out those stats for this showdown. Firstly, when Vegas took on better offenses, they didn’t look very good at all. The Commanders, Bears, Colts, Chiefs and Jaguars scored an outrageous 167 combined points on them (good for 33.4 points per game). Vegas’ main achilles heel on defense is how poor they are at getting to the quarterback, ranked 25th in sack rate (5.7%). And as we’ve seen time and time again, giving Dak Prescott time to throw, especially with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens running around in the open field, is a recipe for disaster. On both sides, points are coming.

Cowboys vs Raiders prediction: Over 50 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Same Game Parlay Pick

D. Prescott 240+ pass yds & C. Lamb 6+ recs(-105)

Reasoning

The lines for this Dallas offense are not where I wanted them to be in order to pull the trigger on a 1u base line. Preferably, I’d get Lamb at over 6.5 receptions for plus-money odds and it’s at -131. For Dak, I’d want him at 251.5 passing yards, but he’s 255.5 on most books.

For both, the matchup is very much in their favor. Lamb is targeted at the 17th-highest rate in the league amongst WRs against zone coverage and the Raiders play zone at the 3rd-highest rate in the league according to PFF. This trend carries over into Prescott’s success against zone coverage, ranking 2nd in efficiency and owns PFF’s 5th-highest grade against single-high coverage shells, which Las Vegas runs at the 7th-highest rate in the league. It’s unfortunate we’re not over even money on this, but considering the outcomes are correlated, I feel comfortable taking -105 on this Cowboys vs Raiders player prop parlay.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

C. Lamb (DAL) to score a TD(+115)

Reasoning

Aside from an injury that kept him out of 3 games through the first half of the season, CeeDee Lamb is putting together another monster year and is primed to have a massive 2nd half of the season. Before the Cowboys’ bye week, Lamb reeled in 7 of 12 targets on Monday Night Football for 85 yards. He’s scored a TD in just 1 game this season, but his team-leading 23.5% team target share is encouraging enough to back him at plus-money — especially with a Cowboys implied team total of 26.5 points.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

J. Bech (LV) to score a TD(+1100)

Reasoning

Let’s dive into the Raiders’ offensive side of the football against a woeful Cowboys defense that is allowing a touchdown on nearly 70% of drives that enter the red zone. Offensive leaders Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers are -145 and +100 to find the end zone, so we’ll pivot to rookie wide receiver Jake Bech at +950. Bech wasn’t used nearly enough as many anticipated last week on TNF against the Broncos. Instead, it was Tyler Lockett who saw 57% of the snaps with the departure of Jakobi Meyers. Nonetheless, we’ll hope the rookie Bech gets more usage off an extended week of practice and is worth taking a shot on at +1100 odds.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

DAL Cowboys -5.5

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

G. Pickens (DAL) to score a TD

Player Passing Yards

G. Smith (LV) - Over 231.5 pass yds

Reasoning

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 alternate spread over Las Vegas Raiders (+114)

This is a fantastic value spot for the Cowboys. They are coming off a bye week and are being mispriced on the road in a venue that is not difficult to play in – especially not when the Raiders have long since been eliminated (albeit not mathematically) from playoff contention. Moreover, Las Vegas is in the midst of a 3-game losing streak – during which it is averaging 12.0 points per contest. The Raiders’ most recent outing against the Broncos set offensive football back several decades – if not more. They combined for a mere 10 first downs in Denver’s 10-7 victory, and Las Vegas averaged a mere 3.2 yards per play.

I don’t care how bad the Cowboys’ defense is; it’s hard to see the Raiders’ offense being able to keep up in this contest. Moreover, Dallas’ defense should be improved to at least some extent from what it was prior to the trade deadline. New acquisitions Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams will make their Cowboy debuts on Monday Night Football.

George Pickens to score a touchdown (+150)

Pickens has gone 3 straight contests without scoring a touchdown. It’s time for him to get back on the horse. I’m not a big fan of the “he’s due” argument, but it is fair to say that a 3-game stretch without a TD is certainly an aberration as opposed to the rule for Pickens. After all, the Georgia product had previously found the end zone in 5 consecutive outings – scoring a total of 6 touchdowns in those 5. He should be able to resume his scoring ways at the expense of a mediocre Las Vegas defense that is 21st league-wide in scoring at 24.4 points per game allowed.

Geno Smith Over 231.5 passing yards (-111)

The likely game script – especially the one in this SGP that calls for Dallas to win by at least a touchdown – has Las Vegas playing from behind most of if not all the way and therefore being forced to air it out. On sheer volume alone, Smith should be able to exceed this 231.5 number. The former West Virginia standout has attempted at least 34 passes 4 times this season, including 39 in Week 9 against Jacksonville (which he parlayed into 284 yards and 4 touchdowns). Smith now faces a Cowboys defense that is horrendous against the pass. It is 29th in passing defense (254.4 yards per game allowed) and 2nd-to-last in yards per attempt allowed (8.2).

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through the first ten weeks of the 2025 season our team of NFL handicappers have made against the spread and totals picks for every game, with 159 wins (and 2 pushes) our record speaks for itself. Across these markets our expert NFL picks have scored +13 units of profit so far this season.

Total NFL Picks	Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
296	159	2	135	+13

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.