NFL Thursday Night Football: Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans predictions, picks and best bets from expert analyst Clevta

NFL Week 9 begins with the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football at 8:15pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.

Clevta’s Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans best bet: Eagles -14 (-110)

It always makes me nervous to lay such a huge number in the NFL, especially on the road. However, when it comes to a big favorite, Thursday night is when you would want to lay the wood. Since 2000, double-digit favorites on any day besides Thursdays during the week only cover 47% of the time. During that same period, double-digit favorites are 19-7 ATS (73%) on TNF, and they are covering by an average of over 4 points per game. If you isolate those TNF games where a team is a double-digit favorite with an above-average total (44 or more), the favorite is 11-0 ATS and covers by nearly 10 points per game. And all of this makes sense when you consider that to be laying this kind of number, there is a clear gap in talent between the two teams. On a short week with less preparation, that always puts the less talented underdog at a major disadvantage, and the Texans are clearly disadvantaged this week. Modeling large spreads are always difficult, as motivation late is not always equal, but I have this as Philly -16.

Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans predictions

Not only are the Texans likely the worst team in the NFL but their only legitimate WR weapon, Brandin Cooks, is disgruntled and asked to be traded. The team did not end up trading him, and who knows if he will even see the field on Thursday. Either way, motivation is a major issue with Cooks. Otherwise, this is a horrible matchup for Houston, who can not stop the run. We know how great the Eagles are at running the football (2nd best in the NFL in EPA per rush), but this Texans run defense ranks 28th in EPA, 32nd in explosive runs allowed and 31st in yards before contact per rush allowed. That yards before contact allowed is significant because they have not played a difficult schedule of opposing run offenses.

Their opponent’s run offenses rank 3rd worst in the NFL, which means they are getting torched on the ground by a collectively weak set of run offenses. This Eagles run offense is by far the best they will have faced, and the OL/DL mismatch will be glaring. Why I don’t mind laying this kind of number too is the fact that the Eagles can just run out the clock in the 2nd half because of this mismatch. It won’t be a case of running out of time against a team that can stop it.

Philly has faced a reasonably difficult schedule of opposing run defenses, one that sits as 2nd toughest based on EPA allowed. They’ve faced two top 5 run defenses, and five of their seven games have come against top 17 run defenses. This Houston run defense is the worst they will have seen, and against the 23rd (Steelers) and 29th (Lions) ranked run defenses, they’ve posted rush EPA numbers of +0.230 and +0.243 per rush. Those are huge numbers and represent two of the top 18 rush performances by a team this season. And now they get the worst run defense in the NFL. Yikes.

There is a case to be made that the Texans can run the ball on this Eagles defense, but if they are down multiple scores, they will be forced to get away from the run and try and throw to come back – and that’s bad news. Last week the Eagles allowed the Steelers a +0.42 EPA per rush on 144 rush yards, but they still won by 22 points. This Eagles pass defense ranks #1 in efficiency and has allowed the 3rd lowest explosive passes allowed in the NFL. It’s also a pass rush that is 8th best in the NFL. The Texans lost their best weapon behind Cooks last week in Nico Collins, and there just isn’t any ability to create big plays. Who even knows if Cooks will play Thursday, and in that case, it’s a wrap.

The Eagles defense is 2nd in EPA allowed, and the Texans have scored a grand total of 32 points in three games against the three other top 14 defenses they’ve faced (DEN, TEN, JAX). In those games, they were only able to muster two total touchdowns, and both came in the final 3.5 minutes of the 4th quarter. Davis Mills is functional against some of the mediocre to bad defenses that he faces but against top-level defenses, that offense has been atrocious. He is also only 3-5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in his career and 0-2-1 ATS as a 14+ point underdog, losing by 26 and 40 points. This isn’t a case of Mills being able to function as a big underdog. The Texans are dead men walking and the Eagles will stomp all over them.

Get our Eagles vs Texans Same Game Parlay — we’ve cashed 2 straight in primetime games!

Clevta’s best Thursday Night Football prop bet: Eagles first half -7.5 (-110)

In the first half of games, the Eagles lead the NFL with a +89 margin (12.7 ppg) and are 7-0 ATS. They have led by 10, 17, 24, 6, 4, 17 and 11 points. In games as double-digit underdogs the last two seasons, the Texans are 5-6 ATS in the first half of games. As underdogs of 14+, the Texans are 0-3 ATS in the first half and have trailed by at least 12 in all three games.

Lock in Prop Holliday’s best player props for Eagles vs Texans

Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.

He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.

You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.

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