Ricky Dimon
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The Sunday slate in Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season will wrap up with an all-California showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers. Both teams could really use a win. The Chargers are 5-3 but have not been particularly impressive (their point differential is -22 despite being 2 games over .500) and they are once again looking up at Kansas City in the AFC West. San Francisco is 4-4 and trails a surprising Seattle squad in the NFC West.
Below is our SGP for TNF, and also be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers picks on the side and total.
49ers -9.5 alternate spread (+104)
Christian McCaffrey to record 100+ rushing yards (+182)
Justin Herbert over 252.5 passing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +735
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Christian McCaffrey racking up a bunch of yards would obviously work well with a big win for San Francisco. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Justin Herbert to throw for a decent chunk of yards, but even if he does there is no reason why the Niners can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of these legs.
49ers -9.5 alternate spread (+104)
Los Angeles is a significant underdog in this one and with the line now larger than a touchdown I’m willing to play it all the way up to -9.5 in favor of San Francisco. The 49ers can win this game by double digits, in part because the Chargers are dealing with a slew of injuries on offense. Receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both expected to be sidelined and the offensive line is also banged up. The lack of a consistent ground game has been a factor, too, as Austin Ekeler has topped 60 yards only once this season. On the other hand, the 49ers just had a bye week to heal up – and when head coach Kyle Shanahan has an extra week to prepare you know the offensive game-plan is going to be elite.
Christian McCaffrey to record 100+ rushing yards (+182)
There is no reason to have any confidence in the Chargers’ defense. Big free-agent signing J.C. Jackson was a disappointment at cornerback before suffering a season-ending injury and Joey Bosa is still sidelined, leaving the front 7 lacking a punch. Los Angeles is still soft up the middle and susceptible to the run, which any Kyle Shanahan-coached team is going to exploit. In fact, L.A. is dead last in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt allowed (5.7) and it is 4th-to-last in overall rushing defense (145.5 ypg). Shanahan loves to run the ball and McCaffrey was able to use the bye week to fully familiarize himself with the 49ers’ playbook. He had 18 carries in the last game and that was before Jeff Wilson Jr. was traded to Miami. Now McCaffrey has the backfield all to himself. He should turn plenty of opportunities into a ton of yards at the expense of a dreadful Chargers run defense.
Justin Herbert over 252.5 passing yards (-114)
Justin Herbert is down a couple of receivers, but the 49ers are still dealing with a whole host of injuries to their secondary – and really all over the defense. San Francisco is #1 in the league in stopping the run, so the Chargers’ coaching staff would be wise to let Herbert air it out early and often. A big win for the Niners actually correlates nicely with this play, as the visitors will be forced to throw the ball if they are playing from behind. Herbert has exceeded this number in 5 of 8 games this year and even in the 3 exceptions he has come close to it.
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