Ricky Dimon
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We have a 16-game slate in Major League Baseball on Saturday. No, there are not 32 teams in MLB; the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals are contesting a double-header. Also in the schedule are the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels, who will square off in an evening game in L.A. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for that showdown, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Angels ML (-110)
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+240)
Jose Quintana Over 5.5 strikeouts (+146)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Mike Trout going yard and Jose Quintana mowing down opposing barters left and right obviously goes will with a Los Angeles win. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Angels ML (-110)
The Angels thumped the Twins 10-3 on Friday and the home team should be in line for another win on Saturday. They did the majority of their damage against the Twins’ bullpen, scoring two runs in the sixth inning and another six runs in the seventh inning after trailing 3-2. On Saturday, the Twins will send Matt Shoemaker to the mound. Shoemaker took a no-hitter into the fifth inning in his first start of the year and took a shutout into the sixth inning of his second start, but he surrendered four earned runs in the top of the sixth against the Mariners. In 2021, he has a 1.00 ERA his first two times through the batting order and an alarming 18.00 ERA when facing lineups the third time through the order. After the Twins used four bullpen arms (in addition to their catcher) in relief yesterday, they are likely to try and get some length out of Shoemaker in this one.
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+240)
Shoemaker’s mid-to-late-game struggles do not bode well for him heading into this matchup with Trout and company. The 34-year-old right-hander has surrendered three home runs through two starts (11.0 innings) in 2021, which is concerning. In 2020, Trout hit 14 dingers in 146 at-bats against righties compared to only three HRs in 53 ABs against lefties. That is nothing new for the 29-year-old, either. He has always been way better vs. same-side pitching throughout his illustrious career. Trout has already left the yard four times this season; a fifth time could be coming soon.
Jose Quintana Over 5.5 strikeouts (+146)
Quintana, despite owning an ugly 16.20 ERA in the young season, has posted a 3.73 FIP. He has been victimized by a horribly unlucky .556 BABIP to this point, but expect his fortunes to change tonight against a lineup that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching dating all the way back to the beginning of 2020. Quintana has been extremely unlucky through his first two starts of the year and has a favorable matchup in this one against a lineup that struggles to hit lefties, so you have to feel good about his chances for success on Saturday. It should also be noted that the southpaw has posted a solid K/9IP ratio over the past four seasons after not being much of a strikeout pitcher during his first four MLB years. Meanwhile, Minnesota has three guys who have already struck out 14 times in 2021. Miguel Sano is in the top 10 with 19 Ks and Jake Cave is tied for 16th in the league, having fanned on 17 occasions.
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