Slim pickings on the MLB slate today but I’ve found a spot on a player to back in a fantastic matchup despite a disappointing start to his season. Here is my best player prop bet for Thursday, May 25, featuring a playoff rematch in the nightcap.
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Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
The former Phillies ace Aaron Nola has endured a disappointing start to the season, posting a career-worst 4.18 xFIP and career-worst 4.16 SIERA. The Braves’ offense he faces today is loaded, but this line is still too low.
Despite Nola’s issues, he has posted an impressive 29.5% CSW% and his strikeout rate has skyrocketed against right-handed hitters, and the Braves will likely put 5 of them in today’s lineup. Nola has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 4 of his last 8 starts. In May, Atlanta has posted a 22.7% K% against right-handed pitchers at home — a top-10 mark in MLB. An in that span the Braves rank 16th run value/100 against the cutter, which is Nola’s top whiff-rate pitch this season.
Philadelphia’s bullpen is short-handed and gassed, which explains why Nola’s pitching outs line is set to 18.5. Six of the last 10 right-handed starts to go at least 6.0 innings against the Braves have recorded at least 6 strikeouts. Nola should add to the list tonight.
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