It took a few Game 7s, but the second round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs is finally set. The action gets started tonight with the Panthers vs Maple Leafs. These Atlantic Division rivals featured in the biggest storylines in the first round. Florida knocked out the record-setting Boston Bruins, while the Leafs got their revenge on the Tampa Bay Lightning by eliminating them after that happened to them last year. We’re going to have some of the league’s biggest superstars on the ice for this series, so we’ve got a Same Game Parlay for Game 1.
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The Leafs are the clear favorite to win this series, which isn’t surprising. In fact, they’re now the favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Panthers have already shown they can overcome even great odds, so I’m certainly not writing them off. However, with the extra rest heading into Game 1, I’m rolling with Toronto on home ice.
Florida is coming off an emotionally and physically exhausting series with a great Boston team, while the Leafs knocked out Tampa Bay on Saturday. With the Bruins now out of the picture as well, this really could be Toronto’s year. Having the home-ice advantage for this series should also go a long way. They ended the regular season with the 3rd-best home record at 28-8-5. With that in mind, they also defeated the Panthers in both of their matchups in Toronto. I expect an exciting series overall, but for Toronto to win tonight’s Game 1.
With such incredible skating talent on the ice, it may be surprising that we’re taking the under. However, the Leafs were able to make it this far by improving their goaltending. Keep in mind that this is the first time they’ve made it beyond the first round since 2004. Despite the star-studded roster, goaltending has always let them down.
They made that a priority and finished the year allowing the 7th-fewest goals per game. Better yet, they allowed the 5th-fewest per game at home. This is also supported by looking at the most recent matchups between these teams. At the end of March, they totaled just 5 goals, and their last meeting just 3 weeks saw just 3 goals scored. Toronto also advanced past the Lightning by holding them to just a single goal. We may have a case where goals increase as the series goes along, but things could start slowly.
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It may seem strange to target a goalscorer after taking the under, but Matthews is no average skater. A low-scoring Game 1 doesn’t mean no one will score, and Matthews is in great form. Let’s not forget that he became the first American-born skater to record a 60-goal season last year. He didn’t quite hit that mark this year, but he certainly feasted on Florida. Across their 4 meetings this year, Matthews recorded 5 goals.
Mitch Marner has been his main assist man, so I’d suggest taking Marner’s assist prop as a play on the side as well. Matthews rolled over his success against the Panthers into the first round. He scored 5 goals against the Lightning, who have arguably the best goaltender in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy. With Florida already having question marks in net between Alex Lyon and Sergei Bobrovsky, Matthews can continue that success.
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