Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off Thursday night in Denver. The Heat (+9) are coming off a grueling 7-game series with the Boston Celtics, while the Nuggets are well rested after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers. The altitude combined with little down time could spell trouble for the Heat in Game 1 as the Nuggets are undefeated at home this postseason.
It will be interesting to see how Miami handles the size difference and if they will deploy Kevin Love and Cody Zeller to throw more big bodies at Jokic. If not, we could see more of the small ball lineup that Miami had gone with to close the Boston series. Nuggets head coach Mike Malone should be a more formidable opponent for Erik Spoelstra, but the gap between these two teams is greater than anything Miami has faced all postseason. The Bucks only had Giannis two full games returning from injury, the Knicks were abysmal offensively, and we cannot overlook how Jayson Tatum’s injury impacted Game 7. I’m expecting this series to be over in 4 or 5, but Game 1 will tell us a lot about both teams.
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Caleb Martin under 23.5 points + rebounds (-122)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Fading Martin is tough considering how strong he was in the Boston series, but a lot of that was the Heat matching the small ball of the Celtics, combined with scoring around the basket (~10ft). Against Denver, Martin will be at a size disadvantage with anyone in the opposing frontcourt. Combined with the fact that the Nuggets are allowing the fewest opposing rebounds per game this postseason (38.3) and Martin we shouldn’t expect to see double-digit rebounding. I also think the elevation, mixed with short turnaround will make it difficult for Martin, who is coming off two games of 40+ minutes.
Offensively, Martin benefited from having A LOT of open looks in the Celtics series. 67% of his FGA were when someone was 4+ feet away from the Heat forward; he will not have as much anonymity this series and Aaron Gordon/MPJ are much tougher to score against in the paint.. Martin has only hit this in 4/18 playoff games and only one outside of the Celtics series. I’ll be risking 1U.
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Max Strus over 2.5 3-pointers made (+155)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Max Strus easily cleared this line in both games this season against the Nuggets and should be in line for a bigger role in this series. I;ve mentioned size a lot so far and this continues that trend. Strus is 6’5 and did fairly well against Jaylen Brown. He will be better suited to matchup up with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jamal Murray in the backcourt while Spoelstra figures out the best way to handle his front court. My hunch is that Gabe Vincent sees a minutes decreases. It’s also worth mentioning that Denver only contested 13.3% of 3P shots in the Conference Finals (the lowest of all 4 teams). 1U play from me.
NBA Finals Game 1 Same Game Parlay (+103)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
- Kyle Lowry 2+ Assists
- Max Strus 2+ 3PM
- Nikola Jokic 8+ Assists
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