NFL Picks

Money Line Pick

GB Packers Win(+125)

Reasoning

Thanksgiving Day features a trio of excellent NFL games, and one of the most consequential matchups of the weekend comes in the NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are set to host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which Green Bay dominated the proceedings. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense. Even in last week’s convincing win over Minnesota, Jordan Love and company were still held to less than 300 total yards of offense and largely benefitted from being plus-three in turnovers. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams. As long as the Packers can somewhat limit the effectiveness of Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, they should do a solid job of getting this Detroit offense off the field.

As for the hosts, the Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. This is not the same offense that we are used to seeing out of the Lions, and Johnson’s absence has clearly been felt in the first season with a new play-caller at the controls. On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last 2 home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions in this NFC North showdown.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Packers ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 49.5(-110)

Reasoning

While games involving Detroit at Ford Field have had the propensity to sail lover the total, this is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game given how both of these offenses have looked of late. Yes, Detroit did score 34 points against the Giants a week ago, but the offense was far from crisp and it really took a couple of tremendous individual effort plays from Jahmyr Gibbs in order to come up with pivotal touchdowns against a Giants rushing defense that is among the worst in football. The Packers present a much tougher matchup, and we saw Green Bay completely bottle up Goff, Gibbs and company earlier this season. On the other side, the Packers offense is dealing with a litany of injuries at the skill positions and Green Bay is still very much a run-first team at the moment. With that in mind, let’s look for a grind-it-out affair in this NFC North battle.

Under 49.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

B. Wright (DET) to score a TD(+320)

Reasoning

As of publication, Brock Wright is questionable heading into Thanksgiving Thursday’s matchup against the Packers. He sustained a neck injury in the 2nd quarter of last week’s win over the Giants but finished the game, playing 60 snaps against New York on Sunday. He didn’t participate in the Lions’ walkthrough on Tuesday, so his status is very much in question. Nonetheless, without Sam LaPorta for the rest of the season, Wright gets plugged into a loaded offense that scored 4 touchdowns in an overtime win last week.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

I. TeSlaa (DET) to score a TD(+500)

Reasoning

To wrap up our Packers vs Lions TD scorer best bets, we’ll back another Lions pass catcher who flies under the radar — Isaac TeSlaa, the 3rd-round rookie out of Arkansas. TeSlaa is another member of the Lions with an injury tag heading into TNF. Still, he participated in Tuesday’s walkthrough and should be another focal point of the Lions offense after playing over 40% of the snaps on Sunday.

With 4 Lions skill players, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and Jameson Williams, all having odds shorter than +200, I’m willing to take shots on an offense with an implied team total of 26 points and a total of nearly 50 points.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Player Rushing Yards Pick

J. Love (GB) - O 9.5 yds(-118)

Reasoning

The Packers do not call a whole lot of designed runs for their quarterback, but Love will probably be under duress a fair amount on Thursday – forcing him to improvise. It would be no surprise if he is forced to tuck it and run more than a few times in this matchup against Aidan Hutchinson and a Detroit defense that ranks eighth in the NFL with 32 sacks (Hutchinson has 8.5). The Lions have faced the second-most QB rushing attempts in the entire league (63), which have turned into 212 yards. Love has recorded double-digit rushing yards in 7 of the last 10 outings. Against Detroit he produced a 23-yard performance last season and a 39-yard effort during the 2023 campaign.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

B. Wright (DET) - O 23.5 yds(-110)

Reasoning

Going up against a stingy Packers defense, the Lions will probably have to do some improvising in this matchup. No matter how prolific the offense, zeroing in on the usual suspects like Amon-Ra St. Brow and Jahmyr Gibbs is unlikely to work against Green Bay for a full 60 minutes. In other words, look for Wright to enjoy a piece of the action on Thursday. With star tight end Sam LaPorta out for the season, Wright now finds himself atop the depth chart. He has been targeted 11 times over the past 2 contests, making 5 receptions for 37 yards. That includes a 29-yard effort during this past week’s hard-fought victory over the Giants. The Notre Dame product now faces a Packers defense that has surrendered the eighth-most catches to opposing tight ends in 2025 (68), which have led to 512 yards (46.5 per game).

