The Dog House: NFL Week 5 best underdog bets, picks and predictions - Cardinals have a shot

Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz (86) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the second half at State Farm Stadium.
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Phil Agius


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I've been writing about the NFL and a host of other sports for the UK's top daily betting paper the Racing Post for more than 20 years. An incurable Browns fan (1-31 survivor), I also specialise in all kinds of motorsport betting including F1, MotoGP, IndyCar and NASCAR. For Phil Agius media enquiries, please email
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Underdogs are already 1-0 in NFL Week 5 after 3-point ‘dogs the Indianapolis Colts overcame the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football, but more favorites should be toppled on Sunday and we’ll be trying to locate those upsets in this article. We have found three underdogs that could outperform their odds this weekend, or even be pretty terrible and still cover, as the Colts did!

Let’s take a look at our best underdog bets for Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season.

We have NFL picks for every game on the Week 5 slate

Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-114) over Philadelphia Eagles

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

There are a couple of double-digit underdogs this week and 6 teams in all getting starts of a converted touchdown and more. However, the 3 underdog plays I like best this week are all sitting in that area between a field goal and a TD start at 5.5 points. If they win or even lose by 3 or 4 points, we’ll be fine with that. Top of the list is the Arizona Cardinals, who are taking on the NFL’s final remaining unbeaten team, the Eagles. The Cardinals are the sort of team it’s hard to trust as favorites as you never really know what you’re going to get from them, but that variance makes them dangerous underdogs when they’re clutching a bundle of free points in their hand. The Cardinals are home ‘dogs too, although they are 0-2 at home this season after losses to tough teams in the Chiefs and Rams, but they have looked a lot better recently than they did in that dreadful opening loss to Kansas City.

The Eagles have impressed to this point, but they have not faced the toughest schedule of any team in the league, far from it, with the Vikings and Jaguars their most notable victims to date. The Lions pulled off a backdoor cover against the Eagles in Week 1 and it’s perfectly realistic to see the Cardinals either hanging with Philly throughout in a close game or doing something similar themselves. Howard Bender makes the Cardinals a 3-star play in his Eagles vs Cardinals preview and they do look lively underdogs.

Seattle Seahawks +5.5 (-107) over New Orleans Saints

Odds available at PointsBet Sportsbook at time of publishing

It turns out the Seahawks are a better team this season than many people thought — either that or they’re even worse at tanking. Seattle is off to a 2-2 start after claiming wins over the Broncos and Lions, and while the value of that Denver win is being diminished by the week, they are not exactly facing a juggernaut this week in the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Saints are asked to give up 5.5 points to the surprisingly sprightly Seahawks despite having 3 losses and a 1-point win over the Falcons on their 2022 record to date. They can be forgiven the loss to the Buccaneers but losing to the 2022 Carolina Panthers is not something they will be proud of.

The Saints got close to taking the Vikings to overtime in London last week, but their late rally masked the fact that they were clearly second-best for most of the game, and not having a bye week after their international trip also makes this a tough spot for the Saints. With the Seahawks rallying behind QB Geno Smith, they can put up another sparky display.

We are 18-6 on NFL best bets this season! Get the top picks from our experts for Week 5

Dallas Cowboys +5.5 (-110) over Los Angeles Rams

Odds available at FanDuel, DraftKings & BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing

Few Cowboys fans would have dared to dream that they might win 3 straight games with Cooper Rush at quarterback after Dak Prescott went down. It may not last and making it 4 wins against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday will be far from easy. However, the Cowboys are also getting a 5.5-point start for this game, which means there are a lot of scorelines by which they could lose and still cover the spread. Only the Monday night win at the Giants was on the road, so Rush has largely had it relatively easy, and this is a much longer trip, but the Cowboys have shown enough to suggest they can stay competitive as their injury-hit receiving corps heals up.

Super Bowl champions Los Angeles have 2 losses of 15-plus points on their record already, plus single-digit wins over the Falcons and Cardinals. The Cowboys are far from the worst team they have faced this season, and Micah Parsons could make his mark on a Rams offensive line that surrendered 7 sacks to the 49ers. Dallas looks well worth a shot as an underdog of this magnitude.

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