Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/30/26

I lean towards the over on the posted game total in Thursday’s matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the Cincinnati Reds. Michael Lorenzen is the scheduled starter for Colorado, as the journeyman right-hander is set to make his 8th appearance of the season. Lorenzen is fresh off his best outing of the year, tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball in a win against the Mets. Outside of that strong start, however, Lorenzen has struggled in 2026. His 5.97 ERA and 5.49 xERA are worrisome marks, and his inability to generate strikeouts has put a ton of pressure on the defense behind him. Opponents have a .322 xBA and a 50.4% hard-hit rate so far, so I don’t expect back-to-back strong starts.

Andrew Abbott is set to start this game for the Reds in what will be his 7th start of the year. Abbott outperformed expected metrics in previous seasons, and his ability or inability to repeat that in 2026 was a topic of fantasy baseball analysts during the offseason. So far in 2026, Abbott has been unable to produce much, posting a 6.59 ERA in his first 28.2 innings of work. His strikeout production is way down, and his batted-ball profile leaves a lot to be desired. Abbott’s 5.56 xERA is a full run better than his actual ERA so far, but still a worrisome mark. He benefits from drawing Colorado outside of Coors Field, but I still expect runs from both sides in this game.

Rockies vs Reds prediction: Over 9 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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