Mark Lammey
Show Bio
We hit our Game 2 SGP and Game 4 SGP, so would only be fitting if we take care of business in Game 6. The Astros finally broke the trend of going back-and-forth with the winning team after they won each of the last 2 games in Philadelphia. That puts them in a great position with the series now heading back to Houston. They will have 2 home games to close it out but can do so as early as Saturday night.
With the Phillies’ backs against the wall, let’s break down Game 6. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming World Series action.
Astros ML (-150)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (+170)
Jeremy Pena to record a hit (-195)
Parlay odds: +425
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros ML (-150) over Philadelphia Phillies
It has been an incredible postseason run for the Phillies. They went from 3rd place in the NL East and made it to the World Series as a wild-card team. Philly even led this series 2-1 despite being a significant underdog. However, I expect the Cinderella story to end on Saturday in Houston. Despite losing 2 games in this series, the Astros continue to prove that they have been the best and most consistent team throughout the season. Ace Justin Verlander was able to get the monkey off his back by winning Game 5, and Framber Valdez can close things out.
Valdez engineered Houston’s first win of the World Series with a dominant performance in Game 2. That, too, was a home game — in which the lefty allowed just 1 run and 4 hits in 6.1 innings. The Astros went on to win that game 5-2 after their second straight 5-0 lead. They were able to do so against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, who will be back on the mound for Game 6. He gave up all 5 runs to Houston in that loss. He may have a stronger outing with optimal rest, but let’s not forget how dominant the Astros’ bullpen has been.
Houston’s relief staff has an incredible 0.88 ERA through 51.1 innings pitched in this postseason. If it is able to deliver another strong performance, Houston will become the first team in MLB history to record a postseason ERA less than 1.00 with at least 40.0 innings pitched. Even if Valdez isn’t quite as dominant, the relievers can lock things down well enough for the Astros to close out this series.
Be sure to check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Game 6 predictions
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (+170)
It was Yordan Alvarez that came through for us in Game 2, and there’s no reason to doubt him on Friday night. That was when Wheeler was on the mound, so that matchup is already perfect. Alvarez hit this prop in the 1st inning with his RBI double to give the Astros a 2-0 lead. He continues to show that he is one of the best hitters in baseball, and he should close out his season in the same fashion. We mentioned that back in Game 2, but it’s worth repeating.
His 288 total bases this year were the 7th-most in the AL, and he missed nearly 30 games. Because of that, his .613 slugging percentage was better than every hitter ahead of him other than Yankees Aaron Judge. Now he gets to head back to Houston, where he is hitting just a shade under .300 with a .624 slugging percentage. It’s also worth mentioning that Alvarez is tied for the team lead in RBI during these playoffs with 11. That could be a consideration for a solo play, but will stick with the total bases prop for our SGP.
Be sure to check out our YRFI/NRFI best bet for Game 6 – we’ve hit each of the last 3 games!
Jeremy Pena to record a hit (-195)
Let’s wrap things up with the rookie sensation. Jeremy Pena looks set to be the World Series MVP, and he is more than deserving. It was the rookie shortstop that Alvarez knocked in with an RBI double against Wheeler. It should come as no surprise that Pena was on base, as he’s recorded a hit in every postseason game but 1 thus far.
We’ve targeted guys in bounce-back spots quite often this season, but we’re riding the hot bat with this play. The baseball is looking like a beach ball to him right now, as he has 18 hits across Houston’s 12 postseason games. He also averaged nearly a hit per game in the regular season, with 132 in 136 games. Pena has also recorded 2 or more total bases in 5 of the last 6 games. Similarly to Alvarez, feel free to use that as a solo play, but we’re rolling with the simple hit prop to round things out.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