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Vote on who will win!

4:30 PM ET

Tomorrow

CBS

Chiefs

Cowboys

Point Spread Pick

DAL Cowboys +3.5(-112)

Reasoning

The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 51.5(-110)

Reasoning

This is currently the highest total of the week, tied with a game involving the Bengals — which is always going to be a monster number regardless of who they are playing. In the case of this game, I think it’s a number slightly too large. As a result, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is under 51.5. This Kansas City offense simply is not the same as it was in recent seasons. Travis Kelce’s production is declining and the running game is borderline nonexistent. Now the Chiefs are facing a Cowboys defense that has progressed from horrendous to perhaps at least somewhat respectable. The Eagles did not score a single point over the final 41 minutes this past weekend.

Fortunately for head coach Andy Reid’s side, the defense has been solid. Kansas City ranks #8 league wide against the run (97.6 yards per game allowed) and #11 against the pass (195.4 yards). It is also #4 in scoring, allowing a mere 18.3 points per contest. Jacksonville (31 points) is the only Chiefs opponent that has reached the 30-point mark this entire year, and that was only because the Jags returned an interception 99 yards for a touchdown. There will be some offense on Thursday — but probably not to the extent that a 51.5 number suggests.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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8:20 PM ET

Tomorrow

NBC

Bengals

Ravens

Point Spread Pick

CIN Bengals +6.5(+100)

Reasoning

The Ravens eked out another win, their 5th straight, and with it reclaimed the top spot in the AFC North. A month-plus of nonstop victories is impressive, but they’re still leaving plenty to be desired. For example, their 5 straight wins came without a single game in which Lamar Jackson threw over 200 yards. Their rushing has been far more consistent and remains one of the best operations in the NFL (fifth in yards per carry, averaging 4.9), which is what we’ve been used to from John Harbaugh’s regime.

Defensively, we’re more impressed. Besides the Bears, who rank 9th in total offensive EPA, the Ravens’ defense has benefitted from an easy slate of opponents over the last 5 weeks. They’re still doing their jobs, and during the current winning streak, they’ve kept enemy offenses to just 307.6 yards per game — a far cry from the 380.3 yards per game they allowed in 6 previous battles. Still, we have yet to see the Ravens’ defense against an above-average offense. That won’t be the case on Thursday.

On the Bengals’ side, it’s all about Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is obviously one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead-last in total defensive EPA. Against the run, they rank 29th, which is even more concerning against the Ravens (156 opponent rush yards per game, 31st). But there’s a reality in which the Bengals can hang around if their star quarterback returns, a guy who instantly changes the mood of the entire franchise. At 3-8 and with very low chances of making a playoff run, we questioned whether Zac Taylor and the Bengals’ brass would let that happen. Despite our doubts, as of Monday reports from Cincinnati say the All-Pro will play, and he’ll be joined by fellow All-Pro Ja’Marr Chase, who’s coming off a suspension.

At first glance this seemed like an auto-bet on Baltimore but now we think it’s anything but. What opened as a -10.5-point spread is now down to -6.5 and for good reason. Other than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Burrow is as valuable as any single player. We like the Bengals’ extra juice from #9’s return to give us a close contest.

Bengals vs Ravens prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 51.5(-110)

Reasoning

Recent history suggests this is going to be a really high-scoring game. It’s tough for us to refute that. Of course, the Ravens’ defense has certainly played better over 5-game their winning streak, allowing just 13.4 points per game. They also haven”t played anybody. The Bears have some good statistics (top-10 in offensive EPA), but they weren’t exactly shut down, gaining 372 total yards and just failing to convert in the red-zone. Their other opponents were all bottom-third operations.

We don’t need to mention the Baltimore offense, since at any point they’re gifted enough and surely dominant enough on the ground to score points. They average 25 per game, a top-10 mark, and the Bengals will still be without Trey Hendrickson, easily their best defensive player.

