Filip Tomic
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The series between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers has already been labelled the series to keep an eye on in the first round of the NBA playoffs. These teams finished just 3 games apart in the standings, with the Raptors winning 3 of the 4 regular-season meetings.
Will it be the Sixers with their two superstars, or can the more team-oriented Raptors pull off the upset? Before the series starts off on Saturday in Philadelphia, I’ve taken a deep dive and analyzed this matchup. Let’s break it down!
Can Toronto slow down Joel Embiid?
The Philly big man had a huge burden lifted off his back since the regular season ended. He no longer has to worry about putting up numbers and chasing the scoring title, instead he can relax a bit, play his game and try to take an NBA title to a city that hasn’t seen one since the 1982-83 season.
When you look at his numbers in the regular-season meetings, Embiid dominated the Raptors, scoring 29 points per game and averaging 11.3 rebounds per game. What concerns me a bit, though, is his efficiency in those games. He shot at just 46% from the field and 20% from 3-point land, and those numbers will have to go up at least to 50% and 35% in the playoffs.
He finished off the season averaging 35.4 points per game in his last 9 outings, so whatever the Sixers’ gameplan was in those 9 games, they just have to continue feeding the big man and they’ll be in a solid spot. He no longer has to worry about the MVP award, as that will be announced after the season is done. I also think that’ll have a positive impact on him mentally, and winning the opening 2 home games would be a solid momentum builder.
Time for James Harden to wake up?
I’d argue James Harden has the most pressure to deliver coming into these playoffs. Ever since his honeymoon phase with the 76ers ended, he hasn’t been the Harden of old. He’s averaged 21 points, 7.1 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game in 21 outings with them and although most NBA players would be okay with that, we are accustomed to seeing much more from him.
Harden is eligible to sign a max extension this summer and rumor has it the Philadelphia front office is hesitant to extend him for 5 years and $227m after seeing his numbers dip following a hot start with the team. Before this season started he declined a contract offer of 3 years and $161m from the Nets, betting on himself to earn an even bigger payday.
In this series he’ll need to limit his turnovers (currently at 3.4 per game with Philly), improve his efficiency (40.2% from the field and 32.6% from three), spend less time talking to the refs and instead just be the James Harden we saw in Houston a few years back. It might sound simple, but until he gets it done I’m going to remain skeptical about him.
Toronto’s strengths: transition game, forcing turnovers and rebounding
The Raptors are scoring 15.8 points per game in transition this season and that is one thing the 76ers need to keep an eye on in this series. Philly has had its fair share of issues trying to defend in transition, ranking just 27th in the NBA, which is alarming. However, most games in the playoffs tend to slow down as the stakes are much bigger than during the regular season. These teams ranked just 25th and 26th in pace this season, and limiting opponents’ transition points could be a deciding factor.
High opponent turnovers were also a major strength of the Raptors this season. They led the league in opponent turnover rate, with teams committing 16.2 of them per 100 possessions. That, along with offensive rebounding, was a big difference in the 4 meetings between the teams. Although the Sixers were much more efficient in those games, the Raptors were able to outrebound them by 29 on the offensive end, which gave them more shot opportunities and ultimately decided the regular-season series in their favor.
Raptors vs 76ers prediction
The Sixers have the two best players in the series and since the trade went down they are 14-7 SU in games in which both Harden and Embiid played. A lot of people are bringing up the Matisse Thybulle situation, but I don’t see that being much of a factor as he can still impact this series in the 4 home games. If you’re considering backing the Raptors to pull off the upset, I don’t blame you either. They won the regular-season series and they are arguably the worst matchup the 76ers could have had in the opening round.
However, the playoffs are a completely different animal than the regular season. I’m expecting Doc Rivers to extend Embiid’s minutes to at least 38-39. Toronto just isn’t built in a way to have an answer for the big man. I’m giving a slight edge to the 76ers, but it will be a long series.
Back Philadelphia to win 4-3 at +350 on FanDuel.
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