Sunday presents a 13-game slate with plenty of betting opportunities across Major League Baseball. The day begins in Washington at 11:35 am ET when the Nationals host the Los Angeles Angels and winds down in Seattle with the Mariners taking on the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 pm ET.
Sunday’s mega parlay features a favorite on the run line and a pair of underdogs to win outright. Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the reasoning behind each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page — which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article.
With that said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +870 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The San Francisco Giants continue to battle in a tightly contested NL wild-card race and find themselves just 1.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the third and final spot. In just over 2 weeks time, the Giants have gone from 5.5 games back to their current standing, with a 12-3 record since July 26. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers have gone from 5.5 games back in the AL wild card down to 10 games back in that same time frame. With both teams trending in opposite directions, I see some excellent value in backing the Giants to continue riding high and completing a 3-game sweep of the Tigers on Sunday afternoon.
The Giants will turn the ball over to rookie right-hander Hayden Birdsong, who has shown great promise through his first 7 MLB starts. Birdsong owns a 4.73 ERA across 32.1 innings, but most of that can be attributed to his most recent outing against the Nationals, in which the 22-year-old surrendered 7 earned runs in just 2.0 innings of work. Other than that, Birdsong has been a reliable arm who has not given up more than 3 earned runs in his 6 other starts. Aside from limiting runs, Birdsong has upside in his strikeout capabilities, notching 20 combined strikeouts in his 2 starts prior to his blowup start against the Nats.
The Tigers also have a rookie right-hander on the hill today in Keider Montero. While Montero’s 5.62 ERA isn’t far from what Birdsong has produced, he has been much more inconsistent and the underlying metrics are not encouraging. Montero has appeared in 9 games for Detroit and has given up 4 earned runs or more in 6 of those starts. His xERA, xBA and chase rate all rank in the bottom 6 percentile. The Giants have the starting pitching advantage in this game, as well as a significant advantage offensively. Over the past 2 weeks, the Tigers rank last in baseball with a 59 wRC+. Let’s back the Giants to complete the sweep and cover the run line.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the brink of losing yet another series, with the best possible outcome resulting in a split series with a win today. Philadelphia has lost 6 of their last 7 series, whereas the Arizona Diamondbacks have been amongst one of the hottest teams in baseball since the all-star break. The D-Backs have gone 16-5 since the break and made light work of the Phillies last night with a commanding 11-1 victory. For those reasons, it’s quite a surprise to see Arizona listed as a home underdog this afternoon at +105 odds. I project the Snakes to stay hot and win the series with their lineup clicking the way it has. Let’s take a further look into why.
I’ve been quite high on left-hander Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies this season, and he deservingly was named to this year’s All-Star Game due to his stellar work. Through 22 starts, Sanchez has maintained a 3.27 ERA and has solidified himself as an effective ground-ball pitcher. Sanchez ranks in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate and seldom gives up hard contact. While these metrics work in favor of Sanchez, the D-Backs thrive against left-handed pitching, ranking 7th in wRC+. More importantly, Arizona has been the most dangerous lineup in baseball over the past 2 weeks, owning a 161 wRC+, a considerable margin over the next closest team in the Orioles at 139.
The Phillies have not been nearly as productive offensively, ranking 22nd in wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. Their lineup will be going up against right-hander Merrill Kelly, making his 5th start of the season since returning from a right shoulder strain. Kelly has been as reliable as they come over the past 2 seasons, posting an ERA of 3.37 in 2022 and 3.29 in 2023. Through 4 outings this season, Kelly has picked up where he left off, owning a 2.19 ERA with 3 quality outings. Much like Sanchez, Kelly has limited hard contact, but he’s going up against a lineup that has struggled to produce much hard contact of late. Each of these lineups can go off at any time, but Arizona has been scary of late.
Our final game takes us to Seattle for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN between the Mariners and the visiting New York Mets. The Mets have been held scoreless through the first 2 games of this series, but it’s important to not overreact to those recent results. New York has been playing winning baseball of late, and over the past 30 days, they cracked the top 10 in wRC+. In that same time frame, the Mariners rank 24. Since the start of July, the Mets have gone 21-15 and are now just 0.5 games back of the Braves for second place in the NL East. On the other hand, the Mariners have lost control of first place in the AL West, who they now share with the Astros, and have gone 15-17 since the start of July.
With Luis Castillo taking the ball for Seattle tonight, it’s not overly surprising to see the Mariners favored in this spot. However, Luis Severino of the Mets is having a terrific bounce back year after a disappointing 2023 campaign, in which Severino owned a career-worst 6.65 ERA in 89.1 innings. This year has been much improved for the 30-year-old right-hander, who owns a 4.06 ERA to a 3.92 xERA, with drastic improvements in nearly all of his underlying metrics. This isn’t to say Castillo is having a bad year, because he’s not, holding a 3.48 ERA across 24 starts. But it is to say that Severino is performing better in numerous metrics — including xBA, avg exit velo, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate. The starting pitching matchup is much closer than it might appear and the Mets have a major edge offensively. I’m tipping the Mets to avoid the sweep and get the win tonight in Seattle.
