MLB Best Bets Today: Wild Card Picks & Predictions - Tolle vs Schlittler

The MLB Playoffs are here and it is finally time to sink our teeth into some postseason baseball! There are numerous ways to approach betting on the playoffs, and I have three MLB best bets standing out to me this morning. Let's dive in and discuss my favorite MLB angles for Tuesday, September 29. You can also find out our expert MLB picks for each of today's four Wild Card games, along with every matchup throughout the postseason.

Don't miss Javan's World Series futures predictions ahead of the MLB Playoffs, including a pick to win it all at +850 odds!

MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-140)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds.

Payton Tolle vs Cam Schlittler is about as electric as it gets from a starting pitching matchup perspective. Schlittler is set to start his third career playoff game after impressing across two starts last season. The right-hander totaled 14.1 innings with 14 strikeouts and two earned runs allowed in last season’s playoffs for the Yankees. New York is hoping to advance further in this year’s postseason, and the right arm of Schlittler will have a large role in doing so.

The American League Cy Young favorite put together a tremendous season in 2026, posting a 1.95 ERA in 193.2 innings of work. His 239 strikeouts recorded netted him a 95th-percentile K% while also limiting walks well and generating a healthy number of ground ball outs. He faced this Boston lineup 4 times this season, allowing just 2 earned runs across 24.1 combined innings pitched. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in a game since the beginning of August, and I expect an inspired outing from the righty in this spot.

Payton Tolle was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on during the regular season, and that will not change now that we have entered postseason play. Tolle and the Red Sox are tasked with facing the Yankees in the Wild Card round, but the Yankees will be without Aaron Judge for this game. New York still has lethal bats in their powerful lineup, but the lineup becomes far weaker without the best hitter in baseball.

Tolle posted a 3.03 ERA with an even better 2.70 xERA this season across 26 starts. He is elite at generating chases on pitches located outside the strike zone, and the batted ball metrics he allows are very solid. Tolle registered a 90th percentile xBA of .199 this season while limiting both hard contact and barreled balls. He tossed 13 innings of one-run ball in his 2 matchups with New York this season and I expect him to pitch well as he enters this matchup in good form. I favor the under on the posted game total through the first 5 innings of this game.

Read the full analysis of our Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for Game 1 of their Wild Card series



MLB Best Bet: Bryce Harper (PHI) to record a walk in Phillies vs Braves (+206)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +185 odds.

Bryce Harper is a lethal hitter who strikes fear into opposing pitching staffs. Come playoff time, it becomes harder and harder to justify pitching straight up to Harper. Over the past few seasons, we have seen opposing pitching staffs pitch very carefully to him, and he is already known for having a disciplined eye at the plate. In 693 plate appearances this season, Harper has drawn a 15.4% walk rate, which ranked in the 97th percentile among MLB batters. His career-long walk rate during the postseason also sits at 15.4. Across the last three postseasons, that rate jumps to 30.4% over the span of 69 plate appearances. Harper has drawn 21 walks in those 21 games played and yet had a very enticing price to draw a walk on Tuesday.

Chris Sale is the scheduled starter for Atlanta, and his low walk rate as a pitcher is surely playing into this price for Harper. Sale has dominated Harper in head-to-head appearances during their careers, and Sale rarely issues walks to anyone. That being said, playoff games present unique situations, and we could see a different approach this time. Harper is also likely to get at least 1 plate appearance against a reliever which heightens his chances of walking as well.

Check out our Phillies vs Braves Game 1 pick for the opening game of the 2026 MLB Playoffs

MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML over Houston Astros (+108)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100 odds.

The Wild Card series in the American League between the Houston Astros and the Chicago White Sox may end up being the series with the most variance. Both teams are set to utilize bullpen games on Tuesday, a place where both teams have been several times this season. In the last month alone, the White Sox have thrown a league-high 127 innings from their bullpen while Houston has the 11th-most with 104. Chicago outperformed Houston in terms of bullpen ERA during that span as well, ranking eighth-best compared to Houston, who sat 19th. I do expect runs to be scored from both sides, but I also lean towards the underdog in this matchup given current pricing.

Chicago was one of the larger surprises in MLB this season, turning around what had been a rough rebuild into a playoff team with a ton of pop in their bats. They recorded 84 wins and were just one game away from clinching a first-round bye. Houston had a strange offseason entering the year, parting ways with longtime Astros and bringing in some useful replacements. They were fortunate to play in the AL West where a .500 record garnered a playoff spot, but they were not one of MLB’s best 12 regular season teams this year.

Utilizing Hagen Smith as an opener guarantees that he will face Yordan Alvarez in the first inning. While Alvarez is certainly capable of hitting off anyone, Smith presents the White Sox with a lethal option from the left side in this series. Ideally, they would have saved him for a high-leverage moment later in the game, but hopefully Smith can put together a scoreless first inning for us. Erick Fedde is likely to get the ball after Smith, and Fedde enters this series in good form for Chicago. I find Game 1 to be a very intriguing matchup, and I lean towards a Chicago win on the road.

Find out our White Sox vs Astros prediction for Game 1 this afternoon