MLB Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros same game parlay (+558): Pitching takes off in Houston

Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier (53) walks off the mound after pitching during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park.
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Keith Schmelter

MLB · 1 week ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!

The series finale between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros will be Sunday Night Baseball’s matchup. The series is split one game apiece and Sunday’s matchup will feature the hard-throwing Michael Kopech and the rising star Cristian Javier.

Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

No run in the 1st inning (-122)

Alternate total under 6.5 runs (+158)

Michael Kopech over 4.5 strikeouts (+112)

Parlay odds: +558

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

No run in the 1st inning (-122)

In his 11 starts, Michael Kopech has a 1.69 ERA in the first inning. He has been dominant in the first frame all season long and opponents are hitting just .159 against the hard-throwing righty in that frame. As for Cristian Javier, he has a 2.25 ERA in the first inning through 12 appearances and 8 starts. Opponents are hitting just .200 against Javier in the first frame, which makes for a solid starting pitching matchup in the first half of the game. Javier is also much better on his home mound, as his ERA drops from 4.63 on the road to 1.98 at home. These teams rank 20th and 21st in first-inning runs per game, so expect a slow start and a scoreless opener.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros.

White Sox vs Astros alternate total under 6.5 runs (+158)

Low-scoring games have been a common theme in Houston this season as 18 of the Astros’ 28 home games have stayed below the total. Of Houston’s 28 home contests, the score is staying below the total by an average of 0.8 runs, which is the most in all of baseball. Six of Javier’s eight starts have gone under the total, and with the pitching matchup today that trend should continue. Kopech is very well rested, as he threw only 13 pitches in his last start because he exited the game with knee discomfort. But the right-hander passed all the tests and is 100 percent healthy to start on Sunday according to the White Sox. That means Kopech has not had a full outing since June 6, so he should be rested and ready to give Chicago at least 5.0 or 6.0 innings of quality work. The Houston bullpen has been the most reliable arm barn in baseball this season, ranking 1st in ERA, and although the White Sox bullpen has struggled in 2022 they have been improving. They rank 16th in ERA in the last two weeks — which isn’t great, but it’s improvement!

Check out our MLB best bets here.

Michael Kopech over 4.5 strikeouts (+112)

A well-rested Kopech and a banged-up Astros lineup offers value on the over. Kopech is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, as his average fastball velocity sits at 95.3 MPH and that pitch is a big reason for his 25.2% strikeout rate. He has recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 6 of his 10 starts (not counting his most recent outing due to injury) and his last full outing was against the Dodgers and he punched out 8 batters. The Astros have listed Yordan Alvarez and Aledmys Diaz as questionable for tonight’s matchup, which could benefit Kopech because they are two of the better hitters in Houston’s lineup. Since Kopech has hit this over numerous times this season, the over at plus-odds is worth the bet.

Don’t miss our MLB parlays for today’s action.

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

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