Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/28/26

With Monday’s 8-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels have lost 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9. It’s been a brutal run, especially considering they failed to surpass 3 runs in 6 of those 8 losses. The 2 most recent defeats were tough pills to swallow, as the Angels blew a 6-0 lead and lost in extras to the Royals despite plating 9 runs, just to be followed by another significant blown lead in Chicago on Monday. The Angels held a 4-0 lead after 4 and a 5-1 lead going into the bottom of the 7th before the Sox scored 7 of their 8 runs in the bottom frame. LA’s 9th-inning rally fell a run short, and here we are. 

Meanwhile, the White Sox have won 6 of their last 10, which feels like an incredible feat given the state of this organization over the last few years. Today, they will run Davis Martin out to the mound, a right-hander that has been a revelation in Chicago’s rotation. He is 3-1 through 5 starts with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, totalling 26 strikeouts, 7 walks and just 7 earned runs allowed in his 31.1 innings. That said, I have some concerns about his ability to continue this form, as his 4.66 xERA, 3.62 xFIP and 3.8 SIERA suggest regression is looming. He’s been fortunate to strand 86.1% of baserunners, which is 14.5% higher than last year.

The Angels will send Jose Soriano to the mound, who has been absolutely incredible this season. He is 5-0 in 6 starts and has allowed just 1 run in 37.2 innings, leading the league in wins and ERA while sitting top-5 in strikeouts and WHIP. His profile is impressive thus far, but Soriano is another regression candidate with a 2.73 xERA, 2.84 xFIP and a 3.06 SIERA. Don’t get me wrong, those are still nearly elite numbers, but a 100% left-on-base percentage is unsustainable.

I’m going to lean into the dual-regression theory here and take the over in this game. Yes, both pitchers have been excellent, but I’m not so sure it’s going to continue. On top of that, these are 2 of the worst bullpens in the league – both with ERAs north of 5.00 and WHIPs around 1.60. Not to mention, the White Sox and Angels are both top-6 in the MLB in runs over the last 15 days, as well as top-4 in OBP in that same span. Look for runs in the Southside on Tuesday.

Angels vs White Sox prediction: Over 7.5 (-120) widely availa the time of publishing. Playable to 8 (-105).

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