Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/16/26

Chris Paddack (7.63 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) is back in the majors with the Cincinnati Reds after a whirlwind with the Miami Marlins that saw the 30-year-old RHP designated for assignment, released days later and now signed with the Reds in need of an arm to bolster the rotation due to injury issues. It’s been a bit of a disastrous 2026 for Paddack, who sits in the 7th percentile in pitching run value. Paddack has gone a full 5.0 innings or more just once this season and been cracked for 5+ ER on multiple occasions. The Reds bullpen hasn’t been much better in relief, ranking 26th in the league with a combined 4.64 ERA.

On the flip side, Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo (2.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has posted better numbers than his counterpart, but faces a tall task against a Reds lineup that’s found its groove lately. In the last 6 games, Cincinnati is posting a 124 wRC+ and has scored an average of roughly 7 runs per game throughout that stretch. I’ll fade Paddack and back the Reds’ offense in this spot and take the over 8.5.

Reds vs Guardians prediction: Over 8.5 (-105) at time of publishing.