This total will be decided on the shoulders of Burrow, who allegedly (according to Tee Higgins), looks phenomenal in practice. Tee is out for this showdown (concussion), but the return of Ja’Marr Chase — who we imagine will be fired up and vengeful after a 1-game suspension — is a huge differentiator for their offense (79 receptions, 861 yards, both top-5 overall marks). Burrow and Chase competed together at LSU in their heyday, a duo that can completely take over a contest.

Baltimore won last week, but might’ve lost Kyle Hamilton in the process. The safety, arguably their best defensive player, incurred an ankle injury last week against New England.

This is an AFC North rivalry, so there’s always a chance the defense plays over their heads and the hitting’s a bit harder. Fortunately we wager on probabilities, and the market is trending in 1 direction for good reason.

Bengals vs Ravens pick: Over 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Same Game Parlay Pick

M. Gesicki (CIN) & I. Likely (BAL) - 25+ rec yds(+170)

Reasoning

Your timeline will be flooded with all the big-name guys for the Thanksgiving slate: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. You do not need me to share a play on those guys in essentially a primetime slot. However, if I can indulge you in a small tight end SGP for the late game, then I’ll have reduced your exposure in the event one of those guys flops.

Mike Gesicki is going to jump in the pecking order for Cincinnati on TNF with Tee Higgins out of the lineup and playing a Baltimore defense ranked 6th in man-coverage rate. According to PFF, Gesicki sees a big boost in his production against man defense compared to zone, and he saw the 3rd-most targets for the Bengals in the first 2 weeks of the season with Burrow under center.

For Baltimore, I’m going with Isaiah Likely, who’s had a consistent 55%+ snap rate dating back to Week 5. The Bengals defense ranks last in yards allowed per coverage snap to opposing TEs and I think Likely is an under-the-radar play this week. Since this is an SGP, I’m going with 0.75u.

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3:00 PM ET

Fri Nov 28

Amazon Prime Video

Bears

Eagles

Point Spread Pick

CHI Bears +7.0(-115)

Reasoning

Philadelphia finally paid for its transgressions. After going up 21-0 in Dallas this past weekend, the Eagles allowed their rival to score 24 unanswered points en-route to victory. It was a microcosm of the their many flaws, inefficiencies that haven’t kept them from winning until Week 12. Their rushing attack, which still ranks among the worst in the NFL (25th in yards per carry) put up just 63 yards. Their offense stalled after the midway point of the second quarter, resulting in 5 punts, a missed field goal and 2 fumbles lost on their final 8 drives.

Philly’s defense struggled to hold off Dallas’ high octane pass-offense, which eventually gained 473 yards and 25 first downs in a historic comeback. It was the best and worst of the Eagles all in one contest and a glaring case study in what they’ll need to improve if they hope to take home another Lombardi Trophy this season. They also incurred injuries to star safety Reed Blankenship, who’s working through a thigh injury, and Adoree Jackson is questionable after getting evaluated for a concussion.

The Bears are still riding high and that alone is enough to breed confidence in Ben Johnson’s new program. Although they continue to beat up on mid to lower-tier programs (and back-up quarterbacks), Chicago is officially on a 4-game winning streak and remains atop the NFC North. Their offense is their strength, leveraged by turnovers and ranked top-10 in total EPA, with the 7th best rushing attack and a top-11 passing game according to EPA metrics. Philadelphia will, by far, present their greatest challenge yet. Against two other comparable defenses (Baltimore and Minnesota), Chicago was limited (35 combined points, 692 combined yards). The Bears’ defense, which ranks 22nd against the run and allows 5.2 yards per carry, a bottom-3 ranking, is a concern.

At Philadelphia on a short week, it’s tough to picture the Eagles losing this game. It’s also tough to imagine them pulling away. The Eagles’ offense just hasn’t been explosive, ranking average to below average across the board. Caleb Williams and a smart offense led by coach Johnson should yield a competitive battle between these top NFC programs.

