Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/28/25

With so many games on the NFL Week 4 card, a game between the Browns and Lions in Detroit is not one that will be top of mind for many bettors. While Cleveland was expected to be among the worst teams in football heading into the season, the Browns have honestly put together a handful of pretty decent data points through the first 3 weeks. After all, Cleveland should’ve beaten the Bengals to open the campaign, put up a respectable showing on defense in a loss to the Ravens and finally picked up a much-needed victory over the Green Bay Packers as massive road underdogs a week ago. However, despite the fact that the Browns have certainly exceeded expectations to this point, this is a spot where the home favorite is the recommend side in this game. 

For starters, the Browns defense has been one that I’ve backed on multiple occasions already this season. However, we’re now getting to the point where Cleveland might be a bit overrated in the market. After all, the Browns are still 15th in EPA per play on defense, along with sitting at 28th in rush yards allowed and 21st in EPA per pass, yet they’re getting treated like an elite unit. It also took a bit of turnover luck for the Browns to knock off Green Bay in overtime a week ago, as the Cleveland offense is certainly not doing this team any favors (30th in EPA per play, 31st in success rate). On the other side of things, Detroit has bounced back nicely over the last two weeks following a difficult loss against the Packers in Week 1. The Lions appear to have their swagger back and Dan Campbell’s team has certainly established itself as one of the premier sides in football following a pair of dominant victories over Chicago and Baltimore in recent weeks. The re-addition of Aidan Hutchinson back into the lineup has certainly been a shot in the arm for this Lions defense, and this is a spot where I’ll trust the Detroit offense to put up another solid performance at home. 

Browns vs Lions prediction: Lions -9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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Despite the fact that I have some moderate concerns with the Browns defense, this is still a unit that will show up and should be able to generate pressure on the opposing quarterback regardless of opponent. After all, Cleveland pressured Jordan Love a whopping 22 times a week ago, so even though that Detroit should have the Browns beat from a line of scrimmage perspective, there should still be a solid effort put forth by a Browns defense that has shown the ability to at least marginally slow down elite offenses. On the other side, the Cleveland offense is a massive issue at the moment, as Joe Flacco and company have struggled massively to move the ball and score with any regularity to this point. Let’s take the under in Detroit.

Under 45.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.