It’s a very busy Saturday with college football and Major League Baseball happening throughout the day. Baseball starts early with the Red Sox and Yankees kicking off the slate in the Bronx and the day is concluded with the Rangers and Mariners in Seattle. I’ve made a 3-leg parlay that pays out at over 8/1 odds, so let’s dive in!
The Dodgers have played 147 games and have been the underdog just 14 times this season. That’s less than 10% of their games! What I’m trying to say is that we rarely get to see a plus sign next to Los Angeles’ money line. But when the opportunity is there, I like to take the chance. The primary reason the Dodgers are underdogs against an injured-riddled Braves team is because of their starter: Chris Sale. It’s been a career turnaround in 2024 for Sale who should win the Comeback Player of the Year and the NL Cy Young. And get this: the last time that he allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start was June 1. So, why would I be going against Sale? Two main reasons. One, Jack Flaherty has been just as good as Sale. He’s 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a .242 batting average allowed since joining the Dodgers. And second, the Dodgers have crushed lefty pitching in the second half. They rank 4th in batting average, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching since August 1. I’ll take my chances with the better lineup and bullpen at plus odds.
The Brewers escaped with the win last night even though Arizona had plenty of traffic on the basepaths. This time, I’m expecting Milwaukee to have runners in scoring position throughout the night. Brandon Pfaadt solidified himself as an important member of the Diamondbacks rotation after his postseason heroics last year, but he’s been a lot less consistent down the stretch this season. Pfaadt posted a 6.04 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP in 5 starts in August and not much has changed even with the calendar flipping to September because he currently owns a 6.10 ERA and 1.94 WHIP through 2 starts this month. It’s not like Pfaadt is getting unlucky considering he’s surrendered 8 or more hits in his last 5 consecutive starts. And even more worrisome, hitters have a .347 batting average and .299 xBA against him in that 5-start span. Negative regression is hitting Pfaadt at a terrible time, so I’ll happily take the Brewers at plus odds in this matchup.
It’s been a tough rookie season for Mason Black. San Francisco’s #8 prospect has struggled to translate his success in the Minor Leagues to the show since he has a 7.50 ERA and 6.30 xERA in 6 appearances, including 5 starts. His last start came against this Padres lineup in San Diego and he was shelled for 6 hits, 4 runs, and 1 home run in just 4.2 innings. That marked the 4th time in his 6 outings that he’s allowed at least 4 runs. The 24-year-old is clearly not ready for this level and won’t have any easier of a time tonight against a team that has already hit him hard. San Diego is countering the rookie with Joe Musgrove, who is coming off a terrible start against the Giants. His blowup outing was pretty unexpected considering he had allowed just 4 earned runs in his first 5 starts since being activated off the injured list. Allowing 3 home runs was the real killer to his outing, so if he can avoid the long ball, he has a good chance at avenging his last start.
