NFL Week 16 best bets, picks and predictions on Prophet Exchange: Bears can keep it close

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) celebrates after a win against the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field.
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email
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We have arrived at Week 16 of the 2022 NFL campaign, and with the regular season winding down it would be a good time to take your football betting to Prophet Exchange.

If you are not familiar with sports betting exchanges, you might want to take a look at this guide to betting with Prophet Exchange in addition to exchange betting terminology before diving in and making your wagers. As the name suggests, a sports betting exchange is a platform for exchanging bets from one bettor to another without the need for a bookmaker to set the odds for each outcome. Users can either set their own odds and hope another user will be willing to take the bet, or they can peruse the market to see what odds other users are willing to make and jump on one of those offers.

For example, this Sunday the Panthers are +130 underdogs against the Lions (-150) at most sportsbooks. At those books you can only bet on those 2 teams at those 2 prices. With a sports betting exchange, however, that’s not the case. You could try to get Carolina at +145 and if someone is willing to take your offer and grab Detroit at -145 then a match is made.

One especially important aspect of Prophet Exchange that must be noted is against the spread odds are all available at +100 odds as opposed to the -110 juice you generally encounter at most sportsbooks. That is because in an exchange you are betting against other bettors instead of against the sportsbook; and afterward, Prophet Exchange takes a commission from the winnings. Needless to say, making a wager at +100 instead of -110 is a huge advantage – especially adding it up over time.

With that, let’s take a look at some best bets for NFL Week 16 that can be made at Prophet Exchange.

Chicago Bears +9 (-110) vs Buffalo Bills

Buffalo’s offense should be able to run on the Bears’ defense that’s one of the worst in the NFL. Weather will play a factor, as they are expecting 15-20 mph winds in Chicago on Sunday. How much that neutralizes the Bills passing game should be something to watch. The Bears’ defense managed to keep the Eagles’ high-scoring offense to just 25 points last week. Still, because of Justin Fields, the Bears average more yards per point and yards per rush than Buffalo and lead the NFL in rushing yards at home at 213 yards per game on the ground.

That’s enough for me to continue to trust one of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks at home. The Bills are a .500 ATS on the road this season and have only covered one of their last seven games when favored by at least a touchdown. I’ll back the Bears getting more than a touchdown.

Check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears predictions

Carolina Panthers +3 (-110) vs Detroit Lions

The Lions keep on rolling and have inserted themselves into the playoff picture. The Lions escaped with a win over the Jets at MetLife and while the Carolina defense isn’t as good as the Jets, they are giving up just 22 points per game at home. Carolina’s defense continues to assert itself as one of the tougher units in the league. They have 15 sacks over the last 5 weeks and have only allowed 19 points per game over their last three games. How much Carolina’s offense can have success in the run game will likely determine the outcome. If they have success on the ground, they can keep the Lions’ high-scoring offense off the field.

The Lions’ run defense has struggled on the road this year and that should help Carolina control the tempo. The Lions have been great ATS this year going 10-4, but I don’t like them laying points on the road. This is one of those games that will tell you how real the Lions are, especially with this being their second straight-road game. Carolina is 4-1 ATS over their last five games. I’ll take Carolina plus the points.

Check out Pickswise lead betting analyst Jared Smith’s favorite Week 16 plays

New York Giants +4 (-110) vs Minnesota Vikings

Every week, the Vikings find themselves in a close game, and they manage to escape with a victory each time without fail. And while I don’t anticipate the Giants running away with this game, New York is certainly a live underdog in this spot. For starters, the metrics would tell you that the Giants are at least on par with Minnesota, if not better. New York is 21st in weighted DVOA , while Minnesota comes in at 26th per Football Outsiders. That puts the Vikings alongside a slew of non-playoff teams, including the Rams, Raiders, Panthers, Bears and Cardinals. No one would mistake any of those teams as quality opponents, so why should we treat the Vikings as anything different? This is an average football team that is having a phenomenal season in close games where variance is involved.

Against a competent New York defense, Kirk Cousins and company likely won’t be able to move the ball with the ease they have in recent weeks. And on the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s defense has trouble stopping anyone, as the Vikings rank near the bottom in pass DVOA. One thing that the Giants have done well this season is take care of the football, so Minnesota likely won’t be able to generate points from the mistakes of its opponent. This is also a spot where you want to back Daniel Jones, as he is excellent in his career as a road underdog. Jones is 16-5 against the spread when catching points away from home, and this is another situation where the Giants (and their quarterback) are slightly undervalued against a league-average Vikings team that should let New York hang around long enough to cover this current number of over a field goal.

Check out all of our NFL predictions for Week 16

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