Bears vs Eagles prediction: Chicago Bears +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 44.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Eagles’ defense has looked in its best form throughout November. That is, until last Sunday. The Cowboys’ avenged 2 early turnovers and did whatever they wanted eventually, gaining an impressive 7 yards per play and scoring a touchdown on 3 out of 5 red-zone possessions. Dumb mistakes (14 penalties for 96 yards, 2 turnovers) by Philly certainly helped catalyze Dallas’ resurgence. A banged up secondary won’t help matters against Caleb Williams and a burgeoning Bears’ offense, but we’re also not overly concerned about the Eagles’ ability to respond after a poor performance. Vic Fangio is one of the league’s premiere defensive coaches, a major reason why Philadelphia sits at 6th overall in total defensive EPA. We’re confident that he’ll scheme and fix the errors he saw from Sunday’s performance.

The Bears’ offense is generating 26.3 points per game (8th) and has one of the NFL’s best rushing operations. They sit 7th overall in rushing yards per game (142.3) and per carry (4.8). We consider the Bears’ offense versus the Eagles’ defense to be an even matchup in that sense, but Philly has a distinct advantage against the pass. Fangio’s group ranks 7th in defensive EPA per pass and #1 in opponent pass completion rate (57.41%). They’ll battle a Bears’ pass-game that’s middling in some areas (15th in yards per pass) and far below average in others (59.29% completion rate, 31st). Chicago also benefits from the NFL’s best turnover margin (+1.5 per game); this checks out as a quintessential regression game.

The total could be decided when Philly’s offense takes the field, a group that’s been inconsistent at best (14th in total EPA). For example, Jalen Hurts only averages 193.2 pass yards per game (23rd). However, we could certainly say the same thing about Dennis Allen’s defense, a unit that’s 18th in total EPA and allows 26.5 points per game (27th, and that’s mostly against poor offenses). While we can’t necessarily count on the Eagles’ offense or the Bears’ defense, we know that this will be a contentious game between two top NFC teams — and that there are plenty of reasons to fade both quarterbacks. Conclusion: this number is a tad too high.

Bears vs Eagles pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

FOX

Falcons

Jets

Point Spread Pick

ATL Falcons -2.5(-110)

Reasoning

There is a lot of exciting football on offer throughout both the professional and college ranks during Thanksgiving week. One of those games is not the Atlanta Falcons versus the New York Jets, nor is it a game that provides much value on either side against the spread — as both teams inspire little to no confidence. Given that the number is less than a field goal, however, my Falcons vs Jets pick is on the visitors to win and cover. With Michael Penix Jr. out for the year, Kirk Cousins is back under center in Atlanta. That’s hardly good news, but at least the veteran has a start under his belt — and it was a victory last week, albeit over lowly New Orleans. As mediocre as Cousins is, the offense will always have at least some kind of chance with Bijan Robinson in the backfield.

It’s not like the Falcons will have to score a lot on Sunday in order to win. Their defense is playing great, and they are facing an atrocious Jets offense. First-round draft picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. have revitalized the pass rush, which is #3 in the NFL with 39 sacks — a shocking statistic for a franchise that is historically inept in that department. The Jets have turned from Justin Fields to Tyrod Taylor, which is probably a good move but not one that makes any difference. Taylor is not particularly good even when he has time to throw the ball; against the blitz-heavy Falcons, the 36-year-old will be under pressure and therefore probably even worse than usual — which is saying a lot. New York has lost 2 straight games and scored a grand total of 24 combined points in those 2 setbacks.

Falcons vs Jets prediction: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 40(-110)

Reasoning

I am far more enthused about the game total, for which my Falcons vs Jets pick is under 40. Atlanta’s offense is mediocre at best — especially with Cousins running the show instead of Penix. Although Penix is nothing special in the early stages of his career, he can at least move around in and out of the pocket to extend plays. Cousins obviously cannot — which could be especially costly for Atlanta since the offensive line is currently depleted. The Falcons put up a respectable 24 points last weekend, but the Saints’ defense is not any good — plus a lot of that had to do with the defense setting up the offense in favorable spots. There was little production aside from a 47-yard touchdown bomb from Cousins to Darnell Mooney. Drake London is questionable with a knee injury that kept him out of the game against New Orleans, so Mooney may be tasked to step up once again.

