NFL Week 18 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Dolphins dispatch Jets to bolster playoff hopes

What a long, strange trip it’s been. The final week of the regular season has arrived. It’s probably the most difficult week to handicap all season because of the varying degrees of motivation or, lack thereof, that exists across the league. We’ve already seen volatile swings in the market in short periods of time, which is normally the case in the NFL, but it’s even more pronounced this week.

Regardless of the difficulty level, it’s my job to help guide you through the madness. Thankfully I have help as our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook also offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Week 18 market update: Framing the playoff picture, in chronological order

Timing is everything. The order of play for this week’s games is a crucial element that can easily be overlooked when handicapping Week 18. For example, by the time the Detroit Lions play their Sunday night game at Lambeau Field they may already be eliminated from the playoffs based on results from earlier in the day.

More on that game in a bit, but you get my point. So the format for this week’s column takes this into account and will be a guide through what should be a scintillating 36 hours of football.

Lock in our NFL Best Bets — we’re 48-38 this season!

Saturday afternoon: How the west was won

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs provide a proper lid lifter to the weekend. Since the NFL decided to move on without rescheduling the Bills-Bengals game, that means Kansas City can clinch the top seed with a win over the Raiders in this game on Saturday night and remove some of the drama from Buffalo and Cincinnati in the early window on Sunday. More on that in a bit.

More about the NFL cancelling the Bills-Bengals game and adjusting the postseason schedule, via @Ben_Baby:https://t.co/wJ5D034iTM

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 6, 2023

The Chiefs are 5-11 ATS this season overall and 2-6 when favored by a touchdown or more. That trend plus the play of Jarrett Stidham last week makes me think Vegas might have a chance to keep this game close, but I think the best betting angle here is the total.

The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams with an average combined total of 60.9 points. Considering 3 of those 5 games had a closing total of 53 or higher I think we are getting a very reasonable price here at 52.5, likely because of the downgrade from Carr to Stidham.

“Mahomes loves playing against the Raiders,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “It’s a stand-alone game, and the Vegas secondary leaves a lot to be desired. We saw some sharp money on KC -7.5 and then some sharp buy back on the Raiders +9.5. Stidham did look okay, and he is auditioning to have a role next year. The total is up a full 3 points from where we opened Sunday afternoon from 49.5 to 52.5.”

There is also a betting angle revolving around Patrick Mahomes and the all-time single season passing record. For more details please read my best incentive and milestone props. 

Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Raiders predictions

Saturday night: Song of the AFC south

These 2 teams are heading in completely opposite directions heading into the climax of a very mediocre division. Tennessee will start Josh Dobbs at QB despite 4 turnover worthy plays and a -9.6 CPOE against the Cowboys last week, but that just shows how behind Malik Willis is in his early development stage.

The Jaguars look like a playoff team, with the 7th highest point differential in the NFL at +50. Trevor Lawrence has evolved under Doug Pederson, jumping from 31st in EPA+CPOE last year all the way up to 10th this season.

From a betting standpoint, I probably wouldn’t feel comfortable laying a full touchdown in this spot. It might make a decent teaser leg if it gets back up to 7 but it looks like it’s trending in the other direction.

I can see many scenarios where Mike Vrabel’s scrappy bunch are up for this challenge. They still have Derrick Henry, who averaged 7 yards per carry the last time these teams played, despite fumbling twice. The Titans committed 4 total turnovers in that game and Jacksonville won easily 36-22.

“Can’t fully trust either side,” added Degnon. “Some respected money on the Titans +7 and the Jaguars -6. Decent two-way action so far with slightly more tickets and money on Tennessee. Sitting this one out as I’m sweating Jags to win the south from October.”

To me the best betting angles in this game are props for the Jacksonville pass catchers, most of which have incentive bonuses in their contract. Please refer back to my contract incentive column for more details.

Be sure to check out our full Titans vs Jaguars predictions

Sunday early window: The race for seeding

Let’s assume the Chiefs win on Sunday night, which would make Patriots-Bills and Ravens-Bengals much less important from a seeding standpoint. However Cincinnati can still move up to the 2-seed with a win and a Buffalo loss, which would flip home-field in a potential divisional round matchup.

The Steelers, Dolphins, and Patriots are all still alive for the final AFC wild card spot. New England is in the driver’s seat and can get in with a win over the Bills. Buffalo is currently 7-point favorites in that game but it is very hard to gauge their mindset and focus this week. I think they react positively on the field, especially after the encouraging news about Damar Hamlin’s status this week, but there is certainly a lot of variance with their situation.

Pittsburgh has the longest odds of the trio to make the postseason, which is why they might be the most overvalued team as nearly a 3-point favorite this week against the Browns. Despite that the Steelers are getting a lot of love in the market this week.

“This is a pass for me,” added Degnon. “Pittsburgh obviously in the must win situation but that doesn’t always work out for those teams. We are seeing one-way traffic on the Steelers here but looking at the market it looks like those 3’s lasted less than a day.”

Miami is also still in the mix, and I think they are in a good position against a Jets team that looked lifeless in Seattle last week. More on them in a bit.

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Sunday late window: Beasts of the NFC East

Two of the biggest market moves this week occurred with both NFC East games. The Eagles losing to the Saints opened things up for the Cowboys to clinch the top seed along with the Niners. Also the Giants clinching and Commanders being eliminated sent their numbers flying in the opposite direction. The result is Philly a full 14-point favorite against New York and Dallas a full 7-point road favorite in Washington.

To me neither game offers any real betting value, and I would be surprised if we didn’t see both favorites win outright. The upside of Sam Howell could offer some slight value on the Commanders, but while the ceiling is certainly higher than Carson Wentz, the floor might be just as low or even lower, which is hard to fathom.

