Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/15/26

I favor the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers on Friday at current pricing. Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the few bright spots for Houston in what has otherwise been a disastrous start to 2026. Their playoff hopes and dreams of contending are unlikely given their injuries to Hunter Brown and Carlos Correa, and the rest of their pitching staff has been underwhelming. They have had league worst bullpen play and shaky starts from multiple sources of their rotation. Still, I favor them Friday as I believe they hold the starting pitching edge.

Spencer Arrighetti has tossed 28.2 innings across his first 5 starts, posting a 1.88 ERA with 30 strikeouts. His walk numbers are worrisome with 17 issued already, but his solid batted ball metrics have kept major damage from occurring. Arrighetti is certainly due regression, but he is my preferred starting option in this game given his current form.

Jack Leiter tossed 4.2 innings of scoreless ball against the Cubs in his last start. He walked 5 batters in that game, however. His prior 5 starts each resulted in 3 or more earned runs allowed with 20 total surrendered in that span. Leiter’s 13th percentile barrel rate is a worrisome metric when facing off against Houston, and despite this not being my favorite game I do lean towards an Astros win.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros prediction: Houston ML (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.