As expected, the Jets’ offense has been a disaster in 2025. It is #29 overall and #27 in scoring. Since Week 5 they have exceeded the 14-point mark only twice. One of those occasions was against the Bengals, which should not even count. The other one saw 2 of their touchdowns come on special teams (1 kick return, 1 punt return) during a 27-20 victory over the Browns. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson missed last week’s 23-10 setback against Baltimore due to a knee problem and is expected to be sidelined for at least a few more games. The Jets probably won’t contribute much at all, and even the Falcons can’t be expected to post a big number.

Falcons vs Jets prediction: Under 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

CBS

Texans

Colts

Point Spread PickBest Bet

HOU Texans +4.5(-110)

Reasoning

Once 0-3, the surging Houston Texans are breathing down the necks of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. That makes Sunday’s Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis an absolutely crucial contest. There is simply no way I’m giving more than a field goal in this kind of division-rivalry game, especially when Houston is on such a roll — 6-2 in its last 8 outings. As such, my Texans vs Colts prediction is for the visitors to cover. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is coming off a dominant defensive performance on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, paving the way to a 23-19 upset of the Bills. Houston forced 3 turnovers (2 Josh Allen interceptions), limited Buffalo to 4.9 yards per play and sacked Allen a ridiculous 8 times for a total of 70 lost yards.

Since the Texans played on Thursday, they are effectively on a mini-bye week. They are well rested and armed with a ton of momentum, whereas the Colts just suffered a tough loss at Kansas City. Prior to that result, Indianapolis needed overtime to get past a mediocre-at-best Atlanta squad in Berlin. Quarterback Daniel Jones was playing awesome football earlier this season, but he has come back down to Earth over the past 3 games. Jones going up against this ferocious Texans defense — and specifically a pass rush spearheaded by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter — spells serious trouble for the home team.

Texans vs Colts prediction: Houston Texans +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 44.5(-108)

Reasoning

Everything about this Houston team provides a recipe for low-scoring affairs, so my Texans vs Colts pick is under 44.5. Unfortunately for the visitors, their incredible defense is not exactly complemented by an overly productive offense. Running back Joe Mixon has been out for the entire season, and the injury-plagued Nick Chubb is a shadow of his former self, so there is little ground game of which to speak. Woody Marks has done his best to fill in, but he is not a serious threat. The Texans, in all likelihood, will also once again be playing with their backup quarterback, Davis Mills. CJ Stroud remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol and is questionable for this weekend. Mills can play mistake-free football, but he isn’t a real threat.

Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor is obviously dangerous, but Houston’s defense is also stout against the run. It ranks #5 league wide in rushing defense, giving up just 92.2 yards per contest. Taylor is coming off his worst outing of the season, having been limited to 66 yards from scrimmage (58 on the ground) by Kansas City. As for Jones, he has almost as many interceptions (4) as touchdown passes (5) over the past 3 games. The number is low, so I would proceed with caution — but the under is the play for these 2 teams.

Texans vs Colts prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

FOX

Saints

Dolphins

Point Spread PickBest Bet

MIA Dolphins -5.5(-115)

Reasoning

The Miami Dolphins will try to extend their winning streak to 3 games when they host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. Even a 2-game streak is better than anything New Orleans has managed this season. It’s hard to even describe how bad the Saints are. As a result, my Saints vs Dolphins pick is on the home team to win and cover. Head coach Kellen Moore’s crew has 2 victories this season — over a Giants team that committed 5 turnovers and over Carolina when the bad version of Bryce Young showed up. New Orleans is coming off a 24-10 home loss to Atlanta, during which the Saints ran for 79 yards on 28 carries against a horrible rushing defense and averaged an anemic 3.8 yards per play.

