New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/23/26

The total for Saturday’s matchup between the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins is set at 7.5. Juice is weighted towards the over, but I am looking at the under at even money as my favorite bet in this matchup. Freddy Peralta is set to start for the Mets in this game, marking his 11th start since being traded to New York. Peralta has been effective so far this season, posting a 3.31 ERA across his first 54.1 innings of work. The right-hander has not been as dominant as previous seasons when it comes to his underlying metrics, but he still sports a solid 3.87 xERA. His first start of the year was his worst, but he has provided New York with a steady floor since. Miami ranks just 20th in wOBA against righties, and I expect a strong outing from Peralta in this spot.

New York ranks dead last in wOBA against righties this season and they are tasked with facing Max Meyer on Saturday. Meyer has posted a 2.85 ERA through his first 10 starts, spanning 53.2 innings of work. He allowed a season high 4 earned runs in his start against the Twins on 5/13 but bounced back nicely with 6 scoreless frames against a tough Braves lineup last time out. My favorite aspect of Meyer’s profile is his strikeout ability, as I believe he will have strikeout artist stuff for years to come in this league. At current pricing I lean towards a lower scoring game.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets prediction: Under 7.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105 odds.