Best MLB player prop for Monday's MLB slate: Lynch to K Astros

Daniel Lynch MLB player prop
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John Hyslop

MLB· 1 month ago

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You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

If you’re hanging around Twitter today, you should send a tweet to your favorite sportsbook congratulating them on a job well done in the MLB player prop market. They nailed it. I couldn’t find a single “best bet I’ve ever seen in my life” bet for today. There was one on the borderline, which was Paul Blackburn 2.5 -140 at DraftKings. I didn’t want to pay -140 and then it jumped to -190 so my hands were tied at that point.

Instead, we’re going to have to gamble a little. There is no Brad Keller from Friday, Triston McKenzie from Saturday or Cal Quantrill from yesterday out there today. But there is one MLB player prop at a low number with a fair price attached. I don’t like the matchup, but I do like the kid. We are just going to have to ride with him tonight.

On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today. It’s just a smart thing to do. Also, bets can be added to the card, so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action?

Daniel Lynch over 3.5 strikeouts (-105)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

This one is a DraftKings exclusive as they are the only ones with 3.5. BetMGM has 4.5 +120 and FanDuel has 4.5 +134. No thanks on that. I am a sucker for the MLB player prop at a plus money line but in a case like tonight, that seems like a bad idea.

Daniel Lynch is pretty filthy and if he loses tonight we will get a good number on him for his next start which will be against the Seattle Mariners next week. He just fanned 5 of these Astros last time he faced them so he can hit this number. The issue is, I never take guys who are pitching against the same opponent in back-to-back starts. I also never target the Houston Astros. Still, this is a good number at a fair price. All Lynch has to do is strike out 4 guys, which he’s done in 5 of his last 6 starts.

The reason I don’t target the Astros is because no team in MLB has struck out less than they have this season. Still, Tyler Anderson just fanned 4 of them yesterday and Logan Gilbert got 5 of them the day before. The point is, this can be done and Daniel Lynch just did it last week himself. The number and price is right, it’s just important we know who we’re dealing with. This is my favorite way to attack the MLB player prop market on Monday.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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