Best MLB player prop bets for today 8/4: Gloomy outlook for Sonny

Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum.
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 week ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 13 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.

Sonny Gray (MIN) under 4.5 strikeouts (-128)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing, playable to -140. 

The Toronto Blue Jays offense is absolutely scorching-hot against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days against right-handers, Toronto is hitting .301 which makes them the best in baseball. They are 4th in OBP, SLG and wOBA and have a wRC+ of 127. They also have the 9th-lowest K% in that span against right-handed pitchers with a 20.9% mark. 15 of the last 18 right-handed starters to face Toronto have been held under this 4.5 line, including a game in which they got to Zack Wheeler.

Sonny Gray is someone I am a fan of, but his strikeout production just isn’t there this season. The 32-year-old has just a 17th percentile whiff rate this year and a 34th percentile chase rate. Even when batters chase against Gray, they connect 6.3% higher than average. He has performed worse at home this season than last, with a 3.96 ERA, .257 OBA and 1.35 WHIP. He has also been worse at night games with a 4.70 ERA, .267 OBA, and 1.34 WHIP. Gray made 5 starts in July and posted a 5.92 ERA, while failing to get past 5 innings in 4 of 5 starts. On the season Sonny averages 16.99 pitches per strikeout. In July he averaged just 82.2 pitches per start and now draws his toughest opponent of the bunch. Gray has gone under this line in 8 of his 15 starts this season including 6 of his last 9.

Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today’s action!

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