This is a fantastic spot for the Dolphins, who should have no trouble capitalizing on the opportunity. Not only have they won 2 straight, but they are also coming off a bye week. Miami is well rested, playing at home and facing an awful opponent. Left for dead at 1-6, the Fins have resurrected themselves to win 3 of their last 4 games. During this stretch, Tua Tagovailoa has a 6-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That may not be anything special, but its far better than his 11-to-10 ratio through his first 7 outings. Count on Tua and the Dolphins staying hot.

Saints vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-118)

Reasoning

My other Saints vs Dolphins play is under 42.5, and I like it almost as much as the ATS bet. After all, hammering the under when New Orleans’ offense is involved generally pays off. The under is an amazing 6-0-1 in the Saints’ last 7 overall, largely because their offense has been inept. They have reached the 20-point mark only twice this entire year, and those 2 exceptions were 21-point and 26-point efforts. Moreover, New Orleans has scored 14, 3, 10, 17 and 10 points in its past 5 appearances. Rookie QB Tyler Shough has been predictably bland since taking over from Spencer Rattler. The Louisville product has thrown 3 TD passes and 3 INTs through 4 starts, good for a QBR of 41.3.

Fortunately for the Saints, their defense is by no means terrible. It is a run that ranks #9 against the pass and is giving up only 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, so it is pretty solid in both departments. Tagovailoa has been decent of late, but he is not getting a ton of help from his pass-catching corps. Although Jaylen Waddle has been productive at times, he is more effective as a WR2 — but WR1 is the role he has been forced into since Tyreek Hill is out for the season. Expect both offenses to struggle on Sunday.

Saints vs Dolphins prediction: Under 42.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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8:20 PM ET

Sun Nov 30

NBC

Broncos

Commanders

Point Spread PickBest Bet

DEN Broncos -6.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Broncos and Commanders are both coming off a bye week. They entered those bye weeks in completely different positions. Denver is riding as high as the mountains they’re from, currently on an eight-game winning streak with impressive victories over teams like the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles. Their defense is highly rated, top-five in most categories and permitting just 17.5 points per game (3rd). Denver’s offense, although inconsistent, does enough, and they know how to finish games. The Broncos are second overall in fourth-quarter points, averaging 9.5 per game. In short, this is a team that knows how to win, which is all you need to make it deep into the playoffs. It doesn’t always equate against the spread; the Broncos are just 5-5-1 this season.

As of Wednesday, the Commanders aren’t sure if they’re getting back Jayden Daniels yet, but it’s starting to trend in that direction. Daniels has already expressed his desire to play, and if he does that clearly changes Washington’s potential. But even when the second-year quarterback was not in the game, the squad from DC just hasn’t been very good this season. They rank a respectable 12th in offensive EPA but a very lackluster 31st on defense. Part of that is due to injuries, most of it is due to an older roster with too many randomly assembled parts. Even Dan Quinn, whose expertise is defense, hasn’t helped solve that side of the ball.

The allure of Daniels is enough to consider Washington here, but we’re concerned that they are running into a buzz saw. And frankly, The Commanders’ roster is nowhere near as talented as their opponent. They’re also even more pitiful against the spread, just 3-8 ATS this season. In every category, the visitors have the edge.

Broncos vs Commanders SNF best bet: Broncos -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 43.5(-110)

Reasoning

When two defenses are as different as the Broncos and Commanders, it makes the game far tougher to project. In general, great defenses tend to decrease average totals, unsurprisingly, and that’s true, even if there’s only one elite defense on the field. For example, Browns’ games average 39.1 points, while Texans’ and Broncos’ games average 40.6. All three teams are top-four in defensive EPA. The Rams are the NFL’s #1 ranked defense by EPA metrics, putting up 44.1 points per game. They’re an outlier, though, since their offense is just as elite. In any case, NFL games average around 46 points per game, to our point, so Broncos’ games have been well below the norm.

We have little to no trust that the Commanders, with or without Jayden Daniels, are going to soar at home on Sunday night. They average just 21.5 points per game, and we counted only four games where they faced a top-ten defense. This is a huge challenge.

