The week in Major League Baseball continues with a modest 8-game slate on Thursday. All but 2 of the contests are in the afternoon, as many teams wrap up series before going to start new ones on Friday. Some of the standout matchups on the schedule are Rays vs Blue Jays, Giants vs Dodgers and Braves vs Mets. Let’s dive into my MLB parlay picks for Thursday, July 25, while you can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s big games.
For this MLB parlay, I am going with 2 favorites on the run line and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Giving 1.5 runs and still getting a team at worse than even money generally isn’t an enticing option. When the opposing pitcher is Patrick Corbin, however, it’s almost always an exception. That is certainly the case on Thursday, as Corbin and the Nationals will be going up against Dylan Cease and the Padres.
As usual, Corbin has pretty much been automatic fade material this season. His numbers are predictably horrendous: 2-9, 5.35 ERA, 1.49 WHIP. The Nats are a ridiculous 2-12 in his last 14 starts and have lost 8 of those games by at least 2 runs. Manny Machado is 8-for-24 lifetime in the matchup with a homer and a double; Ha-Seong Kim is 5-for-14 — also with a homer and a double. Count on Cease (9-8, 3.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) getting more than enough run support and for the Padres to dominate to open our MLB parlay picks.
Clayton Kershaw is back. The Dodgers’ long-time ace underwent shoulder surgery this past offseason and was always targeted to return in either July or August. Despite a setback following 1 minor-league appearance that shelved him for a week, Kershaw is ready to go in late July. Last Friday with Triple-A Oklahoma he worked 4.0 innings and surrendered 3 runs on 6 hits with 2 strikeouts and zero walks. At 36 years old and with a long list of injuries throughout his career, Kershaw inspires little confidence at this point in time.
The veteran southpaw will probably have to pitch well on Thursday if he wants to keep L.A. competitive because San Francisco is countering with Logan Webb. Although Webb’s record is just 7-8, he is sporting a respectable 3.59 ERA in addition to a stellar 111-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s a good idea to fade Kershaw when you can get the Giants well into plus-money odds.
When Chris Sale toes the rubber it’s usually good news for the Braves. The veteran left-hander has been outstanding in 2024 and may have started the 2024 MLB All-Star Game for the National League instead of Paul Skenes if had not been unavailable due to having made a start on the Sunday prior to the Midsummer Classic. He is 13-3 with 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 140 strikeouts compared to just 24 walks in 110.0 innings of work. Atlanta has won 3 of his last 4 starts and 12 of his last 15. Another win by Sale is exactly what the Braves need given that they have dropped 4 in a row. The Mets have been pretty good of late and Luis Severino is no slouch, but the Braves are the better team and Sale is the better pitcher. Give me the visitors to prevail by multiple runs to round off today’s MLB parlay picks.
