BetsByBob MLB picks: Loaded baseball card on Memorial Day
Today, most of us get to enjoy a day off from work. We get to BBQ, spend time with our families or just enjoy the long three-day weekend lounging and watching sports. It’s all thanks to the men and women who sacrificed their lives for us to be able to enjoy ours. My sincerest thanks and appreciation goes out to all of those who served for our country past, present and future. Thanks to you guys, I get to feel safe at home as I dig through a loaded baseball card on this Monday holiday. We have one double-header on the card with the White Sox and Indians playing two seven-inning games today. The Rangers, Rockies, Marlins and Blue Jays also all have today off before starting up their new series tomorrow. There is plenty to talk about, so let’s get after it.
Philadelphia Phillies (Vince Velasquez) at Cincinnati Reds (Wade Miley)
Play: Reds (-105)
*Playable to Reds (-120)
The Cincinnati Reds are back at home and will be welcoming the Philadelphia Phillies into town. The Reds got back in the win column yesterday behind a strong preformance from Tyler Mahle. The Phillies are looking to do the same today, as they have dropped their last two and are 3-7 in their past ten games.
Vince Velasquez gets the assignment for the visiting Phillies, and there should be some regression coming his way. He has an ERA of 2.95 and a FIP of 4.94. That alone screams regression should be coming, but there are some other peripherals that point to that as well. He is carrying a low BABIP of .228 while at the same time giving up a hard-hit rate of 47.7 percent of all the balls in play. Sometimes those hard-hit balls happen to be right at someone, but more often than not, if you keep giving them up you will be paying for it sooner rather than later.
Wade Miley will be taking the mound for the Reds. Miley has had a good season so far, turning in an ERA of 3.50 and a FIP of 3.20. He also has a no-hitter to his name, so I am sure he is pleased with where he is at. Miley does a good job limiting the hard contact, giving up hard-hit balls at a rate of 31.1 percent. His ground-ball percentage is up, and his homerun percentage is down.
The Reds seem to hit better when they are at home, and should be able to take advantage of massive regression candidate in Velasquez. The Reds are the play at home at a pick ’em.
Oakland Athletics (James Kaprielian) at Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
Play: Athletics (-118)
*Playable to Athletics (-130)
The Oakland Athletics are heading to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seattle Mariners. The A’s will be looking to get a few wins on this road trip, having dropping their past two. On the other side, the Mariners swept their recent four-game series against the lowly Rangers. They were all closely contested games and the Athletics are a step up in the level of competition. We have a young matchup of the starting pitchers, but I give the older player the upper hand.
Taking the ball for the visiting A’s will be James Kaprielian. The 27-year-old right-hander has only 20 innings of MLB experience, but so far this year he has looked good. He has an ERA of 1.53 and a FIP of 3.45. So there should be some regression coming his way, but nothing too crazy. He strikes out guys at a 27.1 percent clip, and does a good job keeping guys off the base paths with a WHIP of 0.91. There is a lot to like in Kaprielian’s profile, and I am excited to see him throw more here in the near future.
On the opposing side for the Mariners, Logan Gilbert gets the nod. The 24-year-old has thrown even fewer innings than Kaprielian, having logged only 10.2 innings. In that time, he racked up an ERA of 7.59 with a FIP of 4.33. So there should be some better things to come for Gilbert. He has a BABIP of .333, but when you allow a hard-hit rate of 51.4 percent, the BABIP is always going to be higher than league averages. Gilbert has also allowed a line-drive rate of 42.9 percent, and a ground-ball rate of just 22.9 percent. Guys are able to see the ball well, and are barreling it up as a result. I like the A’s to take advantage of this spot, and at the price it’s a good play.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks and Predictions. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.