Super Bowl Odds: Biggest Odds Movements Post-NFL Draft

We take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in Super Bowl LIV betting odds since the 2020 NFL Draft.

First, I thought the 2020 NFL Draft coverage was excellent. ABC, ESPN, and the NFL Network did a great job of giving NFL fans a break from the global COVID-19 pandemic, and the NFL Draft went exceptionally well. I particularly enjoyed an insight into the NFL GM’s and head coaches’ houses; you had Jerry Jones on a $250m yacht, Kliff Kingsbury’s insane home in Arizona, and Zach Taylor, who looked like he was in someone’s basement.

Anyway, let’s take a look at how the three-day virtual extravaganza affected the betting market.

Pre-Draft Super Bowl Odds

Before the 2020 NFL Draft, this is how the betting market looked.

🏈 Pre-Draft Super Bowl Odds 🏈

Chiefs +600
Ravens +700
49ers +900
Saints +1200
Bucs +1200
Eagles +1800
Patriots +2000
Seahawks+2000
Cowboys +2200
Packers +2200
Bills +2800
Colts +2800
Vikings +2800
Steelers +2800
Titans +2800
Bears +3300
Browns +3300
Rams +3300
Falcons +4000 pic.twitter.com/RZAXIzywdF

— Pickswise (@Pickswise) April 23, 2020

There had already been some significant movement in the market during the off-season so far, which I’ll quickly run over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (60/1 to 12/1)

After signing Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady from the New England Patriots, it’s no surprise to see the price on the Bucs collapse. It does leave me with more questions, though, is this movement an overreaction? Are they now too short, and how good can the Bucs be in 2020?.

Arizona Cardinals (80/1 to 50/1)

The Cardinals were the beneficiaries of one the most head-scratching offseason trades in recent years. They acquired Wide Receiver, Deandre Hopkins, in exchange for David Johnson, a 2020 second-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick. We outlined the Cardinals as one of our best Super Bowl longshots before the Draft, and they picked up one of the most talented defensive players in the draft at #8 overall, Isaiah Simmons.

It’s no surprise that since the above news, two teams have drifted badly in the betting market—the New England Patriots from 12/1 to 20/1 and the Houston Texans from 30/1 to 50/1.

So let’s look at who won the Draft from futures betting odds point of view. The method for this is merely comparing the pre and post-draft odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Post-Draft Winners

Dallas Cowboys +2200 to +1800

Draft analysts are high on the Cowboys draft prospects, and that seems to be reflected in the betting market. They made a great value pick getting CeeDee Lamb at #17, and Daniel Jeremiah ranked Defensive End, Bradlee Anae, as one of his best value picks of the entire Draft. They were also awarded a top-five grade from ESPN’s Mel Kiper and strengthened in areas that they needed to – Wide Receiver, Center, Defensive Line, and Cornerback.

Miami Dolphins +8000 to +6600

Tanking for Tua came to life when the Dolphins took the Alabama Quarterback at #5 overall. They also got him some protection with Tackle Austin Jackson, and Guards Robert Hunt and Solomon Kindley. If Tua’s health concerns are cleared later in the year, expect the Dolphins price to fall even further.

Minnesota Vikings +2800 to +2500

The Vikings drafted an NFL-record 15 players this year, and they added three extra picks for the 2021 draft. They addressed team needs and added players who will make plug straight into the starting line up with Justin Jefferson, Jeff Gladney, and Ezra Cleveland.

Honorable mentions to the New York Jets +7000 to +6600, Detroit Lions +6600 to +6000 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200 to +1100

Post-Draft Losers

Chicago Bears +3300 to +5000

It was always going to be difficult for the Chicago Bears to make an impact in the 2020 NFL Draft when they didn’t have picks in rounds 1, 3, and 4. They addressed Tight End with the best one in the Draft Cole Kmet and Cornerback with Jaylon Johnson, both of which will be starters. Outside of that they still need help at Wide Receiver and offensive line, it looks like the betting market agree that the Bears still need help on the offensive side of the ball if they’re to make a challenge this season.

Green Bay Packers +2200 to +2800

Another NFC North team that slid in the betting market was the Green Bay Packers. There has been outrage from Packers fans across social media throughout the whole draft process. They made strange moves early, drafting up to get Quarterback Jordan Love in the first round, and then took a third-string Running Back A.J. Dillon in the second. It looks like a definite shift in Matt LaFleur’s offense after not drafting a Wide Receiver in a deep class. Instead, they selected three Offensive Linemen and a run blocking Tight End. They clearly want to run the ball downhill and use play-action pass off it.

Oakland Raiders +5000 to +6000

Talking of strange moves early on, step forward the Las Vegas Raiders who drafted Cornerback Damon Arnette with their second pick in the first round.  This earnt them one of the worst first-round pick grades. They also added three Wide Receivers with their first four picks, and have their own version of Tyreek Hill with speedster Henry Ruggs III. The drift in the betting market might be due to the fact they didn’t take a Quarterback. Jordan Love was still on the board with both first-round picks, but they passed, will that be a decision they regret?

Honorable mentions to the Seattle Seahawks +2000 to +2200, Buffalo Bills +2800 to +3300, Philadelphia Eagles +1800 to +2000, New Orleans Saints +1200 to +1400, San Francisco 49ers +900 to +1000 and Carolina Panthers +8000 to +10000.