Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/14/26

Mike Burrows has one of the more interesting statistical profiles of any starting pitcher right now. His 5.04 ERA through 44.2 innings of work is an eye sore, but his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is heading his way. He isn’t walking opponents, while he is generating chase out of the zone and limiting hard contact. Further, he tossed a quality start against the Reds before 7 shutout innings against the Red Sox in his last 2 starts, so his form is starting to turn — he’s just been a bit unlucky. Despite a 76th percentile hard-hit rate and 62nd percentile barrel rate, Burrows’ opponents have a .344 BABIP and 8 home runs.

Luis Castillo is another pitcher with an ugly-looking ERA, but his underlying metrics are not here to support him. Castillo’s 6.57 ERA is accompanied by a 5.77 xERA and some of the worst batted ball numbers in baseball. In fact, 51.6% of batted balls against Castillo have been recorded as a hard-hit ball in 2026. He is still generating chase, but the whiffs haven’t been there. Castillo has also allowed 15 earned runs across his last 3 starts with at least 4 allowed in each. Both Castillo and Burrows have struggled against these lineups already this season, but at current pricing, I will side with Burrows and Houston.

Astros vs Mariners prediction: Houston Astros ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105 odds.

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