The best standalone game during this window is out west with the Rams traveling to Seattle in what has become a bitter NFC West rivalry. The Seahawks need a win and a Green Bay loss later that night in order to clinch a playoff spot.

The lookahead here was Seahawks -3, which got pushed all the way to 6.5 at reopen last Sunday. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from betting the NFL over the years, when a line moves more than 3 points from the lookahead and there are no QB injuries or mass benching of starters involved, which neither are in play here, it’s probably moved too much. Especially this late in the season when the market has had months to sharpen itself.

We saw a similar situation play out with our best bet last week in the Panthers-Bucs game. Tampa went from -6.5 to -3 virtually overnight. The Bucs ended up covering the closing number, but not the original lookahead as they won by 6.

“I do think Seattle is a little overvalued here as well,” added Degnon. “Mike White looked awful, (probably hurt) and I think that game was more bad Jets than good Seahawks. Yes, looks like 6.5 was the peak where we saw some sharp buy back.”

The Seahawks are just 1-3 ATS when favored by more than a field goal, and the last time they were a home favorite was 3 weeks ago when they got run over by the Carolina Panthers.

Sunday night: Finale at Lambeau

What else needs to be said this week other than Aaron Rodgers in primetime with the playoffs hanging in the balance. I haven’t noticed much action here from the lookahead of Packers -3 after it reopened at -4.5 on Sunday. That’s currently where things are at the time of publication.

“Line seems about right, maybe a pinch inflated but not enough to have me on Detroit,” added Degnon. “Tickets and money are pretty even so far, the line hasn’t really moved so the market agrees, good number.”

The glaring issue with the timing of this game is the fact that by the time it’s played Detroit might already be eliminated from the playoffs. The NFL will certainly be rooting for the Rams to beat the Seahawks and add a ton of drama to the final game of the regular season.

The Lions have been a scrappy bunch this season and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. I think it’s impossible to bet this game from a side perspective before seeing what happens in Seattle first, because that result will absolutely move this line, maybe all the way to 7 if Seattle wins and eliminates Detroit.

Week 18 Best Bet: Dolphins pk (-110)

There is a lot of uncertainty with the Dolphins quarterback situation this week, so you can expect this number to fluctuate violently if and when a starter is confirmed. At the time of publication, all 3 QBs on the roster were still in the mix to start. Tua is the biggest longshot of the bunch, and as of Wednesday has not yet returned to practice while being officially listed as doubtful.

Miami also signed Mike Glennon to the practice squad, which is a clear indicator Tua is unlikely to be cleared from concussion protocol this week. Teddy Bridgewater’s injured pinky isn’t as severe as once thought, and as long as he can grip a football, would be next in line to get the start.

If neither of those 2 are healthy enough to play, it would be rookie Skylar Thompson under center this week in the biggest game of the season for Miami. Obviously this is a tough situation to handicap from a betting perspective as QB has the biggest impact on the point spread, but frankly I don’t really care who starts for the Dolphins this week, and I’m willing to risk a point or two of CLV with Thompson on the off chance Tua or Bridgewater returns, which would likely mean Miami closes a favorite.

“I see a drop-off (from Bridgewater to Thompson) but not sure if big is the right adjective,” added Degnon. “This line has been all over the place, anywhere from Miami +1 to -4. We did take some respected money on the Dolphins today -1 pushing us to -2 where we sit right now.”

The real crux of this handicap revolves around the Jets recent failures on offense, and why this matchup is of particular concern. First let’s start with the Jets issues, which begin at the top with OC Mike Lafleur’s inept play-calling. The Jets have the 2nd lowest success rate in the NFL on early downs this season, which are a more predictive category than 3rd and 4th down success.

This problem was on full display Sunday in Seattle, when Mike White had the 2nd lowest EPA+CPOE of any QB last week and 3rd lowest on early downs. White is clearly not yet 100% from his painful rib injury suffered less than a month ago in Buffalo, and I don’t expect him to be at full strength this week either. Miami’s defense has been the furthest thing from a dominant unit this season, ranked 26th in EPA/play while allowing a 47% success rate on dropbacks. But the one thing they do excel in is getting pressure on the quarterback.

The Dolphins are 3rd this season in pass-rush win rate, and have 3 dangerous weapons who all create havoc up front. Jalean Phillips is the best of the bunch, compiling 63 pressures and 9 sacks this season. He’s been held in check the last 2 weeks, but that was against the Patriots and Packers, 2 of the best offensive lines in the league. Christian Wilkins and Melvin Ingram have also combined for 53 pressures and 12 sacks this season and must be accounted for in the pass rush.

Meanwhile the Jets offensive line has been a glaring weakness of late, and they did not hold up well Sunday against a much less talented Seahawks pass rush. The Jets allowed a whopping 24 pressures against Seattle, while White was hurried 17 times with 2 sacks and 5 additional hits. Miami’s pass rush should have similar if not more success this week, and I don’t think Mike White will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage of the Dolphins weakness in the secondary.

As long as Skylar Thompson doesn’t throw the game away, I think Miami will have more than enough offensively to get the job done. Obviously if Bridgewater or Tua end up starting, the Dolphins will close a favorite here and I will feel even better about their chances.

Week 18 portfolio:

Dolphins pk -110 (risk 3.3u)

Chiefs/Raiders o52.5 -110 (risk 2.2u)

Seahawks +6.5 -110 (risk 2.2u)

NFL 2022 column: 32-29-1, -0.62u (-0.5% ROI)

 

NFL 2022 best bets: 9-8, -0.17u (-0.4% ROI)