We wrap up another wonderful week of baseball with a 15-game slate today. Baseball starts early in Atlanta with an 11:35 am ET first pitch and concludes with a Dodgers and Padres edition of Sunday Night Baseball at 7:10 pm ET. I’ve looked through the massive slate and identified one edge that I really like.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bet for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Hands up, I was wrong. I thought that Boston’s struggling starting rotation would be too much for their offense to overcome, but the Sox have won 8 games in a row, which includes sweeping the Blue Jays and taking the first 2 games against the Phillies. Although the opponents and location have changed throughout their 8-game win streak, there has been one constant — their offense. Boston has scored at least 5 runs in 8 straight games which has been against several top-tier pitchers including Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and Zack Wheeler. To complete the sweep and earn their 9th consecutive victory, they need to beat Taijuan Walker. Walker is coming off an abomination of an outing in Los Angeles as he was shelled for 8 runs, 8 hits and 3 home runs in just 3.1 innings. That was supposed to be a bounce-back start because in the outing prior to that, the veteran gave up 5 runs, 5 hits and 2 homers in 5 innings. Notice a theme?
Walker has been plagued with the long ball this season, as he’s surrendered 7 homers in just 28.2 innings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another ball or two fly out of the park against him this afternoon since the Red Sox have the 6th-most home runs in the last 14 days and the 5th-most against right-handed pitching. But there’s more! Looking into Walker’s pitch selection, he has relied on a split finger for 32% and his fastball for 23.7% of pitches. That doesn’t seem important until you look at how the Red Sox offense has fared against those pitches. Boston ranks 1st in wSF (weighted split finger runs) and 3rd in wFB (weighted fastball runs) this season. In summary, they’ve been mashing Walker’s two primary pitches. The Sox rank 1st in batting average and on-base percentage and 2nd in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and with the way they have been swinging the bat recently, I’m happy taking their team total over at 4.5 runs.
Check out today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets.
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