When the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs kick off on Monday night in Los Angeles it will be the highest closing total ever in NFL history. The line opened up at 59.5 but with two high powered offenses facing off the total has moved all the way up to 63.5. This is just the third time in NFL history that a total has been above 60 points. So what’s the smart play here? Are the two offenses going to do enough to push the total over? Or will both defenses step up enough to push the total under? Let’s break it down!
The Kansas City Chiefs offense is led by Patrick Mahomes and he has been airing it out all season averaging 305.5 yards per game. The Chiefs are averaging 35.3 points per game which is second in football. The Chiefs also don’t really like to hold onto the ball for a long time and prefer the deep shots to Tyreek Hill, something that has worked out well so far this season. Hill has 891 receiving yards for 9 touchdowns with the longest reception being 75 yards.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs have left a lot to be desired. They are giving up 410.7 yards per game which is 29th in football. The secondary is a big reason for the struggles giving up over 289 yards per game through the air.
The only positive to come out of the defense is that although they gave up a ton of yards they are 16th in the league in points given up at 24 a game.
For the Rams, their offense is a lot like the Chiefs averaging 448 yards and 33.5 points per game. Their offense has been consistent this year, scoring at least 29 points in every game besides one, and that was against the Denver Broncos and they still scored 23 points. In their last two games they are averaging 35.5 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Rams have played decent giving up 23.1 points per game which is 12th in the NFL. As of late, the defense has really struggled though giving up 45 points and 31 points in their last two games so the big question is exactly what team will show up on Monday night in Los Angeles.
Trends
Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in Week 11.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Some people are going to bet the under because of the Rams defensive stats from the entire season, and they have a strong rest to do that. Even though it may seem as if the Rams defense is one of the worst in the league, they are actually one of the best in the league as they are ranked 10th in passing yard allowed with 233.1. They are also 12th in points allowed per game in 23.1 as this will be the game that the Rams defense really steps up.
It’s going to be a “low-scoring” on Monday night football as the final score will be closer to 50.