The real concern is Washington’s defense, which allows 26.9 points per game (28th). It’s the reason why their 11 contests have averaged 47.5 points this season, slightly above the NFL norm, and it’s probably why Sunday night’s total isn’t even lower. But by all standards, the Broncos’ offense is a middling unit, 13th in overall EPA with numbers that qualify as league-average across the board. Landover, Maryland is forecasted to be rainy and cold, too. We think points will be tough to come by.

Broncos vs Commanders prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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8:15 PM ET

Mon Dec 1

ESPN

Giants

Patriots

Point Spread Pick

NE Patriots -7.0(-115)

Reasoning

It’s fascinating to watch the Patriots storm and norm and find their new form so quickly, but we’re not that surprised, either. When the Titans fired Mike Vrabel, it was one of the more head-scratching front office moves we’ve ever seen. Clearly Vrabel knows how to build a winning culture. His quarterback has helped. Drake Maye is flirting with an MVP award in just his second season in the league, profiling as top-5 in his position in nearly every category, including touchdowns (21, 4th overall) and QBR (2nd). No quarterback has thrown for more yards through 11 games (3,130). The Patriots’ defense is also an ascending unit, ranked top-10 in total defensive EPA and with one of the best run-stopping groups in the NFL, keeping teams to just 87.7 rushing yards per game (2nd).

Last week wasn’t as pretty as most performances, but Vrabel’s roster pulled through once again. The Bengals showed up to play, piling up 20 first downs and 307 total yards. The Patriots were just a little better, converting more on first downs (5-13), committing less penalties, and Maye was up to his usual shtick, throwing for 7.9 yards per pass. The Patriots have been fantastic at finding ways to win. Last Sunday marked their ninth straight victory..

The Giants were also up to their typical shtick in Week 12– leading against a very good team, only to blow that lead in the final seconds. Jameis Winston and the offense had an inspiring performance, with a few trick plays to boot. They gained 517 total yards on a good Lions’ defense, but it was the Giants’ defense that capitulated at the end. They couldn’t hold off Jared Goff and the Lions from clawing back into the game (NYG led 27-17 entering the fourth quarter), and in overtime their opponent made it look easy, scoring a touchdown immediately. Finally, New York’s front office decided to fire defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, a guy who surely hasn’t improved their flaws through twelve weeks.

If this was being played at East Rutherford, NJ, it might give us some pause. The fact that the Giants fired their defensive coordinator could help, but right now it’s unclear if their new star quarterback, Jaxson Dart, will return. This is Pats or nothing.

Giants vs Patriots prediction: Patriots -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 46.5(-110)

Reasoning

As far as patterns go, there’s not much to glean from either program. The Patriots are a perfectly even 6-6 ATS in totals this season, while the Giants are slightly beating the market with overs (7-5 ATS). It is worth noting how limiting the Patriots’ defense has been since mid-October.

New England’s totals tend to inflate because of how efficient their offense is, a group that ranks 6th in total EPA with the second-highest-rated pass offense. But they do a great job at keeping their opponents’ production to a minimum. Since their matchup against the Saints on October 12th, the Patriots have allowed just 17.9 points per game and 282 yards per game through their past seven contests. Both qualify as top-five marks.

Jaxson Dart, who’s undoubtedly the biggest part of the Giants’ offensive improvement this season (15th in total EPA), is officially questionable (concussion) leading into Week 13. There’s a world where the Giants’ coaching staff want to protect the young gun from further injuring himself and therefore risking the fate of the franchise.

Whether Jaxson starts or not, the Giants have been able to produce plenty with either Dart or Jameis Winston under center. In those contests, New York has averaged 24 points and 352 yards per game.

This total is hovering right below the key number of 47. That means markets and bettors are largely unsure how to feel about the production in this game, which is mostly because of the Patriots’ burgeoning defense. Either way, Drake Maye’s efficiency and their plus-matchup against the Giants’ defense combined with New York’s uptick in offensive performance has us looking at more points than the market projects.

Giants vs Patriots pick: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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