Best Player Props for Thursday's MLB Slate: Burnes burns Cards
Do you want some honesty? Yesterday’s MLB Player Props were pure magic. We had guys striking out guys left and right and stuffing cash in our pockets in the process. Just a glorious day to be alive (and gambling). Today, I’ve decided that we should do the same thing. There are 12 games on the MLB card. That’s 24 starting pitchers for us to pick through.
The MLB Network is starting early today with either the Blue Jays/Braves game at 12:20 pm ET or the Phillies/Nationals game at 1:05 pm ET depending on your market. At 7:10 pm they’re showing the Oakland A’s visiting Fenway to take on the Boston Red Sox. After that, they’ll finish us off with the Indians/Mariners game at 10:10 pm ET. Bottom line, there’s too much action today to not have action. Here are a couple of player props I’m getting down on right now.
Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 12 games today. As always, bets can be added to the card so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? It makes sense.
Corbin Burnes Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
Corbin Burnes has not pitched since April 26th. He’s been out for “undisclosed” reasons but he is back today and says he’s 100%. Burnes is actually on the record as saying that he’s been throwing, lifting weights, and riding his Peloton bike.
A lot of bettors will see that this is his first start in a while and think about fading him but I think it’s time to galaxy brain this a little. Burnes hasn’t gone more than 6.1 innings all season so even if his leash is short, how much shorter could it be? He’s struck out at least nine guys in every start so far so there is that. I think this is a fair price given his situation.
The opponent does matter a little and he’s getting the St. Louis Cardinals which helps. Over the last week, they’re in the bottom half of MLB in strikeouts and have a couple of guys that are in the 30+% strikeout rate range in that span. Burnes already had a nine K game against St. Louis once this season. It’s not crazy to think he could do it again today. This is one of my favorite player props today.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers.
Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
I went after the Washington Nationals last night with Zack Wheeler and it felt good. The Nationals are a “strikeout team” at the moment and we’re getting another fair price. You could actually argue that today’s number is better than yesterday’s. (We shouldn’t argue about this stuff though.)
Something has happened to Eflin over his last three starts and as a K guy, I like it. Over his last three, he has posted eight, seven, and eight strikeouts. Those games were against the Braves, Mets, and Cardinals too so they aren’t “fake” games. His strikeout rate is almost 30% in those games which is crazy for him given his career rate is only 19.3%.
On the season, only one team has struck out less than the Nationals (New York Mets) but over the last seven days, something has happened. They’ve only played five games over that span yet have struck out tenth most in MLB. It’s not like they have been playing power pitchers either. Eflin’s strikeout prop at this price is one of the better player props available